On Sunday, June 26, voters in Spain go back to the election booths one more time following the December national elections in which no coalition could achieve a majority.
Recent polls suggest a coalition of socialists are on the verge of an absolute majority.
The above chart from El Pais.
The polls show United We Can plus PSOE is within one of an absolute majority. If necessary, they could pick up a few votes from “other”.
No other coalitions make any practical or mathematical sense.
It is possible PSOE and/or Ciudadanos abstain, perhaps on the grounds that acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy steps aside. Abstention would allow PP to stay in power.
One way or another it does not appear Rajoy will survive this election. As it sits, a coalition of socialists is the most likely outcome.
If so, Brussels will not be pleased with the result.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Why would Brussels not be pleased with socialists? They seem like natural allies.
Spanish socialists have just as bad a reputation for graft and corruption as the PP (not quite as bad as the U.S.). Unidos Podemos is supposed to be opposed to all that, but an alliance with the PSOE must inevitably result in mucho Spanish taxpayer dollars ending up in Panama.
I have lots of relatives in Spain. They are wedded forever to the Euro. Socialist or capitalist, they will knuckle under to Brussels, just like Greece.
I think France is more interesting. French labor is making a real stand against the neo-liberal order. Hollande has bent over for Brussels, hoping for a warm reach around. its not going to happen for him. But it should be fun to see if Brussels can destroy the traditional, and very powerful, French left.
I think they can pull it off. They are taking their time. Boiling the frog. Living standards for the working class will go down for decades. But slowly enough that it won’t be all that noticeable. You just got to keep people divided for long enough to create the new normal.
Again, United Podemos are *not* ‘socialists’, Mish—they are avowed communists. PSOE is made up of aparatchik social-democrats and younger radical socialists, so as long as the social-democrats hold control of the party there is no chance of a coalition with the far left. Besides, such a coalition would likely mean the end of century-plus old PSOE. Rajoy is a mediocre egocentric bureaucrat who has no intention of relinquishing power, and he controls most mass media in Spain. So the most likely result is a hung parliament, i.e. essentially no change, possibly until December.
The real danger lies at regional level. Regional nationalists might choose to massively vote Unidos Podemos to get the independence they long for. That would mean Yugoslavia 2.0, with serious consequences for the rest of the EU.
Some polls put Podemos very close to PP in terms of vote, Rajoy acknowledged this yesterday, saying if the moderate vote splits left/right PP may lose. . Podemos and ‘other’ might block PP if Ciudadanos and PSOE abstain, so that would mean one of those would have to vote for, and one abstain, re. PP, that would be Ciudadanos siding with PP normally . It is a very bad combination whichever way it turns and is likely to create a dysfunctional government, also there may be a strong reaction to a new PP government . Rajoy announced he would not present himself to a third vote. PSOE reminded it will not vote in PP, and though some consider otherwise, I have trouble imagining they will vote in Podemos too.
Podemos is a radical left-wing group
I am not sure they even know what political tendency they are. Self described new lib-dems, nationalist, ex-communist, regionalist, anti elitest, and more. I think you could describe them as revolutionary populists with a harder left economic agenda than socialist.
The fact that Podemos cannot be judged by act instead of word yet, makes it something of a guess, the only guarantee is that they truly plan to change the status quo.
More or less in keeping with the political aims of the late Santiago Carrillo (“house-broken” leader of the PCE for many years)?