It’s pretty pathetic to have a site called “Number Cruncher Politics” and not bother to crunch the numbers since May 31.
This is despite the fact the numbers have changed significantly in the past week.
I keep watching and watching and watching for further analysis from “Number Cruncher” on Brexit, in light of recent Brexit polls. However, paint dries weeks faster than updates.
Earlier today I reported Brexit Battle “Leave” Surges to 3 Point Lead.
That poll was by Observer/Opinium.
That is on the heels of May 31 Guardian surveys (both online and telephone) that shows Brexit in Lead For 1st Time.
At that time I asked “Did Cameron’s Brexit Fearmongering and Lies Backfire?”
Meanwhile, yet another Poll is in. This one, by YouGov for ITV, shows a four point lead for leave.
‘Leave’ Camp Leads in Brexit Battle as Major Turns Fire on Boris
Bloomberg reports ‘Leave’ Camp Leads in Brexit Battle as Major Turns Fire on Boris.
Campaigners to get Britain out of the European Union have moved into the lead, according to a YouGov poll that increases the pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron with less than three weeks until the referendum.
The poll for ITV’s Good Morning Britain program on Monday puts ‘Leave’ voters at 45 percent, and ‘Remain’ at 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided, according to an e-mailed statement. Similar surveys in May and April showed the ‘Remain’ camp leading. The poll comes on the back of others showing Brexit campaigners narrowing the gap or even leapfrogging ‘Remain’ in the debate to sway voters ahead of the June 23 vote.
The latest “Number Cruncher” analysis I can find is from May 31, Is Britain heading for Brexit? Latest polls by Matt Singh.
That’s quite pathetic for a site that is allegedly supposed to crunch political numbers.
I suggest Brexit is now a tossup.
Will Singh bury his head in the sand like Nate Silver did in the US? (See More Nate Silver Mathematical Nonsense, This Time on Hillary’s Odds)
We will find out soon. One cannot stay silent forever (and survive).
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
At this point, it’s Brexit or die….
Four percent undecideds uniformly decided to Brexit. Perhaps the remaining 11% undecided also lean Brexit and hesitate to firm such momentous change. Change is scary. The split was remarkably one sided in favor of Brexit.
The Brits should first look at the economy of nations like Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and France. Then they should have a close look at the banks in these nations. In addition have a quick look at what the ECB is up to. If you after this analysis still want to partner with these hopelessy insolvent nations/institutions then vote remain.
With friends like these you won´t need any enemies.
Can’t speak for Britain but I think the equity market will sell off…perhaps violently…here in the USA, interest rates will surge and we will have a wicked shot of inflation Over Here as a consequence.
Wars with both China and Russia look clearly on the table. Won’t be easy to prosecute if we start seeing full fledged riots in major urban centers across the Country.
Inexperienced (and unqualified for real life) academics can only “kick the can down the road” for so long.
Is there anyone stupid enough to claim that another lost decade of:
— zero rates stealing from savers to subsidize banksters
— trillions in additional “debt” (that won’t ever be repaid)
— more corrupt, self serving politicians
— more wars, bigger “security” state
is going to produce different results than the last ten years? Same stupid failed ideas in, same stupid failure out.
That is why Brexit is happening. That is why several nations inside the EU already decided to “temporarily” suspend edicts from eurocrats (who never obeyed their own rules in the first place). That is why anti-establishment candidates are leading in US presidential politics.
If the majority was happy with the corrupt status quo, Brexit wouldn’t be on the ballot at all.
We hope for the best, but we also know there is a bunch Neville Chamberlain in every corner of British spirit. It seems to be inbred.
Ron J said:
Jamie Dimon threatened his employees with unemployment if they didn’t vote to stay. How many will appease an American banker?
“Number Cruncher Politics”
“Push Polling”? Update figures quickly when the polls go the desired way, don’t update when they don’t.
Who pays for the site? Oligarchy Status Quo ‘R’ Us?
After all I’ve read and the videos I’ve watched, if the Brits vote against Brexit, I’ll have even less respect for their wisdom than I do for US voters which will be difficult since I have none at all for the latter. This will require negative numbers… The Brits have everything to gain by exiting and nothing to lose that’s not worth losing.
Destroying EU (the most important human social construction since Roman times) is stupid, EU is not only money, is the future of humankind if we pretend to live in this planet with over 9 billion person in the next century. EU is the most important tool to pacify countries, solve ancestral disputes, EUrope solved many war-prone problems in Brussels…and that is priceless.
If we think that “saving 300 million per week” is the only reason to leave then U.S can have more than 1000 reasons to dismantle United States of AMerica ( PR is a mess, Mississippi has been a losing bet since day one, Hawaii is costing U.S payer a bunch daily etc) we can save a bunch! destroying USA.
David A said:
“EU is the most important tool to pacify countries, solve ancestral disputes”
Well, the Nanny state certainly want it citizens to be obedient pacified babies, but socialism and dictatorship cause wars. Independence with property rights and individual liberty and responsibility prevent wars.
Ron J said:
“…a YouGov poll that increases the pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron with less than three weeks until the referendum.”
If Cameron is feeling any pressure, he is opposed to the will of the people of Britain. Cameron should not care which way the vote goes.
Common sense will prevail. What Brit citizen wants to be governed by a absentee non elected despots. It makes no sense to vote any way but out. Looking back what has Europe done to win the support of the over taxed English to be subjected to the whims of those who just want to push their project agenda to feather thier nest. I hope this sets off a stampede of a total Euroexit it’s long over due.