I decided to check on Nate Silver’s California Primary Predictions, this time on the Democratic side.
Once again I find his analysis, and even his math absurd.
Polls-Plus Primary Odds
California Polls
Somehow Silver magically assign 92% odds of Clinton winning even though recent trends are swinging heavily towards Bernie Sanders. Clinton is still in the lead, but she holds a mere 1 percentage point advantage in the most recent poll.
It’s also ludicrous for Silver to post Sanders’ polling average at 42.9%.
Silver states “Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages. The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.”
I cannot come close to deriving 42.9% except by giving equal weight to polls that Silver rates as being nearly worthless.
Alternatively, and as with Donald Trump in Indiana, Silver simply does not believe the three most recent polls.
Indiana Flashback May 1
On April 24, I commented Another Indiana Poll Goes Trump’s Way But Silver’s Secret Sauce Projects Cruz Will Win.
My comment at the time …
Three successive polls going Trump’s favor should have increased Silver’s confidence Trump would win. After all, repeated polls in national elections all showing Obama with small leads is precisely what led to Silver to call the states correctly.
In this case, Silver clearly believes polls by Fox News, You-Gov, and Public Opinion Strategies are not only biased in favor of Trump, but hugely so.
I don’t buy it, but we don’t know what is precisely in Silver’s secret sauce.
Five Polls Not Enough For Silver
It took six consecutive polls favoring Trump for Silver to change his mind!
This is what the polls looked like on May 1
Despite those polls, Silver projected Cruz had a 65% chance of winning. On May 2 a 6th poll went Trump’s way, and this is what happened: Silver Flushes Secret Sauce Down Toilet, Now Projects Trump has 69% Chance
Silver did not believe five polls in front of his nose! He now apparently does not believe the latest three polls in California.
On April 16, I went out on a limb: Trump Will Win Indiana! This is Why.
I am not going out on a limb like I did in Indiana. But 92% confidence on Clinton is absurd when sentiment and trends shifted towards Sanders. If the next poll or two breaks for Sanders, I do suspect Sanders will win.
Will we see another massive “Silver-swing” in a couple days? I don’t know, but I sure will not be surprised if it happens.
I won’t even be surprises by a Sanders win if the polls stay exactly where they are now. Clearly, Silver would be.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Realclearpolitics.com covers the leading polls. Silver is never covered.
That’s because Silver isn’t real clear. And he doesn’t poll.
But he’s the best Hillary can buy?
Snark!
For a more accurate reading, poll the vote counters, not the voters 😉
With one candidate being both annointed and connected, we know who will win the D nomination.
When this kind of power is at stake, the ends justify most any means. The question is, can the “fix” remain in place for the general election.
“Presidents are selected, not elected.” FDR
“The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election. The people who count the votes do.” Joe Stalin
And to think,,,,no hanging chad with electronic ballots.
Biden/Sanders 2016!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How much does Hillary Clinton want to win California? She and Bill have over 30 events in 5 days
Faced with the prospect of what would be a demoralizing loss in California that would end the Democratic primary season on a low note for her, Hillary Clinton is launching a barnstorming tour of the state in an effort to stop her rival’s momentum.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-hillary-clinton-california-20160602-snap-story.html
Sanders: ‘The Democratic National Convention will be a contested convention’
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on Saturday vowed to continue his fight for the Democratic nomination beyond the primary season, telling reporters at a news conference in Los Angeles that he plans to go after Hillary Clinton…
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/04/politics/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-convention/
Clinton IT aide Pagliano order to produce DOJ immunity agreement
A federal judge ordered the man who set up Hillary Clinton’s private email server Friday to produce the immunity agreement he had reportedly struck with the Department of Justice as part of her investigation.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/06/04/clinton-it-aide-pagliano-order-to-produce-doj-immunity-agreement.html
Sanders supporting actress Susan Sarandon says Hillary WILL be indicted – ‘It’s inevitable’
‘Nobody’s even talking about this indictment. What happens with that? Sarandon said Thursday. ‘Besides the trust issue of catching her in so many lies.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3623077/Sanders-supporting-actress-Susan-Sarandon-says-Hillary-indicted-s-inevitable.html
Adam have you ever thought the only reason Bernie is sticking it out is because they may well indeed indict the criminal lady? Even Bernie has called what she did criminal.
What difference does it make when Hellery is headed for being criminally indicted by the FBI for her felonies in connect with her server along with other criminal charges precluding her from being able to run for President?
Hillary Clinton to be Indicted on Federal Racketeering Charges
James Comey and The FBI will present a recommendation to Loretta Lynch, Attorney General of the Department of Justice, that includes a cogent argument that the Clinton Foundation is an ongoing criminal enterprise engaged in money laundering and soliciting bribes in exchange for political, policy and legislative favors to individuals, corporations and even governments both foreign and domestic.
http://uspolitics24.com/hillary-clinton-indicted-federal-racketeering-charges/
All to be made irrelevant, alas, by the pardon Obama will grant to Clinton on the day he leaves office. Only in America, thank God.
Hillary is the anointed one and the math does not matter. She got all the delegates in Wyoming before they even voted. SO WHY WORRY ABOUT THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!
I just hate the word ‘chance’ when it comes to voting. Are we voters just a chance to a politician? Seems so…
I wish Nate would announce who will win the NBA finals – Cleveland or Golden State – so I could bet opposite.
The problem with pollsters today is they make up their minds on the proper results before they survey. Then figure out how the results reinforce their preconceptions.
Hillary Clinton will win California and the chances of her being indicted are non existent.
Willaim Weld, the former head of the Criminal Division of the United States Department of Justice under the Reagan administration and the current Vice President nominee of the Liberterian party concurs. It seems people just don’t like Hillary because she’s a woman.
What Mish is really hoping for is the Trump people to ratfuck the CA primary for Sanders.
I cannot agree with your assessment that “people just don’t like Hillary because she’s a woman,” at all. If I felt a strong, fair, honest and ethical woman were in the running for candidacy, I’ve vote for her. Speaking your mind is a bonus, if you don’t have a problem backing it up with hard facts and conviction in it’s ethics.
Hillary is none of this, and that is why, I as a woman, would never vote for her. I’d write in George Lucas before I vote for her.
Give me a clever, decent woman in politics and I’d vote for her presidential candidacy, but from what I’ve noticed of local politics, most of them who are that way don’t move up the political ladder much as it’s a rotten, decaying tool that only the corrupt seem to be able to squirrel up.
Silver is a joke trying to manipulate data and people. He would have been a good Nazi propaganda man.
The story of 2016 election forecasting may be titled, “The Decline and Fall of Nate Silver”. His decline is not because his methodology deserted him but because he abandoned it and became a corporate shill.