With all eyes on Brexit, let’s not lose track Spanish elections on June 26.
Center-right Popular Party (PP) candidate and EU puppet, Mariano Rajoy might go down in flames in another election too close to call.
The December 2015 election ended in a deadlock with no coalition able to form a majority.
On Monday, in televised debates, socialist (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez ruled out an alliance with Rajoy.
If Sánchez sticks to that pledge there are only two possible outcomes: another hung election or an alliance of PSOE with Unidos Podemos (United We Can).
The Financial Times reports Spanish Party Leaders’ TV Debate Offers Familiar Dilemma.
Spain’s election campaign kicked into a higher gear on Monday night as the first, and only, television debate between party leaders saw tetchy but familiar exchanges over economic policy, corruption and coalition strategies.
The two-hour discussion saw Mariano Rajoy, the acting prime minister, come under sustained attack from his three main rivals. The leader of the centre-right Popular party was sharply criticised for his handling of recent corruption scandals in his party and for Spain’s unemployment problem, but the attack lines were mostly well-rehearsed — as were Mr Rajoy’s replies.
Polls suggest that the Spanish electorate will once again break four ways in the election. According to a survey by Metroscopia, published in El País on Sunday, the PP is on course to win 28.9 per cent of the vote, with the Socialists taking 20.8 per cent and Ciudadanos 15.9 per cent. Podemos, which is running with the United Left party on a new list called Unidos Podemos (United We Can), is predicted to push the Socialists from second place and win as much as 25.4 per cent.
Mr Iglesias, who will need the support of the Socialists to become prime minister, urged Mr Sánchez to throw in his party’s lot with Unidos Podemos. “There are only two options: the PP or a progressive government,” he said.
The Socialist leader refused to commit himself to a deal with Podemos but ruled out an alliance with the PP.
Albert Rivera, the leader of Ciudadanos, sought to land a series of blows against Podemos — accusing the anti-establishment party of planning to take Spain out of the EU — and against Mr Rajoy’s economic record. “An unemployment rate of 20 per cent is nothing to be proud of,” he said.
December 2015 Election Results vs. Current Projections
The above charts from El Pais.
Those are the latest projections I can find. They are before the Monday’s television debate.
To form a majority 176 seats are needed. PSOE + Unidos Podemos has approximately 170. It will not take much to knock Rajoy out of this.
If the debate swings things in a net +6 manner to Unidos Podemos (United We Can) + PSOE, it’s likely they will form an alliance, ending the regime of Rajoy.
For further discussion, please see Look Out EU – Eurosceptic “United We Can” Party Surging in Spain.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock