Today was one of the strangest market days I have seen in a while. This morning, the odd combination of gold, the dollar, and US treasuries were soaring. Equities were down pretty hard.
Supposedly this was attributed to Brexit fears. Not one, but two new polls showed Brexit in the lead.
Then in a tragic incident, Jo Cox, a Labour candidate for Remain, was shot and stabbed to death. The Markets reversed sharply on the news.
Let’s take a look at the reversals followed by a recap of the tragic incident.
30-Year Bond Yield
Gold
US Dollar
S&P 500 Index
Fatal Shooting of British MP Jo Cox Leaves UK in Shock
The timing of these reversals coincides with this Financial Times report: Fatal Shooting of British MP Jo Cox Leaves UK in Shock.
Jo Cox, aged 41, a supporter of the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU, was shot and stabbed several times in her constituency town of Birstall, near Leeds in northern England, on Thursday lunchtime outside a local library where she had been meeting residents.
Her killing was condemned by politicians stunned by the violence. Both the Remain and Leave sides immediately suspended campaigning. Prime Minister David Cameron cancelled an appearance at a Remain rally in Gibraltar, saying: “It’s right that we are suspending campaigning activity in this referendum and everyone’s thoughts will be with Jo’s family and her constituents at this terrible time.”
Local media said witnesses reported that the man shouted “Britain first” during the attack, but that was unconfirmed. One witness, café owner Clarke Rothwell, later told the BBC that the attacker had shouted “Britain first” or “put Britain first”.
Former London mayor Boris Johnson, a leader of the Leave campaign, called off a battle bus tour for the Leave campaign after hearing of Ms Cox’s shooting, which he said was “absolutely horrific”.
Campaigns Suspended, Not the Vote
That alleged shouting of “Britain First” is not confirmed. And it appears the markets reacted as if the Brexit vote was suspended, as opposed to campaigns.
But once rallies like these start, they tend to last all day.
Vote Effect
Did the attacker really shout “Britain First”? That is still in question.
Regardless, it is uncertain how this affects the Brexit vote. I have seen comments go both ways.
My instinct is that this incident, not history, could conceivably save Remain. Otherwise agnostic voters may vote out of solidarity.
It’s also possible the incident saps the energy from Remain, or voter turnout in general becomes disgusted by the whole process.
Finally, it’s possible that Remain tries to capitalize on this, and the attempt backfires.
So, we really do not know. Only polls taken after this incident will be reliable now.
Final Thoughts
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/us-navy-discussing-plans-microchip-every-american-track-movements-mark-beast/
Jo Cox was hell bent on enslaving a free people. She got there.
Terrible news about the death but, never waste a crisis. Brexit is winning so ‘Campaign goes into limbo for a second day,’ according to a recent headline. Will England vote to remain in bondage out of sympathy? If so, I wish that nothing but the most stupid, cost encumbering, and toxic EU rules permeate them forever, compounded annually.
Honestly imo the REMAIN Pols murdered her.
That’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it!
TRUTH TO POWER.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtDKfd-pEGw
Brexit: Vote Remain Exploits Jo Cox Murder | Paul Joseph Watson and Stefan Molyneux (Remain started spreading lies the minute the attack happened – listen and learn.)
The British do not want martyrs to EU in their country, nor alive, nor being killed there.
Finish the job, close the chapter, and vote out.
Brexit.
Jo was probably killed by the CIA so they could blame it on #Brexiters….
Touche!
http://www.idropnews.com/2016/06/14/theres-a-new-robot-that-can-intentionally-hurt-humans/
So the suggestion is a false flag? To save the EURO?
It is a rather strange event.
Reminds me of the timing of US mass shootings sometimes.
Pretty convenient timing for the REMAIN crew. They insiders who like the remain effort are the type of sociopath that would do this sort of thing. And finally they are desperate given the polls…………
Hard to see this as a “lone gunman”
Yeah, especially when he’s certified mentally ill, has lived with his mom for over 40 years in the same house, has no history of violence, neighbors say he was friendly, never spoke about politics and nothing about the EU… and had a gun in a country that bans all handguns (almost impossible to get in the UK… a 50 year old mentally ill mama’s boy… sure)!
Didn’t happen.
Sounds like here in Canada where we’ve never had a “terrorist attack” (not one) until a week before our conservative government (set packing last fall) was set to pass our very own version of the Patriot Act… when a lone gunman killed an unarmed guard and rushed our Parliament building… he was of course killed and forgotten.
Remember the ReMaine.
Things that make you go hmmmmm……..
“Pretty convenient timing for the REMAIN crew…no history of violence, neighbors say he was friendly, never spoke about politics and nothing about the EU… and had a gun in a country that bans all handguns (almost impossible to get in the UK… a 50 year old mentally ill mama’s boy… sure)!
Didn’t happen.”
Everyone on any national political stage is a sociopath. Others simply don’t get that far.
Once people get trapped into the belief that the choice is between “We the Good Guys” and “Them the Bad Guys.” Any actual “Good Guys” are sharp elbowed, plotted against and stamped on long before anyone ever hear of them.
Always resulting in both sides consisting of nothing but bad guys. Playing a never ending game of baddest guy wins. Second baddest finishes runner up. And the public finishes duped. Again.
Quite a coincidence, eh? The “leaves” were pulling away in the polls and suddenly a very attractive pro-remain female PM who was a rising star in Brit and EU politics – and a wife and devoted mother – is assassinated by an angry male who is said to be a pro-leave. Note that I am not saying it’s a conspiracy. Only a coincidence.
However, IMO, this pushes the “remain” vote over the top. And the longer it’s allowed to settle in with the Brits – the higher the “remain” vote goes. I believe the vote will, in fact, be delayed – out of respect to the late PM. Wait for it.
As from the beginning – I believe the “remains” in the end take home the trophy. And I do not base my opinion on polls. Only on common sense. And I promise….right or wrong……I will not change my position.
OldTimer – I’ve been reading your posts for awhile, and you’ve been calling for Remain the whole time. Of course you won’t change your position; this is what you want.
You’re 100% wrong regarding my preference on Brexit, backwards.
I would do somersaults of joy if the People got a victory for once anywhere in the world. If England restored it’s sovereignty I’d be ecstatic.
But I’m a pragmatist and try to ignore the noize when I form opinions.
Common sense rules.
Duh, you probably don’t even live in England.
There you go! What did I tell ya?
No, I don’t live in England. Therefore, I have the benefit of being objective in forming my opinions on Brexit and the pending outcome.
Those who live in England will be forced to eat whatever cooking is served to them. So how could anyone living in the belly of the beast possibly be objective?
Thank God I live across the pond, albeit it’s getting just as bad in my neck of the woods.
Winston – that is a fantastic video. Everybody should listen to this. If this is true, then the newspapers are liars. Wow!
Vote Leave. You really have no choice.
If the gunman (how did he get a gun in England?) was attacking someone else, but she just got in the way when she tried to help, then this could have nothing to do with Brexit at all.
The gunman’s neighbours said he was not political and never spoke of the EU or Brexit.
And apparently he didn’t even say “Britain First”, and yet the newspapers are saying he did. The eyewitnesses are saying he DID NOT say this.
If I want a more objective slant on US news, I read British news. So it would figure that to get a more objective slant of on British news, read US news.
Sorry Winston, I didn’t see your post of this clip already.
I did not hear about the attack while watching markets today. I did see an Elliott wave pattern (flat) developing that forecast a sharp counter trend rally. With the West in a bear market, such attacks (including the recent one in Orlando) become probable from a socionomics perspective. Given the severity of attacks happening early in the bear market, the economy will face a major depression. People are in a negative mood, which then manifests itself in all aspects of life.
I can’t even begin to comprehend a connection and even if I could I’m not sure I want to know.
The only thing I feel I know is folks who have traded “long recovery” have been obliterated even though nominally “everything is awesome.”
So they may have to postpone the vote because of the shooting. How fortuitous.
This is what is coming in our future when the Feds trash the 2nd Amendment.
You’re right. They will have to use knives for mass murders then. Or maybe explosives.
Yup, Michael Moore says it is time to do away with the Second Amendment. I know, it is shocking that a socialist/communist would suggest that. Only Big Government needs guns!
+1000
I remember when Michael Moore made that hack job of a movie (which one?) about gun control. He himself admitted that there were more guns per capita in the Canadian city across the lake from Detroit than in Detroit — yet Detroit had 10x as many murders and even higher multiples of gun violence. That was Moore’s own movie, admitting that Detroit already had fewer guns but more gun violence.
Paris, France — home to Charlie Hebedo and the more recent shootings — has the toughest gun laws in Europe.
England has very tough gun laws — doesn’t seem to have stopped today’s tragedy. Decades of martial law in Northern Ireland didn’t stop guns or killing.
Big government fascists want gun control to cement their own power, no other reason. Shame on the cowards for using crisis to grab more for themselves
It doesn’t matter who votes. It only matters who counts the votes.
Yes Sir!
I’ve quoted the same line here several times.
But with the assassination of an innocent and attractive pro-remain PM I don’t think a fraudulent vote count will be necessary. The propaganda machine is already hard at work to regain the competitive advantage. My guess is that the ‘remains’ will have it in the bag by the 23rd if the vote goes on schedule. If the vote is delayed the “remain” vote will grow only larger.
Don’t ever underestimate the power of propaganda on the human emotions.
Angry pro-leave male murders young attractive rising star pro-remain female PM who is a devoted wife and mom. That should do it. If the “remains” can’t take home a win based on that story they must have morons running the campaign.
If Don Meredith was still alive and calling the play by play on Brexit he would be singing “Turn Out the Lights – The Party’s Over”.
My deepest sympathies to the deceased and her family. This tragedy supersedes political ideology.
OldTimer – you’ve been banking on the Remain side for a long time now. She was only a “rising star” to you because you’re on the Remain side.
Watch the video again. Close to 26,000 people have watched it so far. Twitter and Facebook will be going wild with this.
backwards, I’m a Cleveland fan but if I were to place a bet I’d lay my money on Golden State.
Same thing with politics. My opinion on future outcomes rarely coincides with my desired outcome.
Can’t you understand that?
If I were pro-remain I would simply state it. The truth is I’m pro-leave.
But whether you accept or reject what I say is meaningless to me.
Have it your way.
LF – I understand the tone in your posts and it cuts clear. Some people are just sensitive to acid wit, or don’t recognize it properly or its meaning. Not their fault either I suppose. Always encourages me to see people take the time to question, discuss and explain themselves in a simple and open way.
Elected officials are supposed to represent their constituents, not the interests of the political class. When parliament members threaten to ignore their bosses (the voters), they are — in every way shape and form — threatening treason.
That doesn’t make this killing right. It simply means Jo Cox is not a victim. She is part of a group that threatened to ignore a lawful referendum that expressed the voters wishes.
Media accounts are also ignoring the thousands of lives ruined by edicts from unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.
Why is one politicians life a tragedy, but thousands of voters don’t count? Anyone?
Lets see the media outlets dedicate equal time to all the UK citizens who’s livelihoods were wrecked by the EU. That would be honest and fair reporting
Regarding the strange market day, one of the intelligent things that Keynes said:
“The market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent.”
Keynes should know he was not very good at “trading”.
I live about a two hour drive from where this tragic event happened in England, just over the Pennines. What the world is perhaps not aware of is that Bradford does have an exceptionally high ethnic population. If a ‘Britain First’ call was made, then this may have been racially motivated and have nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit. A couple of other points – there was a suggestion on ZH that the guy may have had a history of mental illness. And it is NOT clear from media reports whether the MP intervened in a dispute between the gunman and another person, or was the primary target. Its too early to speculate as to the circumstances, but either way, the markets knee-jerk reaction reflect a linking with Brexit which is (as yet) wholly unjustified – but the markets do what they will without conscience. So I fear does the press. So I fear will the campaigns. Personally i cannot believe a false flag here, just a tragic day with perhaps even more tragic consequences.
I live about a two hour drive from where this tragic event happened in England, just over the Pennines. What the world is perhaps not aware of is that Bradford does have an exceptionally high ethnic population. If a ‘Britain First’ call was made, then this may have been racially motivated and have nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit. A couple of other points – there was a suggestion on ZH that the guy may have had a history of mental illness. And it is NOT clear from media reports whether the MP intervened in a dispute between the gunman and another person, or was the primary target. Its too early to speculate as to the circumstances, but either way, the markets knee-jerk reaction reflect a linking with Brexit s (as yet) wholly unjustified – but the markets do what they will without conscience. So I fear does the press. So I fear will the campaigns. Personally i cannot believe a false flag here, just a tragic day with perhaps even more tragic consequences.
Been a clear attempt to exploit it, a lot of push back though.
Of course it was the tragic assassination of Jo Cox that was the catalyst for the market reversal along with the simultaneous reversal in Brexit polling results. There is no conspiracy. Just the capability of computer programs to change the course of financial markets in seconds.
Tragic yes. Senseless no.
Who’s being naive Kay?
Hi Mish,
I have been following your blog for a few years & really enjoy reading your views.
While others have focused on the latter part of this post (BREXIT), I would appreciate if you could delve in to the possible reasons why gold, bonds & USD were ALL going higher before this tragic news broke (gold even broke above USD 1,300).
Thanks.
Dollar up because pound and Euro up
Gold up – likely because of perceived increase in default risk or other (and I hate to use the word) uncertainties.