Following news of a potentially flawed poll on Friday that shows a 10 point lead in favor of Brexit comes an even more incredible poll that allegedly shows a 19 point lead for Brexit.
The Sunday Express reports End of EU rule FINALLY in sight: Leave camp take 19-POINT lead as Britons flock to Brexit.
The Opinium Poll, commissioned by the Brexit-backing Bruges Group think tank, is further evidence that the Leave camp is gaining support and delivers the biggest margin of victory for Brexit so far, after giving voters the option of a choice of free trade agreements with the EU.
It found 52 per cent chose to leave the EU, with only 33 per cent choosing to keep the status quo.
Despite there being less than two weeks before the crucial referendum, on June 23, a further 15 per cent said they still didn’t know.
Of those who voted to leave the majority, 39 per cent, said that Britain should have some sort of Free Trade Agreement with the EU, similar to the one currently enjoyed between the US, Canada and Mexico.
A further 13 per cent said they would accept the off-the-shelf-membership of EFTA, the European Free Trade Association with a single market.
Opinium Research
Brexit Poll Tracker
The Financial Times’ Brexit Tracker sees it like this.
Debate Feud
For details of the debate feud, see Remain Team Turns Fire on Boris Johnson in EU Vote Debate.
David Cameron’s allies rejoiced at the sight of Amber Rudd, energy secretary, trying to undermine the credibility of Mr Johnson, the talismanic leader of the campaign to take Britain out of the EU.
Ms Rudd, one of three female politicians representing the Remain side, claimed that Mr Johnson’s case for leaving the EU was a “complete fantasy” and that “the only number Boris is interested in is Number 10”.
Ms Rudd was joined by Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, and Angela Eagle, shadow business secretary, in mounting the co-ordinated attack on Mr Johnson and the “lies” told by the Leave campaign.
Mr Cameron promised last month at the G7 summit in Japan that he would cease “blue on blue” attacks against Tory colleagues but seems to have concluded that the best way to undermine the Leave side is to take out its frontman.
In the face of such hostility, Mr Johnson adopted an unfamiliar role as a restrained purveyor of “hard, cold, empirical fact”, promising to rise above the “personal stuff” being deployed by his opponents.
His two Brexit colleagues — Andrea Leadsom, energy minister, and Labour MP Gisela Stuart — were low-key but quietly effective, as they set out on a mission to reassure voters that a Leave vote would not be “a leap in the dark”.
Anecdotal surveys suggested the more restrained approach of Ms Leadsom and Ms Stuart appealed to viewers, although Ms Rudd also scored highly in an instant poll with readers of the Times Red Box. Some Conservative commentators said they thought Ms Rudd’s attacks on Mr Johnson had gone too far.
Brexit Poll Trends
List of Individual Polls
Comments
- The caption reads complete list of polls. I chopped it off at May 15.
- Any polls before June are now not worth a dime, except for trend analysis.
- Of the last 11 polls it’s 7-4 in favor of leave, but three of the Leave votes were in May.
- Of the June polls, its 4-4.
- Of the two latest June polls it is 1-1, by 2 percentage points for Remain, and 1 percentage point for leave.
- The latest three pools are overall strongly in favor of Leave but I am reluctant to put much weight behind polls with wild swings.
Too Close to Call
This is too close to call. I suggest the odds of remain are nowhere near the 76-24 split assigned by Matt Singh.
The undecideds have been strongly breaking for Brexit. That trend may or may not have stalled, but we need to see more results to know for sure.
Two Things
This will all come down to two things:
- How undecideds break
- Turnout
Right now, undecideds are breaking heavily towards Leave. That trend will have to continue to seal the fate, but there is no reason to believe it won’t. Moreover, it appears fear-mongering is not helping the Remain camp at all.
History Lesson
Matt Singh, like Nate Silver before him in the US, relies too much on history, in a political year with many surprises.
For further discussion, please see New Poll Shows Brexit With 10-Point Lead: Is it Flawed?
Finally, for those still on the fence, I offer the #1 Reason to Vote Brexit: Goldman Sachs, JPM, IMF Seek Remain.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I would rely upon voter anger. I think that the average English citizen has had it with immigration. Ha London has am Islamic mayor. What could possibly go wrong?
That is the same reason that Trump will be the US president in November. Forced immigration and social benefits for those immigrants over the native population is going to turn the tide.
Illegal immigration is a huge problem in this country. It has nothing to do with the EU. The government tolerates it because an excess of labour drives down wages costs.
BJ and co are conning and manipulating you.
Brexit and Trump will need decisive victories to win. Anything borderline will be manipulated by those currently in power into wins for Remain and Hillary.
A taste fo Britain in the US:
Imam Speaking in Orlando Said Gays Must Be Killed Out of ‘Compassion’
https://pjmedia.com/homeland-security/2016/06/12/orlando-night-club-attack-by-known-wolf-terrorist-previously-investigated-by-fbi/
Greetings Mish & readers from the greater London area where I arrived yesterday. I am currently staying in Kilburn Park before heading uptown to stay at my cousin’s place as soon as we get a room ready. My cousin is English and optimistic for Brexit. However, I took a walk around Kilburn this morning (in the rain) and everyone I spoke to or heard talking – passers by, shop clerks, station attendants, etc – had an accent but NOT an English one. Most people around here are obviously from somewhere else, many are citizens and, I suspect, will vote for Bremain. If not for foreign-born citizens, Brexit would be a shoo-in.
Bingo – they wish to destroy the British culture – sold down the river by the elites inside.
Tim – destroy the British culture, as well as the French, German, Italian cultures, etc. The elites do not want culture. It’s easier to dismantle countries and to instigate their policies and plans when you have a country divided by many different ethnic groups. When you don’t have a singular voting block, you can pretty much do whatever you want.
The UN Special Representative for Migration, Peter Sutherland, said:
“The EU should “do its best to undermine” the “homogeneity” of its member states, the UN’s special representative for migration has said.
Peter Sutherland told peers the future prosperity of many EU states depended on them becoming multicultural.”
http://www.amren.com/news/2012/06/eu-should-undermine-national-homogeneity-says-un-migration-chief/
Before you say, “Well, who cares about this Peter Sutherland guy,” consider that he was the Attorney-General of Ireland (wanted the bondholders bailed out), Chairman of Allied Irish Banks, Chairman of Goldman Sachs International, Director of the Royal Bank of Scotland, member of Bilderberg, Trilateral Commission, Chairman of British Petroleum. He is considered to be the father of globalization, was the Director General of GATT (now World Trade Organization).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Sutherland
This guy has held some pretty high positions, and now the elite have put him into a position where he advocates for “undermining the homogeneity” of Europe. It’s as if he’s the go-to person when the elite want things done.
We want globalization – get Peter Sutherland – check.
We want multiculturalism – get Peter Sutherland – check.
It’s almost as if you should follow the Peter Sutherland bouncing ball whenever you want to know what the elite have planned next. Follow the money AND follow Peter Sutherland.
wootendw – that’s why this will be the last chance for UK-born citizens to take back control of their own country. The more foreigners who come, the harder it will be to exit. Last chance.
The stigma of xenophobia may prevent 13% undecideds from declaring Brexit.
Jack – not after the mass shooting in Florida last night.
The negative motivation gets more people to the polls than positive motivation.
Brexit will win.
Romney would have won in 2012 if he had painted Obama with a negative brush.
And Bernie Sanders probably could have beaten Hillary Clinton if he had really gone after her, but he chose not to. He should have hammered her on her emails, the Clinton Foundation, but he didn’t.
And if the dog hadn’t stopped to take a pee he would’ve caught the rabbit too.
Poll the vote counters not the voters.
See how it all shakes out.
I would think a loss would be the end of DC but we”ll see. Song Remains the Same: War keeps expanding, violence at home exploding, “I can’t give it away on 7th Avenue.”
Intersting battle between the New York Times and the entire Planet brewing would appear.
Now it’s a 19 pt. lead? ha. This gets funnier as the story matures.
I bet the IMF folks know which side will win.
Coming down the home stretch they may tell you the “leaves” are ahead by 3 lengths.
I still say the “remains” for the win at the wire by a nose in a photo finish. 🙂
Brexit will not happen. Period.
If the vote is not rigged to keep them in, the government won’t let it happen.
Voting doesn’t matter anymore.
I’d love to see it happen, but it won’t.
The vote does not matter because they will never let leaving happen. This is Greece redux again
I don’t know if Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s readers are representative of the whole UK, but the straw-poll part way down this article (500k vote sample) suggests 72% are preparing to vote LEAVE: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/12/brexit-vote-is-about-the-supremacy-of-parliament-and-nothing-els/
What Paul Mason and political commentators like him fails to understand is that pit villages (etc) are the most conservative places in the country – more than any pretty little village in the Cotswolds – and these people have been let down by everyone.
They fight hard to resist change in Wath, Maltby, Hatfield and Elsecar and no amount of patriarchal patronising from leftist fantasists is going to change that.