As amazing as it may seem, a recent polls says 75% of economists expect a rate hike in June.
Before you break out laughing, that headline is from April 7, not today.
However, that story seemed nearly as absurd then as it does now.
So commence with the laughing.
Flashback April 7, 2016: The Wall Street Journal reports WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in June.
Nearly 75% of business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal in recent days said the Fed would next raise its benchmark federal-funds rate at its June 14-15 policy meeting, down slightly from 76% in the Journal’s March survey.
Forecasters assigned minimal chances to the Fed acting at its policy meeting in less than three weeks’ time. Just one economist in the survey predicted Fed officials would lift rates at the April 26-27 meeting, compared with four in the March survey. The Journal surveyed 69 economists Friday through Tuesday, though not every respondent answered every question.
Just one economist — Bricklin Dwyer of BNP Paribas — said officials would wait until after 2017 to raise rates, while Vanderbilt University professor J. Dewey Daane said he wasn’t expecting another rate increase.
June Hike Probability
I commend Bricklin Dwyer and Vanderbilt University professor J. Dewey Daane for having ability to reason instead of parroting wishful thinking by Fed officials who have not made a correct economic forecast for something like forever.
- Stagflation-Lite Coming Up? 1st Quarter GDP 0.5% as Consumer Spending Decelerates
- Personal Spending Weak Despite Solid Wage Gains, Autos Disappoint Again, Services Shockingly Weak
- First Quarter GDP Likely Overstated (And Don’t Expect a Huge 2nd Quarter Bounce)
It is “possible” for the economy to improve enough between now and June for the Fed to hike rates.
The safer bet is to bet against what 75% of economists think will happen a few months from now.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock