Just yesterday Nate Silver projected Ted Cruz had a 65% chance of Cruz winning despite the fact that the five most recent polls all had Donald Trump winning.

Today Silver flushed his secret sauce down the toilet, where it belonged all along.

Hail Mary Pass Revisited

This is what things looked like to Silver yesterday as I commented in Indiana Hail Mary Pass Coming Up.

Indiana Polls Plus

Indiana Polls Plus

The only way that makes any sense is if Silver believes every poll is extremely heavily biased in favor of Trump and something else in is play (like a deal that fell apart the moment it was announced between Kasich and Cruz).

Current Odds

  • Polls Only: Trump 70%
  • Polls Plus: Cruz 65%

My comment yesterday was “I find that preposterous even if Cruz does manage to win Indiana.”

Today Silver changed his mind, and dramatically.

Indiana Polls Plus May 1

New Poll

Indiana polls 2016 May 1

Five polls in favor of Trump were not enough for Silver. The sixth one finally convinced him he was wrong.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock