A new poll by ORB for The Independent shows Leave has a 55-45 lead in the Brexit battle. Mat Singh at Number Cruncher Politics says the poll is flawed. Let’s take a look.
Massive Swing Towards Brexit
The Independent reports EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – With Just 12 Days to Go.
The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.
The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.
Even when the findings are not weighted for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain on 47 per cent (down three). The online poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, suggests the Out camp has achieved momentum at the critical time ahead of the 23 June referendum.
Poll Flawed?
Tweets from and to Matt Singh at Number Cruncher Politics suggest the poll is flawed.
The implied turnout are undoubtedly on the high side. They are also biased in favor of older voters more likely to vote Leave. The implied turnout for 55+ is 96% to 98%. The implied turnout for 18-34 is 86% to 88%. However, older voters are more likely to vote than younger voters. If older voters tun out by a margin that exceed 10 percentage points, the sample could actually be biased in favor of Remain.
It is difficult to make any case for the above sample. It is undoubtedly biased in favor of Leave.
Accurate Way to Judge Polls
The above chart from UK Referendum Polling.
That is the most accurate way to judge polls. And trends suggest Remain has every reason to be worried. Undecide voters are swinging heavily towards Leave.
History
Matt Singh and others may be making make a huge error in believing historical trends will save the day for Remain, just as Nate Silver made a huge mistake underestimating Donald Trump’s odds in the US.
Silver ignored five Indiana polls breaking in favor of Trump, only to switch his odds on the last day. For details, please see Silver Flushes Secret Sauce Down Toilet, Now Projects Trump has 69% Chance.
Anti-establishment sentiment is on the rise everywhere.
In Austria, the center-right and center-left candidates were kicked out in the first round of voting for the first time since 1945. A Green Party Candidate is Now President, barely beating the anti-immigration Freedom party candidate. The election was decided by mail-in votes amidst accusations of fraud.
In Spain, the Eurosceptic “United We Can” Party is Surging in Polls.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s Eurosceptic National Front party is the most popular. A PEW survey shows Favorable Opinion of EU Plunges Everywhere, Especially France.
Final Results
Final results are too close to call. Odds are nowhere near as high for Remain as Singh suggests. This will all come down to two things:
- How undecideds break
- Turnout
Right now, undecideds are breaking heavily towards Leave. That trend will have to continue to seal the fate, but there is no reason to believe it won’t. Moreover, it appears fear-mongering is not helping the Remain camp at all.
Finally, for those still on the fence, I offer the #1 Reason to Vote Brexit: Goldman Sachs, JPM, IMF Seek Remain.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
wake up world and USA am sick and tired of the bilderbergs, criminal clintons, bushes who got us into wars so rothchilds elites with their war machines can get richer . WAKE up they dont care about us surfs so they call us. We all need to rise up and take what is right fully our humanity back from these plotting criminals. I hope england votes to keep out of this 1 world order club, imagine to threaten them if they dont stay when they never were part of it to begin with. THESE power mongers need their bloody noses running with blood, WAKE UP EVERY ONE before they even exterminate us, jail us they have already taken our money, jobs, dignity NOW IS THE TIME TO FIGHT THESE PARASITES
The shrill voices and flawed arguments of remain grow louder as they get more desperate. Grow some balls fellow countrymen, because you are not going to be allowed a second chance to escape.
Living here in the UK, I can tell you that every trick in the book is being used to swing this vote to “remain”.
In fact, even if the referendum is to “Brexit”, members of parliament will override that vote.
“MPs who back the UK staying in the European Union may attempt to keep the country inside the single market even if there is a vote for Brexit.
The pro-Remainers, who include most Labour MPs, a large number of Conservatives, and the SNP, hold a strong House of Commons majority.
Many are already planning to use their votes to push for the UK to remain inside the European single market, while accepting the public’s decision to exit the EU, in the event of a Leave victory in the 23 June referendum.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-mps-may-push-to-keep-uk-in-european-single-market-despite-brexit-vote-a7067056.html
If voting made a difference, they wouldn’t allow you to do it.
It’s a done deal, we’re staying in – whether we like it or not.
And, in a similar vein, the Dems are getting Hilary – whether they like it or not.
The game is rigged.
Jeremy – is that wishful thinking on your part? Are you a closet “remain” poster? Is this an attempt to get Brexit voters to think that there’s no point in going to vote because “the game is rigged”, that their vote won’t matter? Just let the MP’s try to remain! Good luck with that.
No one should be complacent. Brexit voters need to get out en masse. It will be your last chance to have a country, as they will never allow this vote to happen again – ever. Get out and vote to leave.
During a local election in my area, the polls showed that the vote was too close to call. Then all of a sudden (about a month before the election) they showed one side way ahead of the other. People became complacent because of this (lies), didn’t bother going out to vote for their side (because it was now “assured” by the pollsters to win), and what do you think happened? That’s right, the other side one because people became complacent.
Get out and vote to leave, or you will lose your country. It is already and will be further swallowed up by corporations and vested interests who do not have your interest at heart.
Adam Price – bullshite!
@ Backwards – I’m voting “leave”.
We were told, way back when, that if we didn’t ditch the pound and adopt the euro that the country would cease to be a financial powerhouse.
Didn’t quite work out that way.
We ‘ll do fine on our own.
Jeremy – yep, you’ll do just fine. Make sure you get all of your friends out to vote. Don’t let them be complacent. Good luck, Jeremy.
There is a simple phrase for this :
“Do your best”.
Do your best by going out to vote. The vote is not one of political affiliation, it is one of disaffiliation from foreign influence, of bringing the responsibility of those who govern you to within your own reach.
My choice?
I am disenfranchised.
That says everything to me, the country has become a franchise. No Englishman has the right to mortgage off UK sovereignty, ever. I question the origin of any person voting to remain under EU influence.
There is nothing to stop, nor will there be, any UK citizen moving to the continent, living there, and if it suits obtaining a second nationality. Why, therefore, would they wish to sell off British independence and identity. Is it that they wish to destroy the country?
I can guarantee that anyone who takes up residence on the continent will at some point think ‘Thank God we have our own country also ‘ . For that to continue the UK must regain its sovereignty, that once lost it will never be returned in any semblance of what it has traditionally been.
Every few decades, there is a simple question placed to the citizens of Britain, it isn’t what kind of Britain you prefer, who you would like to govern you for the next four years.
The question is ‘Are you British? ‘.
Get out and vote.
Sent
President Obama will send over some Cook County voting officials to make sure every graveyard is counted. And if Brexit should win, we know Parliament or some court will invalidate it.
Rufus – get out and vote for Brexit anyway. All of these “it’s a done deal, they’ll never allow Brexit” comments make people not want to bother voting.
It’s not a done deal. Get out and vote to leave.
Adam Price – oh, there will be “hugely deleterious consequences”, people! Look out! The sky is falling! Scare-mongering, pure and simple. Who’s paying you, Adam?
Just cheering you on bwr. If AP’s comments go uncontested they effectively make it look like no one can, or is willing to, challenge them. I cannot reply to him as I do not read his comments, have to protect my own sanity . I read the replies to him though :-).
Now could be a good time to sell Euro assets and convert to a stable currency.
I actually think Britain is intentionally devaluing the Pound “Sanding” because they really are serious about the currency War going on and intend on “winning” (whatever that means.)
The amount of information sharing between the USA and Great Britain is so enormous that the Russians sent a Naval Vessel directly over the main telecommunication cable and in fact was ordered to “move away” by both the USA and Great Britain.
It is interesting that equities sold off on the news of this poll though as I really am unclear what the criticality of the British economy is to the “global economy” at large.
Very impressive soccer melee between the Russians and Brits in France yesterday though.
Ramping up troops in Afghanistan, ramping up troops in Syria, ramping up troops in Libya, 30,000 man NATO Army exercise, forward deployment of missile defense systems to Romania and Poland, a lot of noise in the South China Sea.
Sure doesn’t sound like Full Force Peacenik to me.
Sounds like a draft might be imminent actually.
I don’t think Great Britain will have a problem with that but in the USA is very much a House Divided right now.
Adam – oh, yeah, Merkel is going to isolate 60 million consumers? Yeah, I don’t think so. The UK will be fine, just like Switzerland is.
Once we’ve left we’ll do bilateral trade deals.
Works for China, Switzerland, etc.
The stress that’s building is the need for the “not Germany’s” to rebalance their trade deficits with Germany. Here in the US we do this by locating our MIC plants in trade deficit states like Arizona. Surplus states like California pay taxes in excess of receipts and those tax dollars then flow to the deficit states to buy fighter planes thus canceling the trade imbalance . Europe has no such mechanism so it is falling apart. In addition the crazy Germans insist on austerity for these same deficit regions coincident with a second Great Depression that is gripping the whole world. If it weren’t for the suicides and the 50% youth unemployment this would be comically ironic.
Fascinating situation…As watchman says, there won’t be a 2d chance to leave the Eurothugs and their masses of immigrants….If Britain misses this chance, strictly toast, with no jam…..
Adam – wow, poetic. Switzerland is doing just fine, as will the UK.
The European Union (EU) has worked out spectacularly well for the more than 504 million people living within the 28 countries that form the EU and resulted in the greatest level of German influence over the European Continent since the dreams of the Third Reich were postponed a few years back. Today, as a partial result of the EU we have BMW Rolls-Royce and VW Bentley motor cars that stand atop of the world of motor vehicles and which are the envy of the entire world and the best motor cards ever produced anywhere in the world.
The EU is the largest multi-country economy in the world with nearly $19 trillion a year in GDP and Germany has become one of the wealthiest and most prosperous countries in the world. The Fourth Reich is becoming a vibrant reality and nothing could possibly be more wonderful.
If a few folks don’t like the EU, then so what?
Adam – how much are they paying you, Adam? The EU has NOT worked out spectacularly. Thanks for the Saturday laugh. Germany has reaped almost all of the benefits. Hey, it’s been good for them.
@Adam
Worked out spectacularly well?
“Almost every fourth person in the EU was still at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2014.
More than 30 % of young people aged 18 to 24 and 27.8 % of children aged less than 18 were at risk in 2014.
At 17.8 %, this rate was considerably lower among the elderly aged 65 or over.”
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Europe_2020_indicators_-_poverty_and_social_exclusion
@Adam … there is a massive difference between how things work in one of your academic exercises, and how things work in the real world.
Lots of people on MishTalk and in UK who are on both sides of the issue and with strong opinions either way — but telling us what your academic models say was supposed to happen will not influence the opinions of people who are actually experiencing the results first hand.
When reality and your model diverge, it means your model is wrong.
Please share this not very new insight with the other academics at the FOMC and ECB.
Adam cannot sell his Euro bonds lest “Whatever it takes” Draghi send two of his mafia thugs who escort Adam to the rooftop of the bank.
I’m reasonably certain that calling the EU the “Fourth Reich” is NOT intended to be a compliment. I detect an element of sarcasm here that other posters seem to have missed.
The Third Reich was a spectacular failure, FYI.
I do wonder what the next name for the European project will be.
It started out as the European Coal and Steel Community (1952), then became the European Economic Community (1957), then the European Community (1967), then the European Union (1993).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_European_Union
What’s the next name – the European Soviet Union, perchance?
Paid propagandist alert
10 pts, 20 pts or 30 pts……all that really matters is the final count.
They’ve turned it into a another horse race, just like Scotland and Austria.
I predict the “remains” win by a nose in a photo finish.
One of the most important factors that everyone has ignored: Who counts the votes? Did Singh include that in his methodology? It should be given added weight.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Adam Price – you deleted all, but one, of your posts. There were about six or seven of them, but now there’s just one. Makes it look as if we are responding to a ghost. Why did you do that?
I deleted Adam Price’s comments.
Numerous people complaining – many asking me to outright ban him.
One person said the same thing happened on Stockman’s site
Mish
This is why we can’t have nice things.
Maybe a limit on how many comments allowed per topic per person?
It’s the long relentless threads I find tiring.
It won’t come down to two things. Only one thing matters – who counts the votes. Polls don’t require IDs, and write-in votes will be what ever the establishment requires. This vote is to important for the EU to lose, so they won’t. However, just as we will see in Nov, rigged/stolen elections only feeds the discontent and anger for the establishment, and they certainly won’t stop the govt bubble from popping (and it won’t be a slow leak).
“If voting made any difference they wouldn’t let us do it.” ― Mark Twain
“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” ― Joseph Stalin
Considering the immigration implications of remaining a member of the EU, I’d hope this promotes voting for a Brexit:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/06/04/oma%20image_0.jpg
Well, it appears that Donald Trump was right again.
But watch the mainstream media and the dems try to spin this and blame Trump even though the mass murderer was a muslim and a registered democrat voter.