Records Made to Be Broken
US Treasury bears are taking it on the chin again today. The long end of the curve staged another big rally.
Yields on long term bonds are approaching record lows.
Recovery Increasingly in Question
- The 30-year long bond is just 19 basis points from the low set in January of 2015.
- The 10-year note is just 20 basis points from the low set in July of 2012.
Warning to Treasury Bears
Rate Hike Odds Collapse Again
It’s beyond ridiculous to consider rate hikes for June. June hike odds have fallen to 2%.
Odds of a hike are less than 50-50 through November.
In December, rate hike odds are roughly 55-45 in favor. That may last until the next poor jobs report.
- April Flashback: 75% of Economists Expected June Hike
- Horrendous Jobs Report: Fed Hiking Not: Payroll Jobs +38K, Employed +26K, Labor Force -458K, Revisions -59K
- Four GDP Estimates: New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I’ll Take “The Under”); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?
- Construction Questions: Construction Employment Declines Back-to-Back First Time Since May 2012; Questions of the Day
Mike “Mish” Shedlock