A new poll by ORB for The Independent shows Leave has a 55-45 lead in the Brexit battle. Mat Singh at Number Cruncher Politics says the poll is flawed. Let’s take a look.
Massive Swing Towards Brexit
The Independent reports EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – With Just 12 Days to Go.
The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.
The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.
Even when the findings are not weighted for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain on 47 per cent (down three). The online poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, suggests the Out camp has achieved momentum at the critical time ahead of the 23 June referendum.
Tweets from and to Matt Singh at Number Cruncher Politics suggest the poll is flawed.
The implied turnout are undoubtedly on the high side. They are also biased in favor of older voters more likely to vote Leave. The implied turnout for 55+ is 96% to 98%. The implied turnout for 18-34 is 86% to 88%. However, older voters are more likely to vote than younger voters. If older voters tun out by a margin that exceed 10 percentage points, the sample could actually be biased in favor of Remain.
It is difficult to make any case for the above sample. It is undoubtedly biased in favor of Leave.
Accurate Way to Judge Polls
The above chart from UK Referendum Polling.
That is the most accurate way to judge polls. And trends suggest Remain has every reason to be worried. Undecide voters are swinging heavily towards Leave.
Matt Singh and others may be making make a huge error in believing historical trends will save the day for Remain, just as Nate Silver made a huge mistake underestimating Donald Trump’s odds in the US.
Silver ignored five Indiana polls breaking in favor of Trump, only to switch his odds on the last day. For details, please see Silver Flushes Secret Sauce Down Toilet, Now Projects Trump has 69% Chance.
Anti-establishment sentiment is on the rise everywhere.
In Austria, the center-right and center-left candidates were kicked out in the first round of voting for the first time since 1945. A Green Party Candidate is Now President, barely beating the anti-immigration Freedom party candidate. The election was decided by mail-in votes amidst accusations of fraud.
In Spain, the Eurosceptic “United We Can” Party is Surging in Polls.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s Eurosceptic National Front party is the most popular. A PEW survey shows Favorable Opinion of EU Plunges Everywhere, Especially France.
Final results are too close to call. Odds are nowhere near as high for Remain as Singh suggests. This will all come down to two things:
- How undecideds break
Right now, undecideds are breaking heavily towards Leave. That trend will have to continue to seal the fate, but there is no reason to believe it won’t. Moreover, it appears fear-mongering is not helping the Remain camp at all.
Finally, for those still on the fence, I offer the #1 Reason to Vote Brexit: Goldman Sachs, JPM, IMF Seek Remain.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock