New online and telephone polls by the Guardian show Brexit is in the lead for the first time ever.
Are those polls flawed or did Prime Minister David Cameron’s over-the-top fearmongering have the opposite effect as intended?
UK Voters Lean Towards Brexit
Please consider UK Voters Leaning Towards Brexit, Guardian Poll Reveals.
Public opinion has shifted towards the UK leaving the EU, two Guardian/ICM polls suggest as the referendum campaign picks up pace – with voters split 52% -48% in favour of Brexit, whether surveyed online or by phone.
Previous polls have tended to show voters surveyed online to be more in favour of Britain leaving the EU. But in the latest ICM research, carried out for the Guardian, both methodologies yielded the same result – a majority in favour of leaving.
In the phone poll of more than 1,000 adults, 45% said they favoured leaving the EU, and 42% remaining, with 13% saying they did not know. Once the “don’t knows” were excluded, that left 52% in favour of Brexit, against 48% for remain.
Using online polling, 47% said they would like to leave, and 44% remain, with 9% saying they were undecided. Excluding the latter, the result was the same as the phone method – 52-48 in favour of leaving.
Last time ICM carried out a poll for the Guardian, in mid-May, remain had a 10 percentage point lead among those polled by phone, on 55% to 45%. The online method produced the same result as the latest one: 52% for leave compared to 48% for remain.
Leave in Lead
Possible Outlier
It’s possible the poll is an outlier. If so, other polls sure to come will swing the other way. As of yesterday Number Cruncher Politics reported things this way.
Bloomberg’s Brexit Watch reported the same numbers for today, with far less detail about the prediction.
Bloomberg says “last updated May 31”.
Bloomberg’s comments were updated today but the above graphics do not reflect the latest polls.
Fearmongering Backfired?
The stench of fearmongering by the “remain” camp is strong we can smell it across the Atlantic, here in the US.
- On May 24, Cameron made the claim Britain Faces a ‘Recession of its Own Making’ if We Vote for Brexit.
- On May 22, The UK National Health Service CEO made the unbelievable claim Brexit Would be ‘Very Dangerous’ for the NHS.
- On May 24, David Cameron made the preposterous claim Vote to Leave EU is ‘Immoral’.
- On May 27, David Cameron stated EU Immigration Price Worth Paying for Gains of Single Market.
Economists Unanimous
I am pleased to report that in the FT’s Annual Poll of Economists of more than 100 leading thinkers, not one thought a vote for Brexit would enhance UK growth in 2016.
100% of economists have never correctly agreed on anything of substance. Occasionally they agree the sun will rise tomorrow, but that’s about it.
The last time we saw this much agreement was in 2009 and the consensus was the US dollar needed to sink more.
Reflections on Cost
On May 9, David Cameron gave a Speech on Brexit in which he made the ridiculous claim “If we leave, the only certainty we will have is uncertainty. The Treasury has calculated that the cost to every household in Britain would be as high as £4,300 by 2030 if we leave. £4,300.”
Now that’s a hoot. The treasury cannot calculate GDP, recessions, or deficits, but it is certain of the cost of Brexit to every household through 2030.
Uncertainty Nonsense
If the “remain” forces win, the UK faces the guaranteed certainty of more rules, more regulations, imposed financial transaction taxes, higher tariffs, and more forced more immigration, on top of unforeseen idiocy.
The common sense vote is to keep the uncertainty of trade negotiations instead of the guaranteed certainty of known EU stupidity, plus the guaranteed certainty of unpredictable EU stupidity.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The news is posting terror warnings again, which will skew the pols farther toward Brexit. The last time there was an attack, the Brexit pols surged way higher. Hopefu)ly. The upward surge will out perform the cheating, they will leave. and we can celebrate their new found freedom..
“Now that’s a hoot. The treasury cannot calculate GDP, recessions, or deficits, but it is certain of the cost of Brexit to every household through 2030.”
Shades of the household cost savings that Obama assured the people re ACA.
More important … who will be counting the vote??
Leave voters are more motivated to vote, Remain needs to be leading by a few points. Optimistic we will win.
After London elected a Muslim mayor, it’s hard to apply much reason to this vote. Something is terribly broken.
It will mean MORE regulations. British regulations and EU regulations. That is the complaint of countries like Switzerland: export demands shadowing European regulations.
Maybe , but the UK is lauded within EU by businesses for its efficiency and comparative lack of bureaucracy . I don’t think it would be any more difficult after leaving EU … if there is complaint it should be of the EU bureaucracy.
The British are born subjects. Americans got tired of taxation without representation back in 1776.
All that it seems is required is to pledge your allegiance once and your offspring will forever more be “subjugated”. We all vote for whom we prefer as our master, NOT if we want a master at all. None of us are allowed a recourse to law, regardless of how arbitrary it is in conception or enforcement. We obey…or pay.
The UK Guardian did an earlier analysis of the polls, and noted that some polls are based on a sampling of the population, while other polls sample likely voters. Those polls sampling likely voters give higher results for Brexit.
Freedom (to control your own destiny) versus Slavery/Submission (to the Brussels-Berlin nannycrat-ruling axis) is the only choice here. Economics will always entail uncertainty. If a nation like the UK that survived German V-2 rockets in World War II can no longer survive on its own without the firm guidance and control of the Brussels nannycrats and Berlin, then it indeed has become a pathetic nation-state and Elizabeth needs to abdicate and turn the throne over to her new true heir, Angela Merkel.
“Economics will always entail uncertainty.”
So we should just ignore it then? Every legitimate economic forecast, model and organisation says it would be bad economically, but this isn’t on the ballot paper because they have a slightly uncertainty?
And then you go off on a moral argument based on nothing of substance, funny how Brexiters do that so much isn’t it?
Pray tell
1. What constitutes a “legitimate economic forecast”?
2. Since when have economists been right when they universally agreed?
They never let any other negative projection slow their agenda, as a few eggs must always be broken to make the omelette. If anyone were paying the slightest attention, they would note that ALL of the current mess we find ourselves in is the direct result of their other economic machinations. Are they lying or simply stupid…or does it matter?
The Economic Forecasts are Pure Propaganda all lined up in the same direction for a specific purpose. Given how all the QE, ZIRP, NIRP and other theories have fared, skepticism of the economic models and forecasts is warranted. Skepticism of any economic consensus should indeed be mandatory as a condition for voting. The Brits have been through this economic forecast/prediction business before, in recent years from the IMF. The Brits defied the IMF gloom and doom forecasts, and produced one of the better EU economic recoveries; certainly much better than the rest of the EU following the IMF doom-and-gloom consensus.
Malaysia is another example from recent decades, defying the IMF and consensus forecasts and producing superior economic results. If the Brits feel they have become so feeble as a people that they cannot work their way out of a little economic adversity, then it probably makes little difference whether Brussels or Berlin is in control of their lives. Freedom sometimes comes with a price. It is just a philosophical position, but personally I would rather screw up things myself than have someone else do it for me. People all the time tradeoff some income for freedom (e.g. working fewer hours for more family time or to pursue a side business).
Call it moral, or a value judgment, but economics is not the only factor to consider. Certainly, if you like to travel within the EU, say to shop in Paris or Poland, or do your banking or vacationing in Latvia or Cyprus, ease of travel would be a consideration. I know after 9-11 I quit traveling from the USA to Canada when instead of a driver’s license I needed a passport and visa to enter Canada. Of course, being a Brit you could travel to Canada, South Africa, Hong Kong, India and the rest of the Commonwealth instead of EU countries. A Brexit transition should be much easier than the transition Russia made when leaving the Soviet Union behind. No doubt USA.gov will want to crash the British currency in retaliation, if indeed the UK Telegraph is right about the EU being a CIA creation. So, I think there will be economic consequences, albeit very transitory and ephemeral.
Brexit really should not be such a big deal. Brexit just means cutting free from the yoke of Brussels and Berlin and going back to full self-rule. It hardly seems an impossible task. It’s not like you’re sending a man to the moon or trying to establish democracy in Iraq (another consensus forecast gone wrong).
Travel to EU will be no more difficult. Residency matters will change, hence either or, not just part of a wider protocol ( not a bad thing, I know many international people getting unreasonably double taxed).
When you go to EU as a non-member you are an outsider. There are many benefits to this. You are not part of any agenda, you are given individual status and respect, your home country is obliged to look out for you instead of fobbing you off onto EU or local authority.
As far as integration and equal access to local benefits are concerned, seriously, why bother. The most basic services are available to all, even stateless beings turning up at the shore, just as the UK offers them. If you want to integrate then the choice will be more decisive at the start, if that, demanding certain commitment instead of a vague prepared welcome ( which is actually closer to being invited to perch yourself in a chair over a shark tank while trusting local craftsmanship ) .
Phone polls have Remain ahead, online Leave leads. The difference is with the over 65s, online they strongly support leave, phone polls it is even. The online polls are correct, the older you are the more likely you are to support leave.
If it is anywhere near a close vote, do you think they will not lie about it? There is no group more at risk than the government officials pushing the EU….and I imagine THEY are tabulating the results.
WordPress blocking a link, single type pad test, www. :
english constitution group. org/damning-letter- from-lord-kilmuir-the-lord-chancellor-to-(not type this) edward-heath-2/
WordPress is filtering links.
But http://m.bbc.com/news/world no problem?
Of course not!
Tried placing that link a day ago on another post here, did not show, the comment never appeared. Tried it quarter of an hour ago as a simple link on this post … has not appeared.
Britain needs to leave the EU but don’t expect a fair election when it comes to the EU vote. The vote will be close with Brexit being defeated. We will never know the actual vote.
I haven’t commented before Mish but I read your posts regularly. When our Treasury makes a forecast out to 2030 it means just until half past eight that evening! Well at least I assume it must as it can’t even work out what tomorrow’s weather will be. Don’t know what the result will be, but several of us have been canvassing for a couple of weeks now and (at least in our area of the south-east) Leave is a long way in front. Unfortunately I can’t claim that as an opinion poll though!
What differences does it make whether the UK stays in the EU or exits?
In reality, ‘nothing’. But the statist-induced, resulting chaos sure wood be fun to watch.
I will make two predictions- first the vote will be to remain in the EU- the second, even if Brexit wins, the UK won’t leave, the vote will be ignored.
This is the modern way for government- Heads I win, Tails you lose.
Faked or simply ignored. Its like when my wife asks for my opinion….it is only feigned consideration and the opportunity for me to prove my intelligence or stupidity depending on if I happen to agree with her position.
The Brits are bollocked. People in power will not relinquish it voluntarily, especially if their power allows them to easily subvert the people’s will.
Exactly, Yancey. This thing is already decided and the voters need not be consulted
Dare I ask? What does his incandescence, Nate Silver, predict?
Good Question
I don’t think he covers that but I am wondering if Singh fell into the “Silver Trap”
The moment of Truth – Pat Condell
Just a wild guess but I suspect that those who lead productive lives, are self-sufficient and don’t live off the dole support Brexit. The leeches and indigent immigrants favor the status quo.
I’ll predict the same as I did for the Austrian elections. Brexit will lead in the polls (ie. Hofer) but lose by a nose in a photo finish on election day and the “remains” will take home the trophy (ie. Van der Bellen).
In the end power settles everything. 😉
On May 9, David Cameron gave a Speech on Brexit in which he made the ridiculous claim “If we leave, the only certainty we will have is uncertainty. The Treasury has calculated that the cost to every household in Britain would be as high as £4,300 by 2030 if we leave. £4,300.”
Cameron is peddling fiction. What do taxes cost every household in Britain? What is an EU tax number going to result in costing every British household, if Britain remains in the EU?
That a PM threatens his own people into further giving up sovereignty to foreign powers is just too low.
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.”
― Marcus Tullius Cicero
“On May 9, David Cameron gave a Speech on Brexit in which he made the ridiculous claim “If we leave, the only certainty we will have is uncertainty.”
Martin Armstrong: “Brussels will destroy London. That is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY.” Emphasis, Armstrong’s.
“I am pleased to report that in the FT’s Annual Poll of Economists of more than 100 leading thinkers, not one thought a vote for Brexit would enhance UK growth in 2016.”
Larry Summers admitted that “no post war recession has been predicted”.
Martin Armstrong: ”
“The propaganda implies that economic growth in Britain has benefited from the EU single market since it joined in 1973. Let us expose the lies and corruption propagated by this pool of economists. Using the government’s own statistics from the Office for National Statistics, annual economic growth for Britain peaked BEFORE it joined the EU and has been declining ever since.”
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Mish