The US Treasury Department released its Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) report today.
For the fiscal year through May (eight months), growth in individual tax receipts slowed sharply and corporate tax collection is negative compared to the same period a year ago.
Here is a set of charts I put together.
Federal Income Tax Receipts – Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Federal Income Tax Receipts – Individuals
Federal Income Tax Receipts – Corporations
- Years are not totally comparable
- Fiscal year to date is October to May (eight months)
- 2016 and 2012 were leap years adding to extra work day and extra tax deposit day in February (and year-to-date)
- Fiscal Year 2013 was influence by a tax hike.
Thanks to reader Tony for those notes.
The year-over-year trends do not represent a strengthening economy, especially in light of a recovery that until the last jobs report, Fed Chair Janet Yellen assumed was picking up steam.
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- New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I’ll Take “The Under”); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock