Not only does the EU have its hands full with a sudden surge in favor of Brexit, it also has to deal with a sudden surge in the popularity of Spain’s Eurosceptic “United We Can” party.
Center right Popular Party (PP) candidate and acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy was widely expected to gain seats following the failed election in 2015.
Recent polls shows PP is losing seats to the once fractured Podemos (We Can) party after it aligned with IU forming “United We Can”.
December 2015 Election Results vs. Current Projections
The above charts from El Pais.
Mighty PSOE Eclipsed by Far Left
The Financial Times reports Spain’s Once-Mighty Socialists Set to be Eclipsed by Far-Left.
The Spanish left is heading for a wrenching realignment at this month’s repeat general election, with a closely watched new poll suggesting that the centre-left Socialist party will be eclipsed by the far-left Unidos Podemos bloc.
With the official election campaign set to kick off at midnight on Thursday, Unidos Podemos was forecast to win 25.6 per cent of the vote and 88-92 seats in the 350-strong parliament.
The latest poll, by the respected state-funded CIS research institute, gave the once-mighty Socialists just 21.2 per cent and 78-80 seats. If confirmed on June 26, the day of the election, that shift would offer fresh evidence of the deepening crisis facing Europe’s embattled social democrats.
Last month, the anti-austerity Podemos party and the United Left, which includes Spain’s former Communist party, decided to set aside their rivalry and run on a joint list dubbed Unidos Podemos (United We Can). For the Socialists, the traditional standard-bearer of the left, the fallout from that deal appears to be highly damaging.
According to the CIS survey, the Socialists and Unidos Podemos could control as many as 172 seats in parliament, just four shy of an absolute majority. Meanwhile, the PP and the centrist, pro-business Ciudadanos party are predicted to win at most 160 seats between them.
But party leaders and analysts alike caution that the Socialists are deeply reluctant to throw in their lot with Unidos Podemos, especially if that alliance were to be led by Podemos chief Pablo Iglesias.
“I don’t see the Socialists supporting Iglesias as prime minister,” said José Fernández-Albertos, a political scientist at the CSIC research centre. “The more likely outcome is that they will abstain and let Rajoy govern [in minority] but will go into the opposition themselves. They will tell their supporters: We cannot support the PP but we also have to be responsible.”
Another Hung Election?
Mathematically, it appears there will be another hung election.
None of the other parties like PP or its corrupt leader, Mariano Rajoy.
A three-way coalition between Unidos Podemos, PSOE, and Ciudadanos is the least likely outcome.
Undecided Voters
Undecided voters will determine the outcome.
El Pais reports the CIS survey shows 11% abstainers and 22% of respondents who have are undecided. Abstention on December 20 was 26.8%.
The undecideds will determine the outcome. And they appear to be breaking towards Unidos Podemos, a name that literally translates as “United We Can”, a nice campaign slogan.
If Unidos Podemos plus PSOE can achieve an absolute majority, I will guess the socialists will indeed unite, contrary to the opinion expressed above.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
It wouldn’t have taken much to make the European experiment a success – abundant food, affordable housing, and a generous health and welfare safety net for European citizens – but the leadership simply couldn’t see past their own mundane greed and end the insidious rent-seeking that has plagued us throughout history. Whatever happens next is squarely on their conscience.
The way politics work, is that those able to seek the most rent, are the ones able to use that rent to run the best funded campaigns. Leading to ever increased rent seeking everywhere. It’s a fundamental feature of government, not a bug that can ever be fixed.
According to survey, current PSOE voters far prefer their party work with Podemos than PP, or even let PP through. The PSOE leader admitted that it had lost votes due to having previously formed a pact with Ciudadanos, more centrist than leftist. Ironically, unless PP is allowed through, Podemos might be offering PSOE a vice presidency, where PSOE had previously turned down a pact that would have given the presidency to PSOE , and a vice presidency to Podemos.
Either Spain will end up with a dysfunctional PP government or a new leftwing direction in an untested coalition.
Podemos are about as experienced as Syriza, so there is no telling exactly how a government led by them would perform, but I think they are a bit closer to their base than Syriza were and are.
PSOE had previously turned down a pact that would have given the presidency to PSOE , and a vice presidency to Podemos.
That was the offer but it was not an offer they could really make. They did not have enough for a majority and still need a party that would not go along.
As it stands, they still need to pick up a handful of seats.
Possible, perhaps even likely. I do not know how much to trust these polls.
Mish
The pact would have needed 17 of the 28 independent seats, more than likely given they are all but 2 or 3 well to the left, their vote was known beforehand, though obviously not guaranteed.
The only real poll is the vote itself. Given that most current polls aren’t way off the above, it seems the only question is if Podemos or PSOE gain second place in seats, which does make a big difference in how negotiations might proceed afterwards.
It is no coincidence Soros is shorting the euro. The handwriting is on the wall. He is betting on Brexit with other countries following once they see Britain prosper instead of imploding.
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The real frightening scenario would be a Unidos Podemos + PSOE + regional nationalists alliance. The outcome would be Yugoslavia 2.0 (or Spanish Civil War 2.0). Spanish politics are best understood in terms of tribes, not politics. Supposedly center-right PP has made so many concessions to the left that it is in practice acting as a left party—to no avail in terms of votes: it is still the tribe perpetually hated by the opposite tribe. And it has made so many concessions to the regional nationalists that the whole country is now on the verge of imploding. No way back, I’d say.
Perhaps the most optimistic outcome would be a protracted mess (we’re almost there). Ever heard about Africa?
That is pretty much it. The problem with a protracted mess is that the opposition gain from it, that would be the further left parties. In Greece Syriza has lost its lead in polls due to backtracking, so I think Podemos will be learning from them. Podemos have declared themselves as everything, from nationalists, independentist, social democrats, far left, europeanist, euro exit… but always social spending… so if they ever take power they will have some explaining to do, for now the party works as opposition by saying whatever without having to implement a thing… which is easy given the mistakes of the other parties.
The spending concessions made by PP are because the old national structure of authority is no more, they no longer have sympathizers placed in positions of power ( financial and bureaucratic) across the country, they no longer own monetary policy either … what do they have left to offer and organize except something along the lines of the other parties, that which is effectively offered/imposed by EU fiscal policy rules and finance ? Nothing to the right is compatible with the euro, a complete contradiction in terms.
I just hope that if it ends up being sorted out in the streets that it will be more of a brawl than civil conflict.
They’re not euroesceptics. They are the spanish version of Syriza. In case any of you want to know more about them, feel free to ask.