Four new Brexit polls were released on June 13. Every one of them broke in favor of Leave, as did the two polls immediately prior.
One more poll came in Tuesday afternoon (Evening in London). It was a telephone poll that shows Remain in the lead by one percentage point.
That poll breaks the string of six straight polls for Leave, but it also shows a huge swing towards Brexit from the last poll.
It’s do or die for Remain.
June Brexit Polls
Polling Movement Since September 2015
Above charts based on the Financial Times Brexit Poll Tracker. Second chart not reflective of ComRes.
Matt Singh Still Doesn’t Get It
Matt Singh at Number Cruncher Politics defends his case.
We haven’t heard recently from the other two experienced phone pollsters, Ipsos MORI (expected in the Evening Standard on Tuesday or Wednesday) and ComRes, who will have at least one more poll before next the 23rd of June. ORB’s phone poll still showed a 5 point Remain lead, compared to a 10 point Leave lead in its phone poll, but I would put more weight on ICM.
So it looks as though the phone-online gap has been substantially reduced at the same time as both methods showing a swing towards Leave.
In other words, the facts have changed, so I’ve changed my mind. Some will say that the facts had already changed and this move is the model playing catch-up. The problem with that view is that simply taking the last n polls (as many polls-of-polls do) and ignoring the persistent modal difference is that you tend to get an awful lot of artificial volatility.
If ComRes and Ipsos MORI suggest that a significant phone-online gap remains, the outcome will be very different than if they too suggest it has disappeared.
The hardest time to measure public opinion is when it’s moving, and it has clearly moved. So it may take a couple of days to unpick the latest poll movements, but the pattern is clear, even if uncertainty remains around the level.
Singh Playing Catch-Up
Singh is forever playing catch-up just as Nate Silver did in the US with Donald Trump. Regardless of the outcome, Singh depends too much on history vs. recent swings in attitudes.
“ORB’s phone poll still showed a 5 point Remain lead, compared to a 10 point Leave lead in its phone poll,” stated Singh.
I believe the second “phone” in the above sentence is supposed to say “online”. But I see three ORB polls, none with a 5 point lead for Remain. Regardless, it appears as if Singh is going all the way back to June 5, now horribly out of date, and using a poll with a sample size of a mere 800.
Singh says too much emphasis on recent polls introduces volatility.
I suggest one has to look at trends. If it was just one random pollster jumping all over the place, his argument would make more sense. In the context of a clear trend shift, going back too far is a huge mistake in the name of volatility suppression.
News Factor
- On June 13, The Sun, UK’s largest newspaper, says We urge our readers to beLEAVE in Britain and vote to quit the EU on June 23. “If we stay, Britain will be engulfed in a few short years by this relentlessly expanding German dominated federal state. For all David Cameron’s witless assurances, our powers and values WILL be further eroded.“
- On June 12, 50 Killed in Worst Mass Shooting in US History; Another Attack on LGBT Community Planned. This can easily play into the hands of Leave.
- On June 13, Isis Claims Responsibility for Murder of Paris Policeman. This can also heighten fear of terrorist immigration.
- Soccer Ongoing: “France, which has extended the state of emergency until the end of July, has deployed more than 100,000 police officers, soldiers and private guards to ensure the security of fans who have travelled to watch Euro 2016.”
- On June 14, Cameron Caves In Again (This Time on Turkey): Another Cameron Lie
It’s pretty clear that UK voters have seen through the ridiculous fear-mongering of the remain crowd. The debates seem to have helped Leave.
None of the above news items have been fully integrated into polls. Point number five is not reflected in any poll.
Recent news heavily plays into Leave’s hands. This is at worst a toss-up for Leave.
Cameron’s lies are reason enough to vote Leave, but in case you need another reason, please consider #1 Reason to Vote Brexit: Goldman Sachs, JPM, IMF Seek Remain.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Now – what to invest in…
Think Y2K and the impact of the mmddyy calendar in most computer programs of the day. In other words, nothing will happen if they leave but England will be a sorry mess along with the rest of the EU if they stay and if the EU bureaucracy continues to conquer Europe. If they stay they are stupid and deserve whatever is forced repeatedly and frequently up their British asses. No sympathy and lots of ridicule from me if they don’t leave.
I spoke with three guys in a biker bar outside London today. All planned to vote for Brexit. One said there were too many immigrants, another said there weren’t enough immigrants of the right kind due to EU rules, and the third said he was fed up with politicians lying all the time. Despite his leather jacket, one seemed well informed and spoke good English.
Just an anecdote.
The man who gained notoriety in the 2008 elections as “Joe the Plumber” recently endorsed Donald Trump… for the same reasons as your London bikers are voting brexit.
Joe Wurzelbacher is “Joe the plumber”‘s real name. He endorsed Trump for President
When she immigrated to the US from her native Scotland, Trump’s mother was a confirmed vote for “leave”.
There’s a whopping bill coming due for German austerity forced on Southern Europe. Britain is wise to avoid paying the tab. Rough justice will be served if Germany foots the whole bill.
That is an excellent Point
I smell total desparation of a failed government.
— Having Obama make really dumb threats about US/UK trade didn’t work.
— Predicting economic armageddon moved the polls in the wrong direction.
— So now the lying cowards are trying to divide Southern Europe debtors against the UK/Germany savers
Pitting European against European should keep the Europeans “unified”, don’t you think?
Merkel dug their own grave, now she’s going to expect everybody but herself to lie in it.
Merkel / Obama / Cameron / Hollande … all the G7 “leaders” are the same.
The EU could have Xeroxed the US Constitution. But no, they let bureaucrats write their own ticket.
… as you could expect. after all, it is all about “them”.
We were having lunch with friends yesterday and discussed Brexit.
Three of us have voted to leave and only one has voted to remain.
I mainly voted to leave because of sovereignty issues such as the probable implementation of EU federal taxes and the alignment of business taxes and the negotiation of the transatlantic trade agreement.
Most of us are fed up of the scare tactics by both sides but mainly the over the top scare tactics by the remain camp.
“Most of us are fed up of the scare tactics by both sides but mainly the over the top scare tactics by the remain camp.”
Exactly! If the only reason to remain is due to the fears that have been tossed around, then you should vote leave.
Worth noting the lack of transparency in the voting process. All regional vote tally’s will be announced from central headquarters not in their respective regions. The smell of vote rigging permeates across the nation.
The News Factors capture only some of the events and perhaps not the main ones like Osborne’s nonsensical post-Brexit budget threats, Tusk’s ridiculous claim about Brexit portending the end of western political civilization (whatever that is, perhaps just Mr Tusk’s euro-pension) and admissions from various Remain spokespeople that immigration cannot be controlled within the EU. The Orlando shootings evoke much sympathy but I do not see any connection being made in the UK with the Brexit debate: mass shootings in the US are commonplace events and a possible terror connection nothwithstanding, it is not taken at present as having lessons for the UK.
Switzerland seals the annulment and return of its ’92 application to negotiate entry to EU, not without some difficulty either:
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.blick.ch/news/politik/schweiz-zieht-eu-beitrittsgesuch-zurueck-schwexit-besiegelt-id5151603.html
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Plz leave
We would like to see you suffer.
With your overpriced crap no eu citizen wil bye British expensive crap
Go fight countrys and we can ship refugees sraight toward to you.
Bye bye britain
Nobody going to buy your expensive crap and support your wars no more.