After having been told so many times (after the Ted Cruz win in Wisconsin) that  Indiana is like Wisconsin,  tonight we learn otherwise.

No doubt some are shocked by this startling revelation, but the results are in.

Flashback April 16, 2016 Trump Will Win Indiana! This is Why.

Rigged or not, I think Trump will win Indiana, then the nomination.

Indiana Like Wisconsin?

Nate Silver changed his tune on Indiana on the belief that Indiana is more like Wisconsin than Illinois.

So here’s the question of the day: Is Indiana more like New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Wisconsin?

That is actually a trick question. I believe, as I have all along, that Indiana is more like Indiana than any of the above states.

When I look at Indiana, I see steel mills and manufacturing that have left the state.

It does not matter why. Rather, what matters is who people blame. And they blame China and Mexico.

I strongly disagree with Trump’s approach on tariffs, but my vote is outweighed by those looking for a scapegoat.

Borders

A quick check of the map shows Indiana shares borders with Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois.

Indiana does not border Wisconsin and in fact has little in common with Wisconsin.

It is likely that Kasich supporters take votes away from Cruz in areas bordering Ohio. Cruz is likely to take votes away from Kasich in the bible belt.

I expect Trump to romp and stomp in areas hard hit by manufacturing losses and come out ahead in most of the rest of the state.

Nate Silver Flashback April 30, 2016

Indiana Polls Plus

On May 1, Silver changed his mind.

This one is over already. ABC projects Trump wins Indiana.

I project Trump will beat Hillary in November.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock