Here’s an amusing Tweet courtesy of Chicago Fed president Charles Evans.
With that enlightenment out of the way, let’s take a look at the CME Fedwatch odds.
June Rate Hike Odds 3.7%
July Rate Hike Odds 33.6%
November Rate Hike Odds 48.9%
One has to go all the way to December, once again, before the odds climb above 50%. In December the odds sit at 66.0%.
Evans Discusses Hike Delays for Years
Please consider Fed’s Evans Sees Case for Deferring U.S. Rate Hikes for Years.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans called into question the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike this summer, saying he saw a “reasonable case” for delaying higher borrowing costs until core inflation reaches the Fed’s goal of 2 percent.
Based on current Fed forecasts, such an approach would keep U.S. monetary policy on hold until 2018.
Speaking in London, Evans said he was not sold on holding off on rate hikes for so long and his base case for appropriate policy remained to raise rates twice by the end of 2016 although the precise timing of the hikes was not so important.
Evans is not sold on anything between two hikes this year and no hikes until 2018. It’s a good thing “precise timing of the hikes is not so important.”
Mike “Mish” Shedlock