Pretending Period is Over
The refugee crisis in Europe got more interesting this week.
Within hours of Brussels giving the green light on Merkel’s ill-advised deal with Turkey, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked sacked Ahmet Davutoglu, the prime minister who negotiated the deal with German chancellor Angela Merkel.
For details see EU Approves Deal With Turkey (Then All Hell Breaks Loose).
On Friday, Erdogan announced he would not fully implement the deal Davutoglu negotiated with Merkel.
The EU can no longer pretend that Erdogan has any intention of reforming Turkey.
Does the EU have a choice? The Financial Times says no. I say yes.
Erdogan Rejects EU Demands
Please consider Recep Tayyip Erdogan Rejects EU Demands to Reform Terror Law.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has rejected Brussels’ demands for an overhaul of an anti-terror law, suggesting he is prepared to abandon a deal EU leaders credit with curbing the flow of migrants.
Brussels has requested that Ankara make the change before the EU delivers visa-free travel for 80m Turks, one of the biggest concessions of the migration deal.
But Mr Erdogan insisted on Friday the legislation was necessary at a time when his country is being targeted by Islamist and Kurdish militants and said he was not prepared to change it.
Merkel Bows to Erdogan “Prince of Europe”
The anti-terror law in question gives Erdogan the ability to label anyone a terrorist for the flimsiest of reasons.
Erdogan has arrested journalists and academics, essentially anyone who publicly disagrees with him.
But Merkel does not care. She is even willing to kiss Erdogan’s feet in his newly commissioned golden throne.
The Spectator explains How Recep Erdogan Became the Most Powerful Man in Europe.
Erdogan is a patient Islamist. He used his power to tighten his grip and consolidate power behind one party — and one man. He even commissioned a new golden throne to sit on. The putative caliph set about taking Turkey in an all too predictable direction — consolidating power around himself by taking it away from the military and judiciary and stifling domestic dissent whenever he could.
The extent to which Erdogan has been able to take Turkey backwards is a modern tragedy. When corruption allegations emerged around his immediate circle just over two years ago, he swiftly banned YouTube and Twitter, stuffed the ensuing investigatory-commission with members of his own party and dismissed the investigations as a ‘coup attempt’ by people serving ‘foreign powers’.
Didn’t Erdogan worry that his authoritarianism would disqualify him outright [from EU membership]?
He gambled that the EU, for all of its pious words, could be bought off later. In a single night in January 2014, he removed and replaced some 350 police officers. His party gave itself new powers permitting domestic espionage on banks and companies on matters relating to ‘foreign intelligence’.
By the end of 2013, Erdogan said he’d take no more lectures from Brussels and that he ‘sincerely expected the EU, which sharply criticises its member countries, should criticise itself and write its own progress report’. In March he seized control of Zaman, until then Turkey’s highest–circulation newspaper. And he has taken action against thousands of citizens for the offence of insulting the president. Last month, a Turkish man was arrested for insulting Erdogan by asking police for directions to the zoo.
When a late-night comedy show in Germany pointed to the absurdity of a German law forbidding insults against foreign leaders by attacking Erdogan, Turkey demanded that Berlin acted. Erdogan was calling Angela Merkel to heel. And successfully: she approved prosecution of the offending comedian.
Turkey is home to 2.7 million Syrian refugees — a fact which Erdogan is treating like being in possession of a loaded gun.
And so the EU has accepted Turkey’s abominable treatment of Kurds. It has ignored the ongoing illegal occupation of north Cyprus. And it has ignored every single one of its own putative ‘criteria’. In trying to avoid millions more migrants, the EU has opened the doors to 75 million Turks.
In private, Erdogan must be amazed at just how much he can wrangle. The worse his behaviour, the greater his clout in Europe. He can send German police to arrest German comedians whose jokes he dislikes. He can instruct the EU to delay its ‘progress reports’ on Turkey to a time that better suits his electoral purposes. A few weeks ago, a leaked transcript of a conversation showed Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, pleading Erdogan to consider that ‘we have treated you like a prince in Brussels’.
Is There a Choice?
The Financial Times view is Europe has Limited Options Over the Turkey Visa Deal.
Two months ago, the EU agreed to pay Ankara €6bn to help meet the cost of sheltering tens of thousands of additional migrants on its soil. Now, Brussels is offering Turkey a substantial political prize in the form of visa-free travel to Europe for its 80m citizens. Given the growing authoritarianism of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this proposal, which the European Commission unveiled on Wednesday, is controversial. But Europe’s pressing need to settle the migrant crisis means it has little choice but to sign this unpalatable deal.
Europe should hold its nose and sign up to the pact it has struck with Ankara. Whatever its faults, Turkey is at least meeting its side of the bargain, managing the numbers coming across the Aegean. After committing so many mistakes in this crisis, the EU has little alternative but to press on as best it can with its difficult eastern neighbour.
Crazy Proposal
One does not grant visa access to 75-80 million Turkish citizens hoping to stop the flow of a million refugees.
The Financial Times says “the visas will be granted to Turks for three months and there is no reason to believe that large numbers will overstay their welcome.”
What? How the hell could the Financial Times possibly know?
Turn Back the Boats
The EU should thank its lucky stars that Erdogan will not uphold his end of the deal and gratefully cancel it.
Coupled with the cancellation (for which the EU can blame Erdogan), the EU should announce an Australia-type plan forcing back all boats, while arresting and prosecuting smugglers.
Call out the military to enforce the borders. That’s what Australia did.
Please consider Tony Abbott is Right about Immigration – and Turning Back Boats.
For many years, Australia has been turning away boats filled with migrants. From a remove, this looks cold–hearted — a nation built by immigrants showing no compassion for others who want a better life. But it is precisely because Australia is an immigrant nation that it understands the situation: if you let the boats land, more people come. People traffickers will be encouraged, migrants will be swindled, and their bodies will wash up on your shores. Any country serious about immigration needs a more effective and robust approach.
Sensible Approach
Turning back the boats may be harder for the EU than it is for Australia, but it can be done.
Making a deal with the devil then letting the devil renege on a critical piece of his end is not a viable option.
Accepting Erdogan’s new demands would do four things, all unsavory.
- Open up Europe to 80 million Turkish citizens, all with an axe to grind.
- Make Erdogan the prince of Europe.
- Accept Erdogan’s role as dictator of Turkey.
- Subject the EU to further demands as Turkey could unleash the refugees at any point in the future.
Please pay particular attention to point number 4.
On March 7 I noted Devil Demands and Receives More Concessions from Merkel: In Bed with a Dictator.
Here we are again. The devil wants still more concessions. This time, the devil demands the EU accept Erdogan as the price of Europe and dictator of Turkey.
This is a deal the EU would be crazy to accept.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Europe is facing a crossroads. Either cancel the deal with Erdogan and activate the military to turn back the refugees or stop existing as we know it. Seems like a no brainer to me.
Yes, but the EU (pronounced “Eeeee-ewwwwwwwwwww” – rhymes with peee-euwwww) heads are bought and paid for by Middle East dictatorships’ oil money.
Hey they’re just trying to get a head – like ISIS!
Europe doesn’t have a recognizable military. You might try the “blue hats” of the UN.
Could not find this in English yet. France is to push for a consolidated Europe after the UK referendum, including military… so a new influx of refugees might suit.
http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2016/05/06/actualidad/1462558534_914525.html
With France in the lead position, no doubt. Good luck with that theorem, Europe.
The EU is pushing for more authority and less transparency then ever. Mish, this is a must see video. (Short, not an add) showing how the EU tyranny plans to get far more extreme.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/05/04/esm-new-eu-treaty-in-the-works-will-bankrupt-nations/
Mish, If you had a tips page I would place it there. Please let me know if you have seen this.
Granting visa free access to 80 million citizens of a terrorist sponsoring country that is fast turning into an islamist state at Europe door’s and which has a 20% youth unemployment rate… What could go wrong?
It is clear Turkey is not getting more like Europe, it is Europe that is getting more like Turkey. But then again since Europe is the new USSR maybe it is exactly what the unelected Brussels nannycrats really want… Along with a golden throne… 🙂
Brexit looks tastier by the day.
Yup. Just what I was going to point out. Nigel Farage and UKIP couldn’t have better advertising for why britons should vote for Brexit. Hell, one would think that the EU would want to at least put on a show of taking a hard line with little Tayyip until after the Brexit vote.
The British are not much liked by EU and are superfluous to its intent.
Forget about all the civility and politeness shown, when it comes down to it the UK and its true allies in EU are a shrinking minority. The bureaucrats of EU are merciless and are programmed to technically destroy opposition. They achieve this often by stalling the direction of others. That is why EU looks wieldy, and it balances that weight against individual countries in the name of its own slow progress, that it not be stalled. It is that bad.
They will want UK out or under heel. This is not the UK way and it should exit, without any doubt whatsoever.
While Erdogan has received the red carpet, Poland has had a mass protest in ‘support of EU’. This is one of the first open pro-EU anti national demonstrations I know of, a Ukraine lite version if you will. Since when has national politics been challenged by ‘EU’, which is NOT a recognised state entity ( and hence holds no responsibility whatsoever due to its own legal immunity) ? This is hard to believe…
http://www.ibtimes.com/massive-anti-government-protests-sweep-across-warsaw-show-polish-support-eu-2365748
While in Italy anarchist protest Austria closing its border to migrants… why should any Italian protest Austrian legislation that is enacted solely within its own borders?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-3578605/Anarchists-clash-police-near-Austrian-border.html
That is just a glimpse of a fraction of one day’s related news.
The British share their socialist slave mentality with the EU. The British lack the initiative for independent self reliant work ethic. They don’t fit as the 51st US state so they should comfortably remain slaves of the EU.
The British don’t fit properly with US initiative, though it is both strange and familiar to them at the same time. Half of the UK is pliant towards EU mentality, but you won’t find a tougher and more entrenched opposition than from the rest.
Much like Ataturk was the chosen one of God and brought that country nearly a millennia into the present, this guy is like the antichrist and is sending them back to the dark ages. And if they let him, he’s taking Europe with him.
I still don’t understand you problem with the people of Turkey Mish. You criticized the financial times, saying they could not possibly know that most Turks would not overstay their visas, but you had absolutely no problem claiming that all 80m Turks have an axe to grind with Europe, something you obviously couldn’t possibly know.
When did I claim 80 million have an axe to grind with the EU?
Rather they have an axe to grind with Erdogan and events in Turkey.
If a mere 1.5% of them leave because they are able that’s over a million more refugees.
I never said they would all leave. But even a small percentage of 80 million is a big number.
And as I stated, the EU would be foolish to trust Erdogan. He can at any time demand more money and more concessions from the EU or he will unleash the refugees.
Idiotic bargain with a dictator who cannot be trusted.
Mish
Turn Back the Boats…
Easier said than done. The problem is that the refugees are instructed by the smugglers to sink their boats as soon as a coastal guard boat approaches. There is no boat left to be turned back, only people in the water. So, the coastal guard rescues them and takes them to Greece.
Do not take them to Greece, Put them on a bigger boat. Many transports come cheep now. Take them back. Very quickly they will stop coming. Spend some time reading Jihad watch and looking at future demographics You will realize that is the only sane answer.
Their are many other solutions to help the real refugees. Populations of young healthy men leaving their families behind are not refugees.
The ‘problem’ is EU legislation which guarantees the right of any migrant, once within territory or waters, to make claim for asylum status. This necessarily means returning the migrant to a holding area and processing his application. Unless you are willing to fence off the ocean there is no possibility of stopping the flow of migrants that way, instead reliance would have to be placed on Turkish authorities patrolling and stopping migrants before they reach the maritime boundary. EU is not likely to change that asylum law.
That is the whole Turkish blackmail David. They will not take them back. Those transport ships would not be able to dock in any Turkish port. The whole deal with Turkey was not only to control the flow but start taking people back.
And of course, the problems with EU legislation are real as well.
I think EU acts soft. Now that the Turkish side proved that they can indeed control the flow, there is no excuse. If Turkey starts its usual games, use sanctions. You are cut off from EU market Mr Erdogan till you comply. We use economic weapons for far less vital problems, why not for this one?
There is no such thing as a clear law. Put legal counsel on the boat, process them right there. Use will power.
Mr. Shedlock, I think you have a rather uninformed view about Europe. You seem to miss the fact that Turkey is one of the main training ground and entry points for ISIS members. In fact, when ISIS members are injured in combat, they are treated in Turkish hospitals. How is the EU going to implement an Australian style policy when 1. The frontline countries are either broke (i.e. Greece and Italy) so don’t have the resources to stop any migrants from arriving, or 2. have land connections with Turkey (i.e. Bulgaria and Greece)? It’s just nonsensical.
In fact, the situation in Greece is so bad that as you well might be aware, the chances of Greece defaulting on loans from the troika because of Germany pushing them to sign up to a deal (helped by a spineless PM in Tsipras who neglected to plan for a way of leaving the EU and left himself exposed) that they never were going to be able to honor. In fact, the IMF has told Germany to negotiate a write down on loans that cannot be written down since those ECB bonds, which state that they cannot be written down, are being used by entities such as Deutsche Bank as Tier 1 assets to meet Basle 2 requirements. If they are written down, the ECB has a hole well north of €100 billion that it needs to fill along with Deutsche Bank needing to fill a €35 billion hole in it’s balance sheet.
This is a mess made in the US and enabled by kleptocratic sycophant “leaders” in Europe who do whatever the US tells them irrespective of the consequences to their country. Following the Americans in the plan laid out in the 90s for regime change in the middle east in countries it deemed unfriendly (see Wesley Clark’s speech on this) is what led to this migrant crisis. The only real way for it to be solved is for the EU to stop following the US over the cliff and focus on helping to stabilize the situation in the migrant’s home countries. That’s the way you solve the crisis. It definitely will not happen when it’s in Turkey’s perceived interests to enable terrorists coming into Europe (as they were doing anyway before the deal was struck) in order to foment chaos and crisis in western europe.
Well aware Turkey is a sponsor an protector of ISIS.
That’s another reason Merkel’s deal with Turkey is idiotic.
Mish
It is telling that the O said Erdogan was a leader he admires the most.
It is true that the O and his SOSs policy helped the Islamists and helped create the refugees. However the EU has considerable responsibility as well, Beyond that, as history bears out, the Islamic political tenants of the entire ME are untenable to anything but perpetual war and violence.
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Martin Armstrong: “There are those in the Middle East who are deliberately looking at the “refugee” issue as the means to conquer Europe. They are preaching this very policy of assimilation to takeover Europe. Even Muslims I know within Europe are disturbed by all of the refugees entering for they are of a different mindset generally and lack skills to be economically beneficial to Europe moving forward. What is disturbing to me is that this may indeed be part of the catalyst which transforms Europe into a third-world country as the financial capital of the world moves to Asia.”
Lets look a little deeper here Martin. There is indeed a Middle East country that is playing the Muslim Middle East and so-called Christian West off one another.
It’s called the parent of both religions. This tribe of psychopaths created both religions for the very purpose that they are being used at this time.
This tribe is using it’s Muslim shock troops against the West which, when the West wakes from it’s slumber, with reduce both to ashes, they hope, with the tribe as top dogs, as they move their operations to East Asia. However, East Asia, the Chinese in particular, have memories just who was behind the British forcing opium down their throats. This plan for world hegemony is at least 3,000 years old and is coming to a head. Some believe it’s a continuing battle between the pure Homo sapiens who descended from Cro-Magnon and Homo sapiens in which Neanderthal DNA rushes through their veins that spread out from the Caucus Mountains thousands of years ago.
Turkey is an Islamist puppet state ruled by a cagey dictator. Not only should the EU deal be cancelled, but Turkey should be removed from NATO immediately.