Donald Trump is about to win the Republican nomination. Moreover, he may do so even if he loses Indiana.
My rationale is Trump is going to pick up a big mass of the Pennsylvania uncommitted delegates, far more than I put in his pocket.
NBC News reports Trump Wins Big Among Pennsylvania’s Unbound Delegates.
NBC News reached out to all 54 delegate winners after the polls closed Tuesday night. Interviews reveal that as of Thursday morning 37 delegates said they intend to support Trump on the first ballot at the convention — a number that could rise north of 40 when the final ten delegates are reached.
In comparison, rival Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has so far only obtained the support of two delegates and Gov. John Kasich received none.
Eight delegates remain uncommitted to any candidate. They have until the first ballot at the convention to decide their vote (and any of the 54 could technically change their minds any time before that first vote).
Of the 35 delegates who said they’d support Trump, 25 won their election to be delegates Tuesday openly supporting the Republican front runner, reflecting the popular vote results in the state.
At least two outside groups opposed to Trump, Our Principles PAC and NeverTrump PAC had been working to elect anti-Trump delegates.
NeverTrump PAC released an anti-Trump slate of delegates ahead of the vote. Of the 39 endorsements, only four of the delegates with contested races won.
Ridiculous New York Times Headline
Contrast the above headline and analysis with the ridiculous New York Times headline Pennsylvania, Unbound Delegates Remain Wary of Donald Trump.
It appears to me the Times headline should have said, “Pennsylvania, Unbound Delegates Remain Wary of Ted Cruz“.
I estimated Trump would win Indiana, picking up 45 delegates in the process. Let’s instead assume he only wins 4 of 9 legislative districts, picking up a mere 12 delegates in the process.
The 37 votes Trump picked up in Pennsylvania will more than cover the loss.
Trump picked up four more than my original (and unrevised) estimate in New York. Trump also picked up 9 more than my original estimate of 19 in Connecticut.
Note Silver’s original estimate of 71 vs. my estimate of 86 made at the same time. Also note my revision to a Connecticut sweep whereas Silver’s revised estimate was from 19 to 23. The DETERM (deterministic) column represents Silver’s “most likely” assessment.
I did subtract 9 from my California estimate giving Trump a bit of a cushion. With the pickup of 4 in NY and 37 in Pennsylvania, Trump can still win even if he loses Indiana.
My original (and revised) estimates had Trump with 1224 delegates, needing a mere 13 uncommitted delegates. He is going to have at least 37.
Even if Trump loses Indiana, he does not need a miracle finish in California, just a good one and polls are very favorable for that.
If Trump does win Indiana, as I expect, it’s all over.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Judy Morris said:
Don’t forget about New Jersey’s 51 delegates that CRUZ definitely will not be getting. Nate Silver is still giving Indiana to Cruz despite the fact that Trump is ahead in every poll.
Nate Silver & 538 have been exposed… you won’t see many more citations/references to 538 content… simply not credible given their obvious bias.
Bill Fawell said:
Trump will do better in Indiana Mish, you’ll see. No worries, it’s a thousand miles from Wisconsin. I know, it’s 8 from where I live and it’s still 500 miles away, ask anyone…
I’m waiting to see how Cruz does in the Ontario and Quebec primary election… My, my, how quickly the public forgets.
Billy Walrus said:
EXACTLY! How conveniently everyone forgets that Cruz is not even a US citizen! His mother renounced her US citizenship before he was born and he has no right to even live in the US let alone run for office. He should be prosecuted for immigration fraud and then deported to Cuba after serving a long prison sentence.
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All this is meaningless.
This is our last election. This summer we cross the event horizon.
can you provide any hints? I’m very curious about what it is that you see on our horizon…
…because I see one or two calamities unfolding, too. Just wondering if we’re on the same page…
Yancey Ward said:
In regards to the NYTimes headline, this is an indication of some real panic on the Left. For the longest time during last year and into the first half of this year’s primary process, the Left basically cheered the way forward for Trump, supremely confident that the chaos would hurt the Republican Party and that whoever emerged as the candidate would be damaged by Trump being shut out or, if Trump prevailed, the Democratic candidate would have a cakewalk over Trump. I think, in the last few weeks, that it is dawning on the Left that Trump won’t be easily defeated, and might well be the strongest of the candidates the Republicans actually had in the race.
I am going to restate a prediction I made a few weeks back when it started to become clearer that Trump vs Clinton was a real possibility- Clinton is the candidate that gets dumped at a convention, not Trump.
The media must agree with you Mish as they have begun publishing all the opposition research they have been sitting on. Very unflattering pieces in Politico and GQ magazine. The 2 billion in largely positive free media coverage he received to help make him the nominee will now be used to insure Hillary wins the White House.
A civil lawsuit was filed in CA alleging Trump raped an underage girl with convicted sex predator Jeffrey Epstein. (Trump has previously made statements praising Epstein as a friend.) He also faces at lease three lawsuits alleging fraud filed in CA, FL, and NY. The CA and FL suits are being brought by former students of Trump University, but the NY suit is spear headed by the NY attorney general. One court in NY has already ruled against Trump saying he has to pay restitution to 800 consumers for running an unlicensed school.
It’s going to be a very long summer for Donald J. Trump.
None of this stuff will stick… you are kidding yourself.
Start planning for a Trump presidency.
Carl R. said:
You are correct. The press has deliberately given him a pass on these issues so far. Once he is the nominee, and he will be, the white gloves will come off. The attacks will be vicious, and continuous. As another poster has commented, the issue is not whether Trump will be attacked by the press, but as to how much will stick. I don’t think the attacks will hurt his core support, but I think it will significantly affect his negatives in undecided voters.
My like button is not working. I agree his core support is solid at about 40 percent. As a women I see him as thoroughly disgusting and definitely not someone who can be trusted. I’ve voted for other candidates who I disagreed with, but never for someone who so repels me. I try to exclude emotion and examine this on just a risk/reward basis, but surprisingly I have not been able to do so.