19 Sunday Jun 2016
Posted | June 19, 2016 1:18:48 | Economics
The Financial Times Brexit Tracker, an aggregate of polls shows things are back at tossup. Two days ago, things stood 47-44 in favor of Leave.
Polling Movement
June Polls
The latest Survation Poll was taken on June 17 and 18 on behalf of the Mail.
It was a phone poll 1,004 UK adults on their views about the EU Referendum. Click on the link for a table of data.
Judging from the dates, impact from Jo Cox murder is highly likely.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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UK turmoil shows up markets as amoral and impotent
“Britain’s referendum on its European Union membership shows voters can still have the whip hand over amoral financial markets. Traders will trade on any scrap of information, even tragedy, as they did after the killing of a pro-EU British lawmaker on June 16. In contrast with the recent euro zone crisis, markets are more at the mercy of events than moulding them.”
http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2016/06/17/uk-turmoil-shows-up-markets-as-amoral-and-impotent/
People have probably not considered that the turmoil is a result of the campaign to leave. It will continue as long as the UK is still being ruled over by the Zone. However, once out the UK will stay out, and the debate will be over.
Software Bug ? Unable to vote Like. Go through the WordPress hoops and nothing. I am probably not the only one.
Yes I have given up on the Like voting also, it’s the worst thing about Mish’s new forum.
I have noticed some people just post a reply: “Like”
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Usually it works for me. When It does not, I think it is a problem of slow loading of all the comments, images and ads. A lot of sites are like that, including some news sites which are worse in that you cannot read anything for a few minutes until the last ad or image loads.
When “like” does not work, clicking “reload” on the browser fixes the problem when I am using a notebook computer. The reload goes faster because so much is already cached. Perhaps different with cell phone or tablet with more limited memory. Just a guess, but that is how you troubleshoot these things.
The polls will remain neck and neck so the final vote to “stay” will seem plausible to the masses. Who owns the people who own the polls.
This is the problem when everything becomes “to close to call.” Elections, sporting events, actual market liquidity as opposed to “notional” or “synthetic” monies…all of these institutions can be “gamed” in the sense that one is incapable of discerning only an emotional outcome instead of a tangible or “grounded in the reality” outcome.
This is the lie of statistical theory…namely anything can be made “real” provided the distribution is correct…but this is simply not how the physical world in fact exists. The snail only exists to be food for the bird? What about the smell? The shape? The size?
Clearly we’re missing a lot … if not everything … if all we see in the world is a proper distribution curve.
There is no better example than energy traders trading “depletion rates.” So called “real pro’s” missed that one by a mile (assuming a price support that was not there at all) because “in the future we would still run out of production no matter what.” This turned out not only to be false but also a case study in the creation of a false construct of reality…and “Only the Beginning” as the band Chicago famously opined.
FT has not been a credible source for years now. They are a reliable propaganda tool however.
The poll sample size is tiny.
It so tiny that it’s laughable and totally unbelievable.
The average person is very ignorant and easily influenced. They know little or nothing about the world around them and have reflexes like a scared animal. Politicians are counting on it. Shoot someone and change the vote. Put out false news reports and change the vote. The Internet and biased media make it easier than ever to lead people around. If something does not change more and more places like Venezuela will start appearing as the system breaks down and war breaks out.
I have noticed my liberal/progressive/socialist friends are purposely ignorant. If I put some facts before them that are counter to their opinions, they either ignore it or refuse to believe it (which is the same thing). If I point out to them that they seem to get annoyed by facts that don’t agree with their opinions, then they really get annoyed. I tell them they are welcome to send me any information from any political viewpoint, I want to consider all angles. What do they tell me? nothing. Not much confidence in their opinions, I guess. But as for changing their minds: not a chance.
Want to annoy a liberal? Next time you hear “The problem in the US is too many guns”, ask them what about cultural differences. If they still insist on the too many guns argument, point out that Russia has about one tenth the per capita gun ownership, but more than double the homicide rate of the US. Or Switzerland has a higher per capita gun ownership but a very low homicide rate. (unfortunately that may change with the muslim invasion).
Data here:
http://crimeresearch.org/2014/03/comparing-murder-rates-across-countries/
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This is somewhat old news, but the liberals in Michigan at Wayne State U political indoctrination camp officially decided the best way to address the STEM problem in the US (something their beloved leader Obama admits is a big problem) — is to eliminate the math requirement and create a new “diversity” requirement.
Political correctness is a requirement, math is not. Any “student” dumb enough to go to that school next year deserves to be unemployed.
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Only a not too bright person would not see getting as far away from the EU before it augers into the ground is the smart thing. Goodbye UK, Goodbye Europe. It was nice knowing you. Welcome to Londonstan and Parisbul!
Agreed. The only reason I can see for the ‘positive’ if Remain wins is that the UK can’t get the blame for the economic sh1tstorm which is on the horizon. If we leave the recession will be blamed on us leaving.
People are trying to glean too much in these polls. I don’t think this murder is going to have the impact Remain is hoping for. Just seems to be Remain and it’s media enablers trying to conjure up a narrative for victory. Horse is out of the barn. Achilles heel for Leave before the killing was complacency. Perceived tightening of polls will provide just the right amount of fear and angst for Leave to turnout in droves.
Plus many will blame Remain for that murder.
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What does the death of an MP have to do with a country determining whether it wants to be independent (with a chance of becoming strong again) versus being a part of the EU bound to fail dictatorship?
When remain wins, the murder will be used for the reason behind the surge in the votes.
Smells of false flaggery.
Not that it matters, the vote count fraud will keep the poor buggers in check.
As soon as the Cox assassination was announced there was no doubt in my mind it would have a significant impact on the final vote and be enough to kick the ‘remains’ over the finish line ahead of the “leaves”.
Human emotion is a huge factor in the electoral process throughout the world.
Quite a coincidence that it happened only a couple weeks prior to the day of the vote. Just enough time for the emotion to sink in. Does anyone on the board know the date of her funeral? Is it scheduled prior to the Brexit vote? Is it a public event to be aired throughout England on the networks? Look for another bump in the polls for the ‘remains’ shortly thereafter.
Strange how these things play out, isn’t it?
Hoping for a “leave” win but predicting a “remain” win and maintaining that position to the bitter end.
The tragedy wont matter. the remain is going to lose.
The vote to officially nullify the union doesn’t matter, because everyone in the EU are already living separate lives
It matters .
It matters to people in the UK.
Paris is already burning because they want their economy to be more like Venezuela’s
… And the referendum is for those that live in the UK . I don’t think people will be worrying if they offend Juncker or anyone else , nor what they make of the vote , though personally I find that to have to vote on this is degrading from the start . Who wants a bunch of foreign whoever eyeing up what you think of them, and their rules, in public ?
I don’t know why the British put themselves in a position to be humiliated so , EU is plain stupid from the start .
Greece has been negotiating against the EU for several years (against, not with — they are on opposite sides of the table). Spain keeps having perennial votes to separate Catalonia, and now they may elect an anti-EU coalition. Scotland was or wasn’t going to declare independence (again) from England. Ireland has been pushing London away for decades. Germany’s CDU (Merkel’s party) is in very serious trouble all over Germany, including (and especially) the CDU’s historical home state (the CDU somehow lost in last year’s local elections).
Not one EU country obeys the Maastrict Treaty, not even the alleged “anchor” countries. France has a different excuse every year, Italy doesn’t care, Germany adheres some of the time but not always. Remember the ESF was going to solve everything, then the EMSF was going to solve everything, then Draghi announced (without any legal basis) that his ECB would bail out everything — followed by endless announcements that the Greek problem had been solved once and for all (again).
Turkey’s Edrogan has far more influence on EU immigration policy than Merkel, Hollande, Cameron and Juncker combined. Germany’s top diplomat this week “warned” NATO to stop warmongering against Russia. The ECB claims it can spend as much money as it wants to prop up its cronies, while German lawmakers (with voter and judiciary support) say Germany will only back EUR160 billion in ECB losses.
France tells other countries not to launch unilateral military strikes without UN “permission” (talk about arrogance); but then France launches an attack on Libya. France has its insurance companies buying Dutch insurers, but Dutch companies are not allowed to buy French companies (as EU law should allow) because it would likely dilute the French culture, in violation of French laws (which sometimes take precedence over EU laws, like whenever it suits them).
Legally, a couple isn’t divorced until the court signs the divorce decree. But the couple formerly known as the EU has been separated for many years, they are living apart, openly dating other people, openly living with other people.
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“Separated and living apart, not yet divorced” is the status quo for the EU. Has been for many years. We are just waiting (many of us are losing interest) to see which group of voters is going to sign the divorce decree first.
Legally, there is a difference between long-time separated and divorced. Practically speaking, there is no difference.
God, the thought of waking up Friday to a new double dose of EU, should UK not leave, is too much for me .
After you tell your friends you are getting divorced, no wait you are staying together, no wait divorce, no wait together — and your friends see you living apart and sleeping with other people — they might smile and nod but no one really believes the marriage is working.
And the more you tell your friends the latest drama of together/divorced, the more your friends start to have other plans but maybe we can get together sometime after you sign the divorce papers.
Its not that your friends don’t like you, they are just fed up. Its a really boring soap opera that feels like every week is a repeat.
I still think economics of leaving will trump the censorship and deliberate misreporting, but the welfare crowd in Scotland already proved they can be lazy and stubborn when their welfare check depends on it. By the time the welfare crowd realize the EU is financially bankrupt, it will be way too late.
I also think a lot of Brits have to be watching the chaos in Paris as the welfare state tries to loosen labor laws that are the running joke of Europe… and the welfare crowd has turned Paris into a warzone. So Socialist Hollande is proposing that all protests be banned. That’s socialism for you. Sooner or later, you run out of Germany’s money.
So I am looking for investments in developing markets, places where socialism already collapsed and there are lots of young people struggling to better themselves.
England can stay or go, but the EU isn’t going anywhere for several generations.
Then maybe you are not directly subjected to EU influence , nor hope to walk in a country that you feel is your own once again ?
I am not subjected to EU stupidity. I am forced to listen to socialists like Obama and Sanders tell me the US capitalist system needs to act more like Venezuela. That is bad enough.
Paris is still burning, even Socialists in the Hollande regime are realizing the welfare state is taking its dying breaths. But the protesters were promised a free lunch, and free everything. They will fight for free welfare checks, but nothing else.
England has to decide if they want London to collapse too. Scotland has to decide if Paris can’t afford to fund their own welfare checks, will Paris make good on welfare checks to Edinburough?
Stay tuned next week on As the World Turns….
Greg, there is more to it than that , much more . EU is one layer that has to be lifted before the UK can move any closer to dealing properly with the rest of its ‘demeanour’ .
EU influence is subtle but effective towards its own ends , over forty years and counting . The EU is nowhere near as stupid as it is made out ,and the UK was stupid to join it . I don’t say EU has its direction clearly planned , nor that it has single handedly commanded Europe to the current circumstance , but the power at stake and the manipulation possible is immense , so there is no saying what direction EU , and remaining in EU , will bring .
However if the sense, the sentiment , is that it is not wholesome for the UK , nor fits its values , it is important that UK leave and reform itself . It is not easily presented with this simple formula , a referendum . That has taken years to demand , and is only the second with a direct say on the topic in those forty plus years .
You do, or don’t , accept EU influence as integral .
It matters , same as if you got to vote only every twenty years on how your country was actually founded , say along the lines of main constitutional reform and limitations in foreign influence .
@crysangle — you give the EU entirely too much credit.
Without on-going subsidies from the USA — from the Marshall plan to operating (way too many) military bases to IMF/World Bank loans to “overlooking” Europe’s failure to participate in NATO’s costs — the forty years of foolishness that you mention would not have happened.
By underwriting global trade (and using its military power to back it up), the US allowed Europe (especially Germany) to enjoy the trade surpluses and low cost energy that OPEC was not so keen on delivering. The UK government has been very careful to preserve and protect what they label the “special relationship” with the US for many years
The USA wasn’t a completely benevolent benefactor. We propped up western Europe and maintained the “coalition” farce that is NATO in order to contain the Soviet Union. It benefited the USA too.
It is not a coincidence that, just as the US is forced to retrench (reduce subsidies), Europe’s socialism has discovered it is running out of other people’s money. England’s “special relationship” with the USA is now viewed as less important since the US is mired in debt and unable to bankroll (militarily and financially) global trade. And without the boogeyman of the USSR to threaten Europe to stand behind NATO for protection, the continent is splintering yet again.
Europe hasn’t been moving ever closer for 40 years — the different cultures in Europe are just as different as before. They don’t have the money to make it happen this time.
I say “this time” because you also forget that this isn’t the first group of delusional fascists to decide to unify Europe whether the people want it or not. Hitler, Napoleon, the Latin Monetary Union, Charlemagne / Holy Roman Empire (not to be confused with the earlier Roman Empire). Its all been done before. Each time, people were told it was inevitable, the third reich would last 1000 years, vive la france, yadda yadda yadda.
Thatcher gave her famous line “Sooner or later, socialism fails because it runs out of other people’s money” way back in the 1970s — after England suffered a humiliating trip to the IMF for a bailout (just like Greece). The North Sea oil field royalties bought some time, Thatcher’s capitalist reforms helped get things moving again… until the song of the European socialists lured England into ruin again.
Its like the wife that keeps going back to her abusive husband, saying this time he really changed. Fool her once, shame on her. Fool her twice, three times, who knows how many times England has fallen for French socialism’s false promises (Marx was ….).
Yup, Paris is burning again. England is trying to decide if France will be supportive this go around. And the rest of the world is supposed to act surprised when England shows up covered with bruises because she ran into a door yet again.
At some point, England either has self-respect or it doesn’t. Cameron obviously has a big problem (he lies to himself, not just to the British public)
Yes, and I agree with what you are saying . My viewpoint is that an assembly of independent nations will integrate much better over time than the perpetual half way house of EU oversight, or US hedgemony. After WW2 I do not think Europeans would have even considered turning on each other… indefinitely. Eastern Europe is ‘reclaimed’ now, maybe EU deserves some thanks with regard, or not, but EU has tagged on new agendas now that are well beyond its remit. I don’t believe the US or any particular country runs the agenda, it is just clear who is participating, and to a degree how, who some of the enablers are, and that is all. In EU/US relationship, enticement action innocence and guilt are all ultimately a single show.
There are innocent people though, in the UK and Europe and the US, I think they would get along well and peacefully, and much more so, without an authority that pretends that it owns their combined future.
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I suspect, and hope, that the “Remain” campaign will find that the murder, and subsequent propaganda boost, happened just a few days too early…
LIKE!
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It’s over..
FTSE 100 jumps 3.2%; poised for biggest daily gain in 10 months
As Brexit fears continue to ease after referendum polls showed the Remain camp was gaining momentum, London’s FTSE 100 has charged ahead breaking through the 6,200 level for the first time in ten days.
The blue chip index has made gains of 194.61 points or 3.23% reaching 6,216.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/20/ftse-100-rallies-and-pound-soars-on-reduced-brexit-fears/
So was Jo Cox murdered in a false flag operation? I assume that the low information voters will respond “appropriately” and vote to remain as a result. Another successful operation for the Deep State!
Very easy to manipulate the betting odds almost impossible to manipulate a poll..George soros could simply bet a few million a week for a few weeks and a truly even bet would easily go to 2 to 1 or more..bookies don’t gamble they make money no matter what the outcome..but if the common folk continually see bookies laying 2 to 3 to 1 on stay the common folk believe they know something.
They don’t know and don’t care..