Inquiring minds are investigating more details in the highly regarded Ipos MORI Telephone Poll regarding Brexit.
A series of charts from the survey show remain is in deep serious trouble.
Voting Intentions
This is the key chart in favor of Brexit. Nearly all of the refused to answer and genuinely undecided voters need to vote Remain for Brexit to lose unless voters change their minds.
20 Percent Still Open To Change Their Minds
That chart is likely the best hope for Remain. 20% of voters are still open to a vote change. However, undecided have been breaking heavily towards Brexit. Why should that trend change now?
Public View
Betting odds do not reflect the opinions of bookies as is widely tossed about in mainstream media. Rather, betting odds reflect the opinions of those betting. If bookies balance their books, they really do not care who wins.
Life After Referendum
Despite a massive fear campaign culminating with Chancellor George Osborne promising tax hikes on top of a recession if Brexit won, voters see through the lies.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph and I are on the same page regarding “Economic Vandalism” threats by Osborne.
For details, please see Brexit Debate Focus Shifts to Chickens, Dead Cats, Taxes.
Still Undecided? Don’t Be: #1 Reason to Vote Brexit: Goldman Sachs, JPM, IMF Seek Remain
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Wonder if Jo Cox will be used as a martyr symbol for the “cause.”
Live Free or Die.
Most likely. Let’s see what they do about Trump.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics
Michael Graub
Are the worlds markets completely twisted and broken? We see our stock market go from a negative 100 to a positive 100 and gold fall from 1315 to 1280 all seemingly on the news of a British MP having been murdered and an alleged “Britain First” yelled out by the murderer. Brexit campaigns are suspended.
If our economy is THIS fragile, we must truly be doomed.
“The economy” and asset markets decoupled a long time ago. It’s a necessary feature of late stage progressivism, since progressivism relies on using the state and legal apparatus to distribute an economy’s spoils to those most willing to toe the party line, rather than those best able and willing to efficiently produce and perform anything viable and useful.
Substitute governmentalism for progressivism and you’ll be right.
governmentalism
n
(Government, Politics & Diplomacy) a philosophy that promotes the extension of government activity
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/governmentalism
I wonder if the shooting of a political figure behind the Remain campaign might impact the vote results? Could this drum up sympathy for Leave?
Sorry, I meant to ask whether this would drum up sympathy for Remain?
Two words: “Reichstag fire.”
Michael Surkan – it depends on who you have sympathy for. Of course everyone is going to have sympathy with the political figure, but some undecideds might have some sympathy towards the fellow who killed her as well. Their thinking might be: if the Remains hadn’t lied and threatened so much, pushed so hard, he probably wouldn’t have done it – or the left is absolutely ruining Britain, so much so that I hardly recognize my country anymore, and so I can see why he might have “flipped out”, as someone was bound to.
It could go either way.
Juncker said that? Wow.
Leave should be so easy… are people that accustomed to being herded like animals?
Yup. Here and there and (almost) everywhere. And the few places where they’re not, are pretty much all labeled “terrorist” or “failed” states. Something even those who ought to know better, fall for every time.
That’s how successful the past century and a half’s pervasive publicly funded indoctrination has been.
I understand that the pro-remain PM who was shot has died. So now it’s an assassination. Watch the “remains” use it to build the sympathy vote. They’ll make a martyr out of the PM. My guess is that it’ll work too. Humans vote with their emotions. This case will be no different.
I continue to contend that even if the “leaves” win the vote that in one way or another their votes and their desires will be thwarted.
Power settles everything.
I have read that as well. Parliament doesn’t have to follow the referendum; it can postpone the Brexit indefinitely by having continual committees compile reports on what to do and how to do it, which they then argue about until the cows come home.
Sharon – “…which they then argue about until” some of them start getting killed, just like today. People will only stand for so much, and you can tell that they have now had enough. Continue on with your committees if you want, but at your own peril.
@Sharon — legally, Parliament might try to drag their feet. But technically, they are all up for election in the next few years.
Sticking your middle finger up at your boss is 100% legal (in the US, it is protected free speech) — that doesn’t mean you wont regret it later.
What is the likelihood that the EU make life really difficult for Britain if it leaves? Could the EU purposefully be punitive in trade deals and so on just to set and example and keep the remaining member states in line?
The UK runs a trade deficit with Europe. It would hurt Europe more.
Do you really think that the Mercedes’ Audi’s etc would let that happen?
Who knows… If the German government is more scared about losing other members states than keeping business with Britain then they might go for the punitive measures.
Michael Surkan – I think that once Britain votes to leave, others will follow right behind them. Go ahead, Germany, punish away!
@Surkin – “What is the likelihood that the EU make life really difficult for Britain if it leaves?”
Zero chance. Trade is too important, for both the continent and for UK. Neither side can afford to cut things off.
The EU is particularly vulnerable, because once the UK leaves a lot of other countries are going to follow (assuming they don’t leave first — UK might vote to leave, and some other country executes the leave first). Mish has mentioned Spain and Netherlands. Austria narrowly avoided a departure last month. Norway is “half in” (EU, but no Euro like the UK). The Netherlands does not have popular support for the EU. Merkel keeps giving German citizens reasons not to trust her or Brussels. Greece might leave at any moment.
If Mario Draghi continues his assault against German banks (and German savers), Merkel will be thrown out and Germany will leave the EU.
If the EU bureaucracy is really really stupid — they might try to penalize England… but doing so would only encourage others to leave. England will have plenty of non EU countries to trade with.
Whatever bankrupt group of nobodies remains in the EU won’t be able to pay for UK goods under any conditions, so who cares?
Yes — the lawyers will argue about minutia in whichever Treaty (none of which are adhered to now). But your trade question is about how things will go in the real world, not at EU headquarters.
Time for the usual voter fraud.
IOW, don’t be short going into the vote.
If “Stay”, expect a sharp rally.
I though the vote got called off.
“You can’t trade a rigged casino” (look at the volume on the NYSE) so who in their right mind would trade a rigged election?
This is not only not news but news to be avoided.
I don’t think the TPTB elite will have to play the “voter fraud” card with the assassination of the pro-remain liberal PM who promoted lax immigration policies for indigent foreigners and other leftist causes. My opinion is that the propoganda machine will use the death of the ‘young, courageous, compassionate rising star, mother and wife’ for their political advantage. Never let a good crisis go to waste.
I feel very sorry for this British PM and her family. It is a tragedy for sure. But her death will be used by the unscrupulous political propogandists to turn the Brexit vote around in favor of the ‘remains’. Emotion is a very powerful force. It has convicted innocent men and set guilty men free. Never underestimate the power of human emotion to distort seemingly clear and unambiguous issues.
LFOldTimer – and it could just as easily go the other way, using the tragedy to reinforce the fact that the politicians have finally pushed a quiet, decent man to the breaking point. “See what all of your agenda pushing has done?”
A lot of people will of course sympathize with the politician, but they will understand the frustration of the man who did this and sympathize with him as well.
The Leave people want their country back.
I disagree with you. The assassination will only help the cause of the ‘remains’. The pro-remains will make a martyr out of her. And it will surely swing the vote in their favor, especially if the vote is delayed and the propagandists have more time to capitalize on the tragedy.
Very few will sympathize with a man who murdered a very nice looking rising star, wife and mother. Sorry, I feel you are completely wrong on this one.
I don’t know how true it is – but it’s being reported the assassin is “mentally ill”, whatever that means.
There are similarities with Gabby Giffords, the congresswoman who was shot in the head a few years back by a mentally ill man. Of course this man is mentally ill. No one in their right mind would ever go out and kill someone. They’re saying this man was a loner, did gardening work for his neighbours. Maybe he’s being squeezed, maybe he’s got nothing left.
When people are pushed, when governments push agendas that are against the will of the people, these are the people who step forward, loners, fringe people. There are no doubt many more like him out there.
I don’t particularly care if she was a “very nice looking rising star”. Rising star to whom? Not to the majority. That you would use the words “rising star” speaks volumes about what side of the debate you are on. Nice looking? Who cares. It should just matter that she was a fellow human being.
People already decided on voting Leave will continue to vote Leave. If Clinton were shot while giving a speech in favor of the secretive trade treaties, people wouldn’t suddenly feel sorry for her and jump over to supporting them, would they? They can feel sorry for her while still disagreeing with her.
People are worried about their safety and security. They are obviously saying that they feel they are losing their country, that they have no voice, they do not feel safe and secure.
@LFoldtimer — there are lots of similarities with the shop keeper in Algiers who lit himself on fire after the President/King of Algeria handed down more onerous taxes / regulations.
People had had enough of the bullsh!t. It wasn’t that this guy lit himself on fire, and no one could point to a specific law or tax that “broke the camels back” so to speak. It didn’t matter, the government was overthrown.
Same happened in Egypt after rigged elections… Mubarak went from untouchable dictator to pariah in minutes.
The EU political class has caused way too much damage and assumed powers they simply were never supposed to get. That doesn’t make the assassination of a Parliament member OK, it just means the corrupt politicians have pushed people way too far.
If anything, the death of one of their own is going to make the insubordinate members of Parliament think twice about ignoring voters. One dead Parliament member is a tragedy, a lot of dead politicians is a revolution.
I don’t see how the death of a crooked politician is going to achieve martyr status; and hundreds of taxpayers who have lost their jobs are already filling the news
“When it becomes really serious, do you steal the election?”
Why, yes, of course you do.
The only part of it that you should find surprising is theat is mustn’t even get “really serious” at all before the subterfuge and misdirection is enacted. My lord! Do American people actually believe that James Bond is real? Some secret agent 007 is going to make sure the poor old Brits get their votes counted correctly? It’s laughable, yet all so tragic at the same time.
The UK remains in the EU. No more story to tell. I found it a tad more suspenseful to see David Beckham leave for the US and his playing career was more or less already over. Still, you couldn’t believe he’d left.
I say they Leave, just like Beckham. Beckham wanted Hollywood, but the UK just wants their own country. (Beckham was over-rated, but a good ambassador; no Messi)
The MarketWatch headline article (at 5:30 EDT) on Brexit:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-brits-should-vote-to-leave-the-eu-2016-06-17