Britain’s EU referendum calls into question march toward closer ties; resistance over ‘total integration’
This holds true no matter which side wins the vote on Thursday.
The Wall Street Journal reports, and I agree, ‘Brexit’ Vote Will Change Europe, No Matter the Outcome.
If the U.K. decides in Thursday’s referendum to leave the European Union, it would shake the continent to its political foundations. Even if it stays, the bloc may never be the same.
A decision to leave, which would be a first by a member nation, would deepen the crisis facing a continent already struggling with economic weakness, debt problems, large-scale migration and growing geopolitical instability to its south and east.
The referendum, at a minimum, has delivered a shock to Europe’s political classes, calling into question what some had once regarded as an inevitable march toward a federal EU.
“Obsessed with the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people, the citizens of Europe, do not share our Euro-enthusiasm,” European Council President Donald Tusk observed in a speech in late May. “The specter of a breakup is haunting Europe, and a vision of a federation doesn’t seem to me like the best answer to it.”
Tusk at least seems to understand something. In contrast, Juncker Proclaims Himself All-Knowing God of EU.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Mish,
What’s your prediction on the Brexit outcome with two days to go?
52-48 Remain
@Mish — if you are right about Spain (in your earlier post), what happens when UK wakes up on Monday and finds out Spain is leaving the EU first?
Does France give in to corrupt unions and become the next Greece, or hold the line and become the next Italy? Does the recent election in Rome (new mayor) portend well for Italy staying in the EU?
I don’t know if UK will exit “this time”, but the situation in Brussels is only going to get worse (yes, I know the Greek crisis has been “settled once and for all” — at least 5 times).
.
I just don’t know how to trade this soap opera… its obvious the EU is going to die over the next year or two, but someone short could go broke during occasional sparks of life / dead cat bounces. A dying, cornered animal can do some really crazy things.
I agree. Remain wins by a small amount.
There’s a factor here which I haven’t seen anyone else notice throughout the entire campaign, which is that socialist Scotland is heavily pro-Remain whereas the much larger English population on balance seems to be slightly pro-Brexit. See this article for a nice map illustrating the position: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3652901/Are-neighbours-Interactive-map-reveals-Eurosceptic-areas-Britain-ahead-EU-referendum.html
If Mish is right and Remain narrowly wins this, then effectively we have the population of Scotland (~5M) effectively condemning a reluctant population of England (~60M) to continued membership of the EU, not least due to the fact that not only does England subsidise Scotland directly, but the English also subsidises the EU … which subsidises Scotland.
It gets worse. If the vote narrowly goes to Brexit, then the Scots are likely to call their own referendum in order to give themselves another chance to leave the UK union and join the EU instead. Thus the Scots have a win-win situation here; the English, not so much. And this after the initial Scottish independence referendum in 2014 when they decided to stay within the UK union … but the English didn’t get a chance to vote on it.
From the bitterness of my tone you might (correctly) discern that I am an Englishman.
Ha ha ha…. I see what you did there….very cagey…….
“Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad…”
“Even if it stays, the bloc may never be the same.”
The same as what???
Is this a subliminal entitled ‘ Equality Lost’ ?
And how much is a ringside seat ? A few borders, some banks and sovereignty ?
Wow, must be a really good show, but I’ll have to skip it, must trim the hedge a bit and a few other important things to do.
It won’t be the same because the EU will make it next to impossible to exit via a free election. They can’t risk leaving it up to the people to decide.
I agree the debate has alerted many who blindly accepted the bureaucracy of Brussels to the real problems with the current EU structure and the failure of the Eurozone has exacerbated the situation. Even the staunchest Euro-files will question the current EU structure.
The ideal was a United States with all of the good bits and none of the bad; however, many Europeans do not want to have any system close to a Washington look-alike and a completely new structure must be found which does not require centralisation.
Free trade is essential but not if it is stifled in bureaucracy.
I think the problem is very simple. The southern countries want to be supported by the northern countries.
Funny, no more comments about Trump……
Mish do u really believe that both these events-the murder of Jo Cox and the comments of Tory Councillor Dominic Peacock- were unfortunate unplanned events? With all that’s on the line here the first one I believe ok, maybe, but the second one no way. After the sympathy gives a boost to the remain side several days go by and the Brexit side starts to make a comeback. Then the outrageous way over the top comments by Mr Peacock-everyone says go with the bookies-Its too late for them to b totally objective now- but I wonder what the objective odds would have been for both events accidentally taking place so dramatically with all that’s at stake-too late for a conspiracy theory I guess-but have you even considered that our wonderful commercial bankers have made the biggest bullion bet EVER for remain as we watch the price of gold tumble?
The WSJ equation, Remain = Brexit, is totally false. The WSJ is just delivering a “soft propaganda” spiel by saying there is no difference between Remain and Brexit. Orwellian. Next the WSJ will be arguing that a vote for Hilary is the same as a vote for Trump, because either way you will get four new equally qualified Supreme Court justices. A Brexit win will have a quite different impact on UK History, just as a Trump Supreme Court will be quite different from a Hilary Supreme Court. I suspect the Brits are not such dumb-asses to fall for the WSJ propaganda lines.
Tusk’s skills rival those of Obama in lulling the logic centers to sleep. Tusk is a War Party shill (in the neo-Con mold of Sec. State Clinton & Victoria Nuland), and is just a propaganda mouth for the real powers in Brussels, Berlin and the USA behind the EU Empire. If the Brits vote against Brexit, Tusk’s melodious words will join the famous Obamacare sales propaganda in the annals of politics. Merkel and Juncker matter, not Tusk, who is on his way out in Poland and no doubt auditioning for a permanent tax-free EU job.
If Brexit is defeated, it will be full steam ahead with renewed arrogance and confidence for the EU nannycrat dictatorship. A Losing Brexit will indicate UK rejection of self-rule and popular support for being ruled by the EU Empire (Brussels & Berlin). After a losing Brexit vote, it will be high treason to hold Brexit views against the EU Brussels-Berlin axis whose legitimate sovereignty over the UK will have been affirmed by the UK popular vote. The WSJ is peddling a false propaganda narrative when they say Remain = Brexit.
Agreed.
WSJ is a shameless Globalist whore.
You nailed it. Classic CIA agitprop. You’ve already won so chill out man.
Sooner or later we all sit down to a banquet of consequences but it still matters whether you’re eating a deusch bag salad or a shit sandwich. Still time to choose Brittain. Don’t F*** it up.
That is right on the mark. Notice how this is being aired as a division to do with EU.When it comes to building bridges, unity, cooperation, peace, harmony, and every similar attribute, it is those of EU that are raised and rained down on the British.
Where, WHERE , is the slightest concern about the antagonisms, discontent, argument, that being a member of EU has caused in British society ?
When two Brits are pitted against each other, one dies and EU gains traction from the event as if it represents a solution instead of being part of the problem, I have to ask :
Are People Really That Stupid ?
For the most part I agree, except that Brits are every bit the dumb-asses Americans and other people the world over are. If you don’t believe me, pull up a soccer clip on YouTube and enjoy the show. These are the people who will vote, that is, if they can stagger out of bed to do so.
Kev mate, football is England, but you are right about staggering out of bed…. put yourself in a local stadium and you would know what I mean. It seems a short detail, but name where else you find several tens of thousands singing together in encouragement and support :
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ORHpaqdwwlQ
“Is this a trick question?”
The politicians are less concerned about what the people think, than what they want them to think.
The WSJ is shilling for the status quo here. Bremain means the Brits have ceded their sovereignty to EU commissars. The Queen may as well bow to the overlords in Brussels. The Bremain campaign is one of fear. Hell will freeze over if Britain reclaims Britannia. It is rather amazing to me that more half the British voters are willing to throw away centuries of proud British history. And a people that ruled the world a few centuries ago now become supplicants of their own accord.
The main question is will the majority allow the Absentee management to tell the British how they must conduct thier lives and pay a petty penny to some unelected body that has proved over and over that they can’t run Europe but in to my the ground.
Sorry for the typeO did say how much I hate typing on phone.
If Mish’s earlier post about Spanish elections is correct (looking like Rajoy is in serious trouble), Spain might leave the Euro first. The Eurocrats say it takes two years to “gracefully” leave the Euro bloc, but if Spain decides to default at gunpoint — it could happen almost overnight.
If England decides to boot the Queen and replace her with Brussels, and if Rajoy somehow survives in Spain… Merkel’s CDU was devastated in state elections last winter. There is a decent chance the CDU will be replaced in the next national German election, and the only way of preventing that likely involves replacing Merkel with someone less Brussels friendly (or being the political survivalist she is, maybe Merkel becomes Brussels hostile).
Italy looks as bankrupt as Spain. Even though Draghi thinks he fixed Greece once and for all (for the umpteenth time) — Greek debt will need another roll over, another IMF bailout soon.
And if Draghi keeps up his moronic negative interest rate scam, German banks will collapse and take the Euro down with them.
Any way you look at this, the EU will remain on critical life support. If the British don’t hurry up and kill the Euro first — then Spain, Italy, Greece, Germany and the ECB will.
Oh and we all seem to be forgetting that Paris is in flames, with violent protests and lawless police curfews (they “temporarily suspended” the laws). Ah, the tranquil civility of Paris!
Government unions are threatening to destroy an already bankrupt French economy if they are forced to work. At least 17% unemployment (much higher for the younger generations who are expected to pay the debt?). And restless Algerian immigrants have been crammed into poverty stricken ghettos outside of Paris and told not to join the chaos.
France might beat Italy into bankruptcy court or into civil war, depending on which odds maker you ask.
Spain won’t leave the EU. They’re too dependent on being able to take on EU debt. They’re no different from Greece.
I don’t think they would get further than Greece as well, but it could turn ‘civil’ there and out of control.
UK leaving will be the second time a country leaves the union. The first country to do that in a referendum was Greenland in , I think, 1985.
The country is area wise about the size of the rest of the EU.
The leave was greeted by the EU with a shrug.
Yeah, its the Sun… but apparently they are quoting the Queen’s official biographer and the Queen asked for three reasons why UK should stay (she doesn’t get an official vote):
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1320632/queen-asks-guests-at-vip-dinner-for-their-views-on-eu-ahead-of-brexit-vote/
Hopefully the people in England are waking up to the reality that the Brexit crowd is full of charlatans and con artists and their best decision would be to stay with the EU and be governed by the wise bureaucrats of Brussels. Obama says they should stay..are you going to be a racist and ignore him and the 46 million he has on food stamps stimulating the economy?
Doesn’t matter what the People want. Brexit will fail and the Remains will prevail. In the end Big Money and Big Power gets what it wants.
How soon the People forget about TARP and the Greek vote.
The game is fixed.
History repeats.
Bank printers made ordinary people dislike the EU. Printing sub prime, followed by endless demands for bailouts. Replacing the democratically elected leaders of Greece and Italy with bankers. Printing food inflation that led to chaos across the Mid East, and refugees moving into Europe. Terrifying retirees by constantly threatening to inflate away their pensions and savings. Debt to the moon.
Bank theories just don’t work in the real world.
Who cares. Brexit = Greek Referendum.
Same sh*t even after an Exit vote. Just watch.
“’Obsessed with the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people, the citizens of Europe, do not share our Euro-enthusiasm,’”
I guess the vote indicated that.