For the second time in the past couple weeks New York Times writer Nate Cohn posted nearly the same article as I did, after I did.
I estimated Trump would win Indiana, picking up 45 delegates in the process. Let’s instead assume he only wins 4 of 9 legislative districts, picking up a mere 12 delegates in the process.
The 37 votes Trump picked up in Pennsylvania will more than cover the loss.
Even if Trump loses Indiana, he does not need a miracle finish in California, just a good one and polls are very favorable for that.
April 29 Nate Cohn: Donald Trump Doesn’t Need Indiana Anymore
Curiously, the article is posted as April 28 but check out the link timestamp: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/upshot/donald-trump-doesnt-need-indiana-anymore.html?_r=0
Sure, winning the state would be very helpful toward gaining a majority of delegates. Without Indiana, he would struggle to get the 1,237 bound delegates needed to wrap up the nomination heading into the convention. But there’s now a credible path to winning on the first ballot without it.
The main reason is Mr. Trump’s success on Tuesday among Pennsylvania’s 54 unpledged delegates. Even though none of them are officially bound to a candidate, 31 of the 54 spots went to delegates preferred by Mr. Trump.
April 8 Nate Cohn: Donald Trump’s Path to 1,237 Is Not Mission Impossible
The above two articles were nearly the same. The key difference was I stated a belief Trump would win, but Cohn merely stated it was “not mission impossible”.
I wrote about the differences on April 8 in New York Times Concludes “Trump’s Path to 1,237 Is Not Mission Impossible”.
Once again, I am not accusing Nate Cohn of reading my blog. But I can say I did get things out faster than he did.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock