I received an email from Jon Hartley, Researcher and Policy Analyst for Real Time Macroeconomics on the differences between JOLTS job openings and his research as discussed in BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!.
Here are the two charts again, along with new comments from Jon Hartley.
BLS: Job Openings vs. Hires
Job Openings – Real Time Macroeconomics
Hartley writes …
Hey Mish,
On the data, a couple things which I outlined in my last interview with Cris:
- Our figure is a series of “new” job openings, while the BLS JOLTS number is “total” job openings.
- Our data is purely online, whereas BLS JOLTS is offline, which can create specific biases in either series.
- JOLTS uses a small sample size and hence can introduce a lot of noise, whereas our sample size is much larger.
Hope this shines some light on the differences between the series.
Thanks,
Jon
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
fwiw, I’ve come to the conclusion that some openings are phantom.
How many? Hoo knows. An opening listed but business will only hire if an EXCEPTIONAL candidate available, or more likely used for intel purpose. Hoo wouldn’t want a former (or better yet, current) employee of a competitor to sit on the other side of the desk for awhile?
Many HR departments constantly gather resumes for positions that may or may not come open, just so that they can quickly replace a position. The resume gathered are discarded after a couple of months.
Employers looking for “Purple Squirrels”
It is very common for larger companies with large, high skilled workforces to “hire based on talent, not need.” Most software development jobs at, say Google or MS, are not specific to the point where there is a one-to-one mapping between a specific set of tasks and a specific employee. Rather, the idea is that talented developers will provide enough value distributed across the organization, to be worth vile employing.
So, as you say, at least for those companies, lessened desire/ability to take on new hires, won’t necessarily show up in a reduced number of job wanted ads. But rather in a reduced share of those applying ends up getting the job. In expansions, standards may drop a bit since more hands are needed, while in downturns, only the most exceptional get through the needle eye.
No comments here, no surprise! Guess the market will make another new high today!
The other side needs looking at Mush, namely firings.
I mean Mish of course, predictive text.