Despite glowing mainstream media reports on personal consumption expenditures and income, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast for second quarter GDP did not budge.

Rate hike odds for June shrank substantially.

Latest forecast: 2.9 percent — May 31, 2016

GdpNow 2015-05-31

“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on May 31, unchanged from May 26. The second-quarter forecast for real consumer spending growth remained at 3.6 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.”

Rate Hike Odds Sink

Fedwatch 2016-05-31

Despite glowing reports regarding consumer spending rising the most in seven years, not only was the GDPNowcast flat, but the CME Fedwatch rate hike odds fell 9.4 percentage points to 22.5 percent.

As noted in Consumers Come to Life in April; Bounce Less Than Meets the Eye, the widely-touted “biggest jump in consumer spending in nearly seven years” was far from what it seems.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock