The highly regarded pollster Ipsos MORI shows Leave ahead of Remain for the first time ever in its Brexit phone polls.

The poll shows no one believes the fearmongering campaign by Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne.

In other Brexit news, a senior MP for Labour just switched sides to Leave.

Without a doubt this set of news puts Leave firmly in the lead. The odds will be interesting to watch from here on out.

Ipos Mori Phone Poll

MORI Phone Poll

The Evening Standard reports ‘Most Brits DO want to leave,’ with just a week until EU referendum vote.

The campaign to quit the European Union has surged into a six-point lead with exactly a week to go, a sensational Ipsos MORI poll reveals today.

In a dramatic turnaround since May, some 53 per cent now want to leave and 47 per cent want to stay, excluding don’t knows.

It is the first time since David Cameron pledged the referendum in January 2013 that Vote Leave have come out ahead in the respected monthly Ipsos MORI telephone survey, which is exclusive to the Evening Standard.

The survey reveals massive distrust of claims made by politicians on both sides, but especially the predictions of doom after a Brexit made by Mr Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne, dubbed Project Fear by critics.

Key Findings

  • Only 17 per cent of people believe the Chancellor’s flagship claim that UK households will lose £4,300 and be permanently poorer after a Brexit, despite the analysis carrying the full weight of the Treasury. Some 70 per cent think it is a falsehood.
  • Almost half believe Boris Johnson is telling the truth when he says that Britain sends £350 million a week to the EU, even though it has been criticised as misleading by independent experts. The claim is believed by 47 per cent and disbelieved by 39 per cent.
  • More people think they will be better off in five years outside the EU than inside, despite Government warnings of lost jobs and lower incomes if Britain leaves.
  • Immigration is now the most critical issue, cited as very important to their vote by 33 per cent, up five points in a month, including just over half of leave supporters.
  • The economy has fallen to second place in the league table of important issues, down five points to 28 per cent.
  • A fifth of people say they might change their mind – which means the outcome is impossible to predict.

Make Up Your Mind

The only conceivable comforting factor for Remain is the very high percentage of people who might change their mind. Then again, are those primarily Remain or Leave leaners who feel that way?

I have a musical tribute that might help.

Lovin Spoonful

That is precisely the message that needs to be sent to the EU nannycrats in Brussels, Prime Minister David Cameron, and Chancellor George Osborne.

Senior Labour MP Wants Out

The Sun reports Cryer for Freedom.

A SENIOR member of Jeremy Corbyn’s frontbench team has become the first to break ranks and back Brexit.

Lefty John Cryer risks the sack from the Shadow Cabinet after he declared: “The EU is not Europe but a political construct imposed on many countries.”

As chairman of the powerful Parliamentary Labour Party group of MPs, Mr Cryer’s comments are set to spark uproar amongst his pro-EU colleagues.

Last week he was warned his job was under threat if he backed Leave, but he yesterday he became the tenth Labour MP to do so.

The lifelong lefty and MP for Leyton, East London describes himself as “a critic of the European Union because it is anti-democratic.”

John Cryer MP – Explains Out

In a local town directory John Cryer MP Explains Out.

The Prime Minister hopes he can repeat Harold Wilson’s sleight of hand of 1975. Wilson claimed to have extracted major concessions from what was then the Common Market. David Cameron has achieved very little in his negotiations with Brussels. The EU will continue as the same centralised monolith that it has always been. Eurozone states, who are really under the cosh of the Euro-sadists, are now being told that they will lose control over their own budgets; they have already, of course, lost control of their currency by joining the Euro in the first place. Brussels is also indicating that there should be more “harmonising” of taxation.

Real power in the EU does not rest with the European Parliament but with the Commission and the Council of Ministers. Both are secretive and unaccountable.

The EU is not a defence against the rise of the far right; enforced integration is actively fostering nationalism. Regional funds, which have been used to help poorer areas, are being drained into the Euro to help prop it up (as predicted by the Treasury as early as 1975).The EU is not Europe but a political construct imposed on many countries. It is undermining democratic governments, weakening national boundaries and handing power to the markets and the corporate world.

There’s only one hope left for Remain.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock