On the back of a greater than expected increase in Durable Goods Orders this morning, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model rose from 2.5% to 2.9%.
Latest GDPNow Forecast: 2.9 Percent — May 26, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on May 26, up from 2.5 percent on May 17. The forecast for second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -0.3 percent to 0.4 percent following this morning’s durable manufacturing release from the U.S. Census Bureau. After yesterday’s advance report on international trade in goods from the Census Bureau, the forecast for the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.04 percentage points to 0.16 percentage points.
2nd Quarter GDP Estimates
- Atlanta Fed: 2.9% – Updated May 26
- New York Fed: 1.7% – Updated May 20
- Markit: 0.7% – Updated May 25
Markit bases its forecast on a weakening service sector. For details, please see Service Sector Growth Weakest Since 2009; Markit Economist Estimates 0.7% GDP.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Still trying to figure out all these “strong” government reports when the transportation sector is way down. How did stuff move?
That’s a very good question Tim. I assume this wonderful looking GDP number will be revised much lower in the coming months? Global shipping has collapsed as well (BDI), so it appears we can safely conclude this number is false and just more gov’t propaganda.
Don’t over-analyze it.
That’s all faked.
That’s my opinion and I’m not changing it!
The Federal Reserve is not a credible source.
So the bulk of this was Boeing’s. Not a stable number and once you subtract out that very volatile single item (Boeings) in fact durable goods orders were down.
Tax receipts have completely plunged as well.
Anyone long financials in the USA right now is a nut job….talking their book at best, probably worse tho.
What tax receipts have completely plunged? Federal receipts are up 3.9% in the first 6 months of the fiscal year over last year.
State tax receipts have dropped y/y. Most Fed receipts are probably up due to strong market and capital gains taxes, although TBH that last is just a guess. Check on Trim Tabs, he tracks monthly payroll receipts.
By Karen Pierog
May 25, 2016
CHICAGO (Reuters) – U.S. state personal income
taxes tumbled in the key revenue month
of April due to lower investment returns from
weaker equities and energy prices in 2015, a
Reuters analysis of state data found.
This April, personal income tax (PIT) revenue
fell by an average of 9.88 percent compared
to the same month last year in the 32 U.S. states
and Puerto Rico for which Reuters has data.
http://www.rockinst.org/newsroom/news_stories/2016/2016-05-25-Reuters.pdf
Would like to see a longer period of time than 1 month, who knows what factors are involved. For example in Iowa, April receipts were down 18.9% but Fiscal YTD is up 5.5%. Probably the same story nationwide.
http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/state-tax-receipts-take-double-digit-plunge-in-april/article_dd9f6fab-91e8-5db1-9b9b-24df4ff17ac3.html
Obama is the bomb. He has really turned this economy around. That’s what the government says so it must be true.
Volatility in markets is not a good sign for anyone but the habitual gambler and those driving the market gyrations. It like we are passing around a glass of milk well past its “best by” date, each taking a sip as it continues to curdle while commenting on how its really not that bad, yet no one really wants to take a big gulp. There is still hope that it can churned into butter or maybe buttermilk, but no one really believes that. Keep hope alive.