In a poll of a mere 1000 registered voters, an NBC/WSJ poll was able to ascertain an amazing amount of information, supposedly within a +- 3.1 percent accuracy range.
Fox news reported the results, but the pollsters are NBC and the WSJ.
This kind of reporting nonsense is typical. I am not just picking on the pollsters mentioned.
If anyone thinks all those lines are within +-3.1 percent, I suggest they are crazy.
I cannot even tell who is ahead looking at those stats, but I suspect Trump.
The point is moot. National polls are meaningless, even if by some miracle the results are correct at the moment.
The election will be decided at the state level, not by national polls. Trump could easily win with a minority vote although Hillary cannot.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock.
The last Fox poll I saw had Gov. Johnson with double digits. I retesting that other pollsters are ignoring that vote.
It’s likely worse than it looks. While the 3% error rate is probably correct if looking at the entire sample, the error rate for the cross tabs is probably much larger as those samples are much smaller.
Whoop! There it is!
“BOOM – Trump Leads Clinton In ABC/Washington Post Poll, Even With D+8 Poll Sample…”
“There’s a whole lot of good news and ‘splodey head angst in the latest ABC/Washington Post national poll (full pdf below). The poll sample size of 1005 includes a mix of 33% Democrat, 27% Republican and 35% Independent. Democrats over sampled by eight points, (D+8).
However, even with the sample skew (D+8) Donald Trump still beats Hillary Clinton 46% to 44%, and Trump is crushing Clinton with Independent voters 48% to 35%.
In addition to the overwhelming 13 point polling lead among independent voters, the same poll shows that 20% of Bernie Sanders supporters will vote for Donald Trump.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/05/22/boom-trump-leads-clinton-in-abc-washington-post-poll-even-with-d8-poll-sample/
https://realitybloger.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/new-election-same-old-blood/
http://nypost.com/2016/05/22/how-corporate-america-bought-hillary-clinton-for-21m/
http://s33.postimg.org/la3cei5lb/the_beast_ridden_by.png
Interesting that our capitalist leaders are all pulling for Hillary.
About another 80 good reasons to vote for Trump.
http://conservativetribune.com/obama-job-white-house/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=ConservativeBrief&utm_campaign=DailyBest&utm_content=2016-05-24
Except that polling data is used to determine who gets into the presidential debates in the fall. Only way a 3rd party candidate can get on stage is if he/she has more than 15% in polls. Kind of vague what polls they use, and of course, ignoring that during a recent poll I was asked if I was “definitely or maybe” going to vote for Trump or “definitely or maybe” going to vote for Clinton. No 3rd party or “other” choice.
That’s why Mittens Romney won’t run as a 3rd party candidate. He knows it’s a rigged system.
THE BILDERBERGERS AND THE GLOBAL ELITE CABAL OF THE NEW WORLD ORDER DECIDE OUR ELECTIONS FOR US. THIS ELECTIONS HAS ALREADY BEEN FIXED, AND ALL WHO ARE RUNNING ARE NOTHING MORE THAN ACTORS AND ACTRESSES. THEY DO TRY THEIR BEST TO PUT ON A GOOD SHOW FOR US, AND MAKE US THINK THIS IS AN ELECTION.
Nazis control using genetics (breeding, culling). Commies control by upbringing (re-education, propaganda). A poll (like a census) keyed to race does both.
The better way for those in Christ (in the Kingdom of Heaven), is that “there is neither greek nor jew, male nor female, etc.” and certainly not hyphenated-americans (euro-americans, latin-americans…)
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/05/22/obama-signs-bill-banning-negro-oriental/
The formula to win has two variables. One, turn out your party members. Two, win independents. Trump will turn out his base having won the primary season by a record margin with record turn out. Clinton is hated by about half her party members. And Trump leads in polls of Independents by as big a margin as Obama enjoyed in 2008. A simple outcome matrix demonstrates that Trump is the heavy favorite.
“Dewey defeats Truman”
The numbers change from week to week. It is a long distance to November.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/07/obama-cousins-senate-family-tree
These sample sizes are laughable!
Election polls that are published should be illegal. It’s a public manipulation device. Serious polls would not use a pool of 1000 people. Like Economic data it’s there to tell us who to vote for.
1st Amendment.
With no skin in the game, those polled will say most anything that reflects their bias. That’s why the bookmakers numbers are usually closest to the final result. They even factor in the “rigging” element.
Push polling to fool the majority clueless.
Ant the winner in Austria is,,,,,Diebold!
The best possible result for this election is total gridlock in Washington. My support will change from time to time in order to help that occur. Two candidates who stand for no principles other than getting themselves elected. Any point of view they present is only to say what they think you want to hear.
Every time Trump says something about anything important he then quickly reverses. And Clinton always has the problem with the truth and track record of failure. I think neither will be able change things. Folks being polled probably feel similar and find themselves switching day to day.
THE ROTHCHILDS WERE RAISING MONEY FOR HER AS WELL, TRY A $100,000.00 PLATE MEALS.
WALL STREET, JP MORGAN CHASE, AND GOLDMAN SACHS AS WELL.
The aim was to show that a vote for the anti establishment(donaldo) in fact is a vote for the establishment( whites and seniors). Of course this is all bullshit but the psychology is purposeful in its intent. The status quo has been relentless in going after him, and I am enjoying the smug confident charlatan politicians squirm as he floats to the top of their cesspool.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?406228-4/washington-journal-joseph-digenova-hillary-clintons-emails Makes the case for convicting HRC on FOIA violations, gross negligence re doing natl security work on personal servers, hiding & destroying public records re campaign finance, etc.
Shillery carries more baggage than an Airbus A380. And she hasn’t even been taken on a test flight. Sanders isn’t a real candidate who entered the race to win. He’s a bit actor playing a part. His followers are just too young and naive to understand how American politics work.
Polls don’t matter and shouldn’t be trusted. No surprise to me the latest ones show Trump and Shillery neck and neck. If they showed one or the other far in the lead you’d lose interest and spend your time more productively.
Trump will end up in the White House.
What does Nate say?
I’ll go opposite.
PERSONALLY I DO NOT FOLLOW POLLS, ELECTIONS, ETC…; I LOOK AT THE NEWS IN LIGHT OF BIBLE PROPHECY. I AM ONE WHO DOES NOT BELONG TO ANY POLITICAL PARTY AND I DO NOT WANT ONE, I AM A MESSIANIC CHRISTIAN, WHO IS ALSO A CONSPIRACY REALIST. YES, I AM A CONSPIRACY PERSON. WHERE THERE ARE NEGOTIATIONS, THERE ARE CONSPIRACIES, AND NONE IN THE INTEREST OF MANKIND OR PRESERVATION THEREOF. BIBLE PROPHECY CAN NOT BE STOPPED AND IT IS MORE THAN ACCURATE IN PERFECTION. YOU DO NOT HEAR ANY OF THESE SONS OF A BITCHES AND BITCHES TALK ABOUT THE NEW WORLD ORDER, ET ALIENS THAT THEY ARE IN CONSPIRACY WITH, THE DOLLAR THAT IS BEING DUMPED ALL OVER THE WORLD. FURTHER MORE, WE HAVE A BUNCH OF HYBRIDS AS WORLD LEADERS. THE HOLY BIBLE EVEN TELLS US THAT FALLEN ANGELS HAVE MATED WITH DAUGHTERS OF MEN, AND YES MANY OF THESE LEADERS AND PEOPLE IN OUR OWN GOVERNMENT ARE SHAPE SHIFTERS. THE ALSO DO NOT TELL YOU OF THIS, NOR DO THEY PUBLICLY SPEAK OF IT, OR EVEN THOUGHTS TO ELIMINATE IT, UNTIL IT CREEPS UP ON YOU:
https://bythebloodofthelamb.wordpress.com/2016/05/21/rfid-chip-put-into-action-is-it-the-mark-of-the-beast/
What people don’t generally realise is the +- confidence level applies purely to whether the sample represents the demographics of the population at large. It has little significance in whether that sample actually represents the views of the population at large.