In the nowcasting business, the ever-optimistic “Blue Chip” forecasters lead the way, expecting GDP will rise by 2.3% in the second quarter.

The initial reading by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, released today, is 1.8%.

The New York Fed Nowcast is a mere 0.8%.

GDPNow 2016-04-29

New York Fed Nowcast

NY Nowcast 2016-04-29

New York Fed Analysis

  • This week’s advance GDP release was 0.5% (0.54% when taken to two digits) which is close to the latest nowcast of 0.7% (0.72% to two digits) and consistent with the weakness predicted by the model since we started tracking the first-quarter GDP growth in November 2015.
  • GDP growth prospects remain moderate for 2016:Q2, standing at 0.8%.
  • News from the past two weeks’ data releases, since the April 15 nowcast was released, had an overall negative effect on the nowcast for the second quarter.
  • Housing and manufacturing news had the largest negative impact on the nowcasts, while
    manufacturers’ inventories of durable goods provided a small but positive surprise.

Fed going to hike twice into this?
Even once?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock