Five of the last eight polls taken on Brexit were in favor of “leave”, two in favor of “remain”, and one was neutral.
In the wake of those polls, odds on Brexit have shifted. But “remain is still heavily favored”.
Did the odds shift enough?
Betfair 28% Leave
The Financial Times reports Betting Odds Tilt Towards Brexit.
Following a raft of new opinion polls swinging towards ‘Leave’, the betting markets are the latest to send jitters to the UK’s pro-EU camp.
The probability of a “Brexit” vote has increased to 28 per cent according to bookmakers Betfair – a jump from 19 per cent seen at the end of May.
Although the Remain camp is still in a comfortable lead with a 72 per cent chance of victory, the latest set of odds show “the outers have gained momentum” said Betfair.
A survey of Daily Telegraph subscribers, carried out by the newspaper, showed 69 per cent of its 19,000 readers, intended to vote ‘Leave’.
Ladbroke 32% Leave
The Week reports Brexit Betting Odds Narrow as Remain’s Economic Lead Withers
A poll by Sir Lynton Crosby shows In camp’s lead on the economy has fallen from 21 to just eight points.
Two recent polls – including, crucially, a telephone survey for the first time – have put the Leave campaign in front. In response, bookmakers are repricing bets on Brexit, especially as the vast majority of money being gambled is for an Out vote.
Coral is now offering 7-4 on Leave, down from 5-2, says the Daily Express, as 90 per cent of bets in recent days have been on a Brexit.
Ladbrokes’s referendum tracker has the chances of a Leave victory at 32 per cent, up from 27 per cent.
This means that Remain is still a clear favourite and in most places it remains odds-on, but bookies’ confidence is being eroded.
Elsewhere, the latest weekly survey conducted by respected analyst Sir Lynton Crosby shows Remain still has a lead, but this has fallen to just one point at 48 to 47 per cent among those who will definitely vote.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Crosby says Remain is seen as best for UK economic prospects, ahead by 45 to 37 per cent. But it is worth noting that as recently as 23 May, its vote share on this issue was 54 per cent and its advantage 21 points.
Another poll earlier this month by Ipsos Mori found seven in ten voters believe they would be no worse off five years after a vote to leave the EU.
A new poll by Opinium for The Observer put Leave ahead on 43 to 40 per cent, while a YouGov poll for ITV will show it having a lead of four points on 45 to 41 per cent. A poll of the most recent six polls has shown Remain’s long-term lead narrowing markedly to just two points, on 51 to 49 per cent, the FT says.
Bookie Confidence
Once again we see a silly claim by writers who do not understand how bookies work. Odds have nothing to do with confidence of bookies. Odds have everything to do with confidence of the betting public.
If the books are balanced (and that is the point of betting odds) bookies do not care who wins or loses. If books get unbalanced by a sudden last minute shift, then bookies might care.
Most of the money is still on “remain” so the payout is low for those betting that way.
Is there collective wisdom in betters?
Leave Jumps Ahead
Number Cruncher 24% Leave
Despite sudden, significant, change in sentiment, Matt Singh at Number Cruncher Politics has come out of a week long slumber to report Brexit Likelihood has Increased, but Remain is Still Favourite.
Another History Lesson?
Singh says “Leave would need to be leading by more than 4 points at this stage to be considered favourite by the model.”
He concludes with “So while everyone is having fun running around like headless chickens, the clear-headed NCP assessment is that although Leave has had a good start to the campaign, Remain is ahead, and history suggests it’s favourite to remain there.”
Overconfidence Based on “History”
Singh could very well be right about “remain” even if his odds are way off.
He sounds remarkably like Nate Silver who kept citing historical reasons why Donald Trump would not win the nomination.
As with Nate Silver, I suggest Brexit watchers would be advised to pay attention to trends, not history.
Brexit Trends
- A telephone survey by the Guardian the first time put the Leave campaign in front.
- A new poll by Opinium for The Observer put Leave ahead on 43 to 40 per cent.
- A YouGov poll for ITV says leave has a lead of four points on 45 to 41 per cent.
- A poll by Sir Lynton Crosby shows the In camp’s lead on the economy has fallen from 21 to just eight points.
- A poll by Ipsos Mori found seven in ten voters believe they would be no worse off five years after a vote to leave the EU.
If this trend continues, “leave” is going to win. There is no reason to believe the trend will change, but it easily could.
Headless Chickens
As for who is running around like a headless chicken, look no further than prime minister David Cameron.
His over-the-top fearmongering campaign “Brexit Like Putting a Bomb Under the Economy” is laughable.
In his latest speech, Cameron repeated his warning of a “decade of uncertainty” if Britain leaves the EU. He also accused the Leave side of “sticking pins on a map” over how a future trade arrangement would work.
These kinds of blatant, obvious, lies will not win votes.
There is still time, for Remain to pull it out, but the odds are far closer to 50-50 than those betting on “history” suggest.
Cameron’s “headless chicken” fearmongering campaign may just be the final force that hands Leave a victory.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Speaking of chickens, the people of the UK will totally chicken out on exiting the EU when they go to the polls and will simply choose to remain in the EU just as the people of Scotland chose to remain within the UK. Any other choice would leave the UK shivering out in the cold and isolated from the EU economy which is the largest multi-country economy in the world with over 504 million people benefiting enormously from it including the people in the UK. The only pros to exiting would be that the UK would not have to shoulder further costs of the EU, but that would come at a very steep price to the economy of the UK, including its vibrant financial economy which would be highly marginalized by an exit from the EU.
What really should be on the ballot in the UK is a second choice allowing voters to DUMP THE POUND IN FAVOR OF THE EURO to make the UK a more vibrant and important member of the UK with a common currency that is second only to the US dollar as the most important currency in the world.
I am so glad you do not speak for me. Ask the Greeks how “vibrant” they find the Euro.
Mohamed El-Erian: Brexit could solve a fundamental EU problem
A U.K. exit from the European Union may be the necessary evil to save the future of the political bloc, even if it comes at the expense of short-term volatility, according to former Pimco executive Mohamed El-Erian.
“There are two fundamental divisions of the EU: There’s the British view — that it’s a super free-trade zone, that it’s a destination. Whereas the Germany-France view is that it’s a means to something else — to an ever closer union. These are fundamentally two very different views on what the EU is about,” he said.
“If the referendum [results in the U.K. remaining in the union],” El-Erian said, “we don’t resolve these different views. It means we are going to have tensions over and over again, because they are pursuing two different objectives, within one institutional agreement. So, ironically, over the longer term, an exit may actually solve one of the basic inconsistencies of the European Union.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mohamed-el-erian-brexit-could-solve-a-fundamental-eu-problem-2016-06-07
Which will be terrible for the EU because it will lose one of its most capitalist and globalist members. The last thing the EU needs is to become even more left-wing and regulatory.
Not to mention, ever-closer union being a disaster and there being a growing gap between the people of Europe and politicians of Europe on the issue.
A Brexit would be LITERALLY FATAL for the financial interests in the UK but really wouldn’t affect the EU much at all.
Yes, all true, but see,
https://www.rt.com/uk/345545-mps-majority–single-market/
That speculation is moot as the UK voters will vote to stay in the EU.
PROCEDURES AND RULES FOR A COUNTRY FOR WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EU
Withdrawal from the European Union is a right of European Union (EU) member states under the Treaty on European Union (Article 50): “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.”
No state has ever withdrawn from the EU.
No member state has ever held a national referendum on withdrawal from the European Union, though in 1975 the United Kingdom held a national referendum on withdrawal from its predecessor, the EEC; 67.2% of voters chose to remain in the Community. The United Kingdom will hold a referendum on 23 June 2016 to decide whether it should remain a member of the European Union or leave.
The rules and procedures to withdraw are detailed in the full article below.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union
Hostile audience grills Cameron during EU Referendum debate…
Accused of ‘waffling’, ‘scaremongering’…
Hammered on immigration…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/02/eu-referendum-debate-david-cameron-quizzed-live-on-sky-news/
How Low Could Pound Go in a `Brexit’? Economists See 1985 Levels
A British exit from the European Union would be so devastating for the pound that 29 out of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey see it sinking to $1.35 or below within a week of a vote to leave — levels last seen in 1985.
Twenty-three of the economists say sterling wouldn’t recover from that rate within three months of the June 23 referendum. Seven see the U.K. currency falling below $1.20 immediately after a “Brexit” vote. And just one sees it above $1.40. That’s stronger than its low on Wednesday, when the pound fell through $1.39 for the first time since 2009.
Reaching the lowest level versus the dollar since 1985 would mean surpassing 2009’s low of $1.3503 and see it tumble to levels unvisited since Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-24/how-low-could-pound-fall-in-a-brexit-economists-say-try-1985
After this silly little ballot initiative is blown to shreds, the UK should put another ballot initiative on the ballot to fully join the EUROZONE and dump the archaic and silly little currency they presently have in favor or the Euro.
Have you been living under a rock for the last 10 years?
I wouldn’t bother Ben, AP is very erratic and provocative and you won’t get a sensible debate from him…. but then you are not me . My two cents .
Where have you been living? The EU is the greatest thing that Europe has ever seen in its hideously erratic history over the past 1000 years.
1,000 Years Of Euro History In 3 Minutes
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=14d_1348362692
The Pound is worth more than the Euro. You do realize that, no? I would point out a number of EU members haven’t joined the Euro Zone also.
Where do you come up with the ridiculous notion that “the point is worth more than the Euro?” The nominal exchange rate is absolutely meaningless.
Brexit could weaken the Euro more than the pound. British are resourceful and would survive handily without the burdens of immigration, bureaucratic regulation, and EU taxes. Once the merits of exit are apparent to those suffering under the Euro then a scramble to renounce the Euro could ensue. If the weak indebted economies leave the Euro would that leave the Euro stronger or weaker? Stronger, unless several trillion of Euro debt is most assuredly defaulted.
Nope. The pound would go plummeting if the UK left the EU and so would the entire financial sector in the UK which is by far the largest industry that exists today within the UK as it would become increasingly marginalized.
Germany’s Merkel, after a humiliating defeat for her party in state elections, claimed she would not change her position on illegal immigration… a week later she announced she was changing her official position. The CDU wanted to stay in power more than they wanted to protect Merkel, and the AfP made it clear they would be happy to remove both.
Cameron can tell the UK to read his lips, he did not have sex with his intern, he did not have a bank account in Panama, and he will not allow England to leave the unelected EU bureaucracy. MP’s can “go on the telly” and say they won’t approve England leaving even if voters tell them otherwise…
But that is the wrong question to ask. The correct question for MPs in England is the same as it is for German parliament members: do you want to keep your life of luxury and privilege in office, or do you want to be replaced and forced to get a real job?
Its the same question that Paul Ryan, “never going to support Trump”, asked himself before flip flopping and endorsing Trump.
Its the same question DNC apparitniks (party delegates?) are losing sleep over now: do as the party commands and lose power/priviledge next January, or vote as the electorate requires them to and risk angering party officials today.
Europe can not survive without UK trade (and vice versa) — but both can and have survived quite nicely without a giant EU bureaucracy. Every voter knows this, and no matter what lies they say on TV every politician does also.
A more interesting question is: What are the odds that some other country will leave the EU before the UK implements voter wishes? One of the PIIGS? Austria? Netherlands?
If Mario Draghi continues to steal German savings and wreck German banks, only a fool would rule out the possibility of Merkel getting pushed out — and Germany leaving the EU. To quote another politician / crook: “Its the economy stupid!”
Probably best to review former Greek finance PM yanis. He cites many points not considered and believes the euro policy will fail but states better to be part of it if you want any changes. To be on the outside of the building when it collapses still will cause pain. see his you tube talk from Seattle. He states they all know the euro policies are shit but with so much political capital at stake they can’t turn back. They have a complete disregard for the voters and believe they do not matter. This is a runaway train wreck about to happen.
the EU comes apart regardless……..without consolidating debt [and that will never happen, or should] it is a monstrosity destined for failure.
this breakup sets off the inevitable debt/credit/entitlement bubble reset.
head-in-the-sand types better pull it out and look around, or you will lose almost everything.
Europe will continue to be a lovely and prosperous place and all of the countries of the EU will remain in the EU for the foreseeable future including the UK.
LOL.
The EU is doomed.
Brits are lucky to have a chance to escape before the SHTF.
The only truth is NOBODY can foretell what the consequences will be if there were a brexit.
Just the way things presently are, UK is a leading member of the EU, an institution which is not by far perfect but it is where we are, geographically, culturally and economically. UK has been allowed to keep the pound, set limits to immigration and the benefits they endorse to EU immigrants, so we have a dominant position in this club.
If we leave, nobody knows which role we may play. Personally I’m ok as I am and I see good future prospects for UK as it is, so I’m not jumping into the void that would be leaving the EU
Pingback: Why Brexit Shouldn’t Concern British Entrepreneurs – Internet Marketing for Business