For the second time in the past couple weeks New York Times writer Nate Cohn posted nearly the same article as I did, after I did.
April 28 Mish: Trump Picks Up at Least 37 Unbound Pennsylvania Delegates: Revised Mish Delegate Math
I estimated Trump would win Indiana, picking up 45 delegates in the process. Let’s instead assume he only wins 4 of 9 legislative districts, picking up a mere 12 delegates in the process.
The 37 votes Trump picked up in Pennsylvania will more than cover the loss.
Even if Trump loses Indiana, he does not need a miracle finish in California, just a good one and polls are very favorable for that.
April 29 Nate Cohn: Donald Trump Doesn’t Need Indiana Anymore
Curiously, the article is posted as April 28 but check out the link timestamp: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/upshot/donald-trump-doesnt-need-indiana-anymore.html?_r=0
Sure, winning the state would be very helpful toward gaining a majority of delegates. Without Indiana, he would struggle to get the 1,237 bound delegates needed to wrap up the nomination heading into the convention. But there’s now a credible path to winning on the first ballot without it.
The main reason is Mr. Trump’s success on Tuesday among Pennsylvania’s 54 unpledged delegates. Even though none of them are officially bound to a candidate, 31 of the 54 spots went to delegates preferred by Mr. Trump.
April 7 Mish: Mish Projection: Trump Wins Nomination with 1,246 Delegates (9 More than Needed)
April 8 Nate Cohn: Donald Trump’s Path to 1,237 Is Not Mission Impossible
The above two articles were nearly the same. The key difference was I stated a belief Trump would win, but Cohn merely stated it was “not mission impossible”.
I wrote about the differences on April 8 in New York Times Concludes “Trump’s Path to 1,237 Is Not Mission Impossible”.
Once again, I am not accusing Nate Cohn of reading my blog. But I can say I did get things out faster than he did.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
California has a closed Republican primary. None of the rioters are registered Republicans. Riots stimulate the Trump voters. Trump could sweep California.
Diogenes of Sinope said:
Trump couldn’t sweep New York. He lost in Manhattan, his home borough.
Wall Street dislikes him, could that be yet another reason to vote for him?
In 1932 Franklin Delano Roosevelt swept the presidential elections, but he lost in Dutchess County, NY where his mansion is located.
In his recent speeches Trump believes he has the votes and delegates for the nomination sewn up. So do I. After the riots at his California appearance yesterday I think it will motivate more people to vote for him.
I recall at the start of the campaign season when many political analyst pundits and media hacks publicly proclaimed that Trump would get washed out either before the first primary in Iowa or shortly thereafter. They were all over Fox and CNN and MSNBC. They continuously mocked and belittled Trump for even tossing his hat into the ring.
I wish someone would research those broadcasts and media reports and “out” all those who claimed Trump didn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of being a finalist, let alone the GOP nominee. I hate it when the so-called experts step in it up to their thigh and don’t get exposed after the fact.
Listen to the narrative on Fox and within the Republican party:
Huckabee admits that many of the protesters are the same ones that have been seen at the G20 protests and several others… paid actors. The protesters were portrayed as Mexican illegals Rubio appears to be warming up to Trump as of yesterday. Speaker of the House Ryan seems to taken a big gulf of STFU.
The hand writing is on the wall… in indelible magic Marker. ITS FINALLY OVER! So Sweet!
Behold a Pale Horace said:
It’s not over until the fat harpy loses.
One thing I don’t understand is why those rioters today in Burlingame are waving Mexican flags? What’s their point? They’re in the US, and yet they still love Mexico?
Perhaps they think that California is a Mexican state … or should be.
Here is an idea for a ballot initiative (California): Should California leave the United States of America and, if so, should it petition to join Mexico, India or China?
The results of such an initiative would be revelatory of the real state of play in the “golden” state.
“When they outlaw Big Walls, Only Obama will have one”!
Donald Trump Taunts Obama Plan to Build ‘Strong, Tall, Beautiful Walls’ Around White House
These people have little to no idea of their history. They have no idea of who their forefathers are, because many are the descendants of cultures that were overwhelmed by a superior European culture. And now “Indian” is a pejorative term and a mark of shame in the resulting mishmash culture. And so the ambiguous term “Hispanic” or worse “Latino” is used to describe these people.
The native American tribes that populated North America were distinct from the Mayans and Incas of central and south America. The protesting Mexicans who believe they have claims to California do not, and are as ignorant of this fact as they are of their own history.
Weirdly, the powers that be are registering the hell out of in state Mexican immigrants prior to the primary. I don’t think they want to help Hillary crush Bernie. I think they intend to try to stop trump this way.
In other news Ted Cruz in basketball crazy Indiana malappropriately called a basketball hoop a basketball ring.
Anyway. You heard it here first.
Apparently John Wayne said, “Why would you give power to a bunch of uneducated idiots?” Nothing racist about that. Uneducated idiots were understandably offended.
As a voter in Indiana this year it looks like my vote will matter more than usual. One message being made clear during this primary season is that it would be wise not to underestimate the growing discontent and angst of the American people.
In all honesty if Trump is elected he has more to lose in prestige if he preforms poorly than anyone else currently running, I only wish all politicians were so motivated. For more on how and why I and many other voters in Indiana are leaning to vote for Trump see the article below.
As of this morning the “second” yard-sign has been taken from my front yard and been replaced by a religious booklet. It seems a all out press from the far right!
I have a friend here in local media who’s been encouraged to “research and borrow heavily” from blogs for material. She thinks it’s dishonest, especially considering that it’s almost an admission that the people in major media outlets have no clue. In case you haven’t noticed, many media are losing money right and left and they’re looking at blogs that have decent traffic to use similar material. If you see more patterns like this, I suggest that you document them like you do, as it will help show that you are the credible person and not the mainstream media person borrowing or copying your content.