The last possible chance for Ted Cruz to stop Donald Trump is the May 3 primary in Indiana.
Cruz is pulling out all the stops, but even if Cruz wins Indiana, he may still be too late.
The Wall Street Journal reports Ted Cruz Makes His Last Stand in Indiana.
Sen. Ted Cruz, in a last-ditch effort to derail Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, is trying to marshal support from governors, former rivals and other anti-Trump Republicans in advance of the make-or-break primary in Indiana Tuesday.
With polls showing him lagging behind the New York businessman in the Hoosier state, the Texas senator talked up the somewhat equivocal support he received from Indiana Gov. Mike Pence on Friday.
Mr. Pence said on an Indianapolis talk-radio show that he would vote for Mr. Cruz because he is “a principled conservative who has dedicated his career to advocating the Reagan agenda.” But then, Mr. Pence added, “I particularly want to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans.”
Earlier this week, Mr. Cruz tried to coordinate strategy with his other remaining GOP presidential rival, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and took the extraordinary step of naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate a day after he lost to Mr. Trump by a landslide in primaries in five Northeastern states on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Mr. Cruz’s onetime rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, this week repeated his call for Republicans to vote for Mr. Cruz.
To some Republicans, it was a week that amounted to a series of Hail Mary passes by a candidate running out of time. “Cruz is so desperate that he is throwing everything—including the kitchen sink and the Indiana Old Oaken Bucket—at Trump,” said Rick Hohlt, a GOP fundraiser who is moving toward supporting Mr. Trump, referring to a college football trophy.
Indiana Polls
Only the earliest poll that Has Cruz winning, and by an amazing percentage. It’s safe to discard that poll as complete nonsense.
Nate Silver did essentially that as noted by the weighting at 0.15.
The most recent poll has Trump as a 9 point favorite. Curiously, Nate Silver reduced Trump’s odds of winning following that poll.
Indiana Polls Plus
The only way that makes any sense is if Silver believes every poll is extremely heavily biased in favor of Trump and something else in is play (like a deal that fell apart the moment it was announced between Kasich and Cruz).
Indiana Polls Only
Even the Silver’s “Polls Only” results look silly, dropping Trump’s odds after the most recent, and highest rated poll.
Current Odds
- Polls Only: Trump 70%
- Polls Plus: Cruz 65%
I find that preposterous even if Cruz does manage to win Indiana.
Point May Be Moot
Trump scored so well in the Northeast, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, that he can win even if he loses Indiana.
Should Cruz win Indiana, he will need another Hail Mary pass in California.
For details, please see Does Trump Need Indiana? New York Times vs. Mish.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Expect an extra million Trump votes in protest of the California riots.
When all the crap went down in Chit-cago, a TV reporter was explaining the situation there in the streets. A Mexican walked in front of the camera and stood behind the reporter to show off his black tee-shirt with the the following printed I white lettering, “I’m the reason you can’t have nice things”.
Sorry Mish, you’ve been beaten to it, and it is documented here…
Why is the establishment so out of it? An endorsement from Jeb Bush is probably a negative. Voters want nothing to do with old guard.
I don’t think they get it yet. The best thing about trump, is that by simply providing an alternative to the old guard, everyone is ditching them in droves. Strongly hinting noone liked them in the first place, but were simply putting up with them as the “least of evils”, compared to the Dems.
I know the odds are supposed to be against it, but Trump could very well pull the same stunt vs Hillary. Noone really likes her either. Heck, in her case, not even Bill, who probably knows her better than anyone.
The best outcome is any one that makes the Republican Party hit rock bottom and start over from scratch.
Having picked the extremely unpopular Carly, known by employees at HP as Waxface the destroyer of jobs, Cruz is toast in CA….
Cruz by revealed his colors by selecting miss HP. She enjoyed her 22 Million while those from HP left behind by her layoffs looked for alternate employment.
Rubio has called for the GOP not to reject the will of the people. At first, that sounds positive.
However, Rubio was the neocons’ first choice – just as George HW Bush was the GOP establishment’s first choice in 1980. Reagan won the nomination that year but, unfortunately, let the GOP establishment pick his VP – and the rest is history. Let’s hope Trump doesn’t repeat that mistake.
It’s positive.
Rubio may instruct his delegates to vote for Trump.
That would seal this hash right now.
I wonder what Rubio would ask in return for that favor. Hmmmm.
Something tells me cruz will prevent trump getting to 1237. Despite trump winning Arizona, 2/3 of the delegates are for cruz and have said they will elect cruz on anything past the first ballot. If this happens in enough states, trump needs 1237 before the convention. He can’t rely on any of the approximately 250 unbound delegates going into the convention. Trump essentially needs routs in California, Washington and Oregon. Cruz is pretty sneaky and I wouldn’t put anything past him.
You are seriously wrong here.
Arizona is meaningless.
Trump will pick up 37-40 unbound delegates in Pennsylvania alone.
Mish
…and the distant sound of circus music draws ever nearer.
Did Provident Metals just get cyber-attacked?
50 years of stupid foreign policy. Will Trump be strong enough or even have the will to reverse decades of dumb ideas by the Washington establishment ? I was burned by Obama extending Bush policy for another two terms. I guess a Clinton will certainly continue the status quo so there may be a small chance things will change if she is out.