Four new Brexit polls came out today.
- An online poll by Opinium was slightly in favor of Leave.
- An online poll by TNS was slightly in favor of Leave.
- An online poll by YouGov was slightly in favor of Remain.
- A phone poll by ComRes shows a 6 point lead for Remain.
If you give the nod to phone polls, Remain is in the lead. Nonetheless, let’s take a deeper look.
Brexit Polls Final Tally
The surge for leave peaked on June 13 or so, before the Jo Cox murder. Many claim “I told you so.”
While I cannot dispute the peak, what happened next is highly debatable. It is likely Jo Cox amplified the expected snapback.
Unlikely the Final Say: Comres: Andrew Hawkins, Chairman of ComRes, said: “As anticipated, the final campaign week has seen a boost for the status quo. But if Remain win, as now appears likely, it will be a victory lacking enthusiasm. Support for Remain is broad and shallow, with Remain voters responding most to warnings about the negative economic risks of voting to Leave. In contrast, support for Leave is deeper but narrower. The burning question now is whether Remain’s win will be of a sufficient margin to settle the issue of EU membership ‘for a generation’, as David Cameron put it. The visceral mood of the campaign, the negative messaging and the likely closeness of the outcome all make it unlikely that this is the end.”
Historical Imputations From ORB: “Rather than excluding those who are still undecided, ORB has opted to impute their voting preference by three to one in favour of Remain driven primarily by the theory that undecided voters tend to vote in favour of the status quo as they haven’t been sufficiently persuaded by the argument for a change. This analysis suggests a result of 54% Remain, 46% Leave.”
Likelihood to Vote
In ORB’s final poll, not only did the likelihood of the two most likely age groups to vote Remain rise dramatically, the likelihood of the most likely age group to vote Leave fell.
On top of that, ORB imputed a 3-1 advantage for Remain on most undecided voters, leaving a mere 2% truly “undecided”.
ORB may be right or wrong, but it does come down to this:
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I said it a month ago. I’ll say it again.
Photo finish. Remains nip the Leaves by a nose at the wire.
The globalists will not permit the pawns to escape the grasp of their control.
It’s destiny in our Brave New World.
Coming to a theater near you soon.
Best speech for Brexit.
I’VE SEEN BRITAIN’S POST BREXIT FUTURE AND ITS BEAUTIFUL
2/3 of bets are on BREXIT. Big money bag Remains COOKED THE BOOKS.
it is a rare moment in history. The British haven’t had their say since they voted to join the European Community back in 1975. What was initially thought of as a project to unite Europe into one common market, with the benefits of free trade and great promises of increasing national wealth, has mutated into a completely different entity.
Google predicts BREXIT win.
Photo finish with voter fraud taking the lead.
Agree. but for a different reason. People are smart, groups of people are stupid. British leaders appear to turn on their citizens by openly lying about the benefits of remaining in the EU. This is incomprehensible to me, yet true and obvious. England will remain in the EU, of this I am sure and disappointed. The EU will continue to grow in power and domination and stupidity. They will retain public support. They will be the roots of dystopia, fortunately I will be long gone from old age before it takes over.
In a similar note, Hillary Clinton will be thoroughly discredited as a liar, corrupt politician, criminal who got away with it, war monger, and incompetent diplomat in such a way that all will accept her as such. The public will see her in far more agreement than in the 1990s when the Clintons were in the White house and inept Republicans mounted daily attacks. She will still be our next President.
The world deserves whatever it gets as a result of these two events.
FYI, interest rates will remain low and QE will remain high so that central banks can support governments that spend far beyond their means, forever. This will complete the trinity of inept governments, inept monetary policy, and complicit citizenry who all prefer this way of life to any other alternative. Anyone who expects better is wasting their time and energy. Let’s not forget perpetual war, as war is good for business.
Hot Cocoa said:
Agree. It’s rigged. Too much money involved. Look at the Pound rally…the bankers know and insiders are buying
The BBC should run a special of the muslim pedophiles in their major cities.
Now go vote 18-35 year olds…
Looks like rain.
ruharvey@ aol.com said:
U.S. Markets agree – BREXIT Wins.
i wonder if there’s any Nostradamus references to this event?
If not, someone will fabricate one.
john R said:
Just voted, the most important vote of my lifetime. God I hope the British people make the right decision and choose to leave the EU and regain freedom for us and future generations.
So after all this rubbish and scare mongering, the insiders are losing the argument but “winning” the referendum (maybe) …. and as Mish’s quote from Andrew Hawkins/Comres points out, a Remain outcome won’t settle a thing.
We’ll all be reading MishTalk again next year about yet another Brexit vote. And another one after that. Plus the “exit EU” movement has spread all over the EU. Cornered fascists will rig the outcomes and do bizarre unspeakable things before they finally are brought to justice.
Europe the people (as opposed to the lazy bureaucrats) are further apart than when this soap opera started.
Before there was dignity and respect, all progressively trashed.
Likely they will leave and the markets around the world will rally like it’s 1999.
So wouldn’t I be long Euro on the news of Remain?
Seems odd the Pound rallies on the news.
Everyone is devaluing against everyone anyways…so what’s the vote about anyways other than adding churn to a market that peaked well over a year ago and again finds itself fading from the fakeout rally since February?
It’s all rigged to pretend the people have made their choice. Look for tight result and some “absentee” ballots to finish off the LEAVE vote. Too much money, power involved. Plus global anarchist corporate class wants Muslims in country so they can solve the issue later using unified government(as in corporations)
I was hoping for a 5% lead for Leave on the eve of the polls, instead we have seen swing back to level pegging, not sure which way it will go now, all down to turnout which is anyone’s guess. Afraid the made up scaremongering that the economy would collapse if we left has had too big an effect.
The other absurdity is Irish nationals and others, Commonwealth as well I believe, are allowed to vote. It could be them who give Remain a win.
chris m said:
oddschecker latest odds have
Remain @1/8 (like 90%+ chance of staying in)
Brexit @5/1 (dont even bother to vote)
looks like i might not even bother to vote at all, as i already know the result.
chris m said:
it seems that there is another event going on today that may Trump the shenanigans going on in the UK (ie the EU referendum)
and that, if true, would be India and Pakistan being admitted as full members of
the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
“…turnout age 18-35…”
It’s pouring with rain at 4:38pm in Wembley as my 53-year-old cousin goes to vote fo brexit. He is hopeful that bremainers won’t bother.
Appreciate your updates wooty.
Chris wants to look into “expected value” and how the odds can be cooked.
Odds aren’t necessarily so…….
Prison Inmate Search said:
Hard to believe Alan Renwick is repeating errors already drawn to his attention months ago.
1. “We leave once a deal – which requires the support of the UK and a ‘qualified majority’ of the remaining 27 member states (specifically, 20 of them, comprising at least 65 per cent of their population) – is struck.”
No. The Treaties shall cease to apply .. from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement.
2. “If we find ourselves outside the EU with no deal, we automatically revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules on trade. That means that tariffs have to be imposed on trade between the UK and the EU. ”
No. The WTO does not require tariffs. It permits them. In any case Alan Renwick’s entire point 4 is based on the highly questionable assumption that the UK has no bargaining ability at all. It is true that Cameron and Osborne have been proclaiming that their government is utterly supine and useless when it comes advancing or protecting British interests – with lurid, not to say fantastic consequences – but it is not necessarily so.
3. Alan Renwick’s point 4 is based on another wholly incorrect assumption that the future relationship with the EU – if any – must be decided within the two year period. Article 50: “the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.”
This means first that the two year limit applies only to terms of withdrawal and second that an extension beyond two years requires the agreement of the UK. This places UK in a very strong position: if the EU does not agree terms of withdrawal within two years it stands to get nothing, zero, zilch unless the UK agrees an extension and then only to negotiate, not necessarily to agree.
4. Point 7 ” Both sides in the referendum campaign agree that this whole process would take several years, during which the UK would remain in the EU.”
This contradicts point 4 and also makes the false assumption that the article 50 process is about negotiating a new relationship, which it is not. This also misses the point that the Remain side is the Government and the Leave side is not an alternative government. The Government can do a great deal, if it so chooses, to reduce uncertainty without have to negotiate its actions with the EU, eg., replacing all EU grants and funding immediately with UK grants and funding, probably for a limited period pending review.
5. Also in Point 7: “Until the negotiation process is complete, the UK remains fully subject to its obligations under EU law. ”
No. “The Treaties shall cease to apply .. from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement.” We do not need to wait until any new arrangement is concluded, only terms of withdrawal. Then the European Communities Act 1972 can be repealed.
6. Point 8 is just nonsense since it conflates terms of withdrawal and a new relationship. Furthermore, UK is already a member of the WTO and there is clearly no requirement to negotiate with all 50 countries that have trade deals with the EU. Many are simply irrelevant.
Brexit voters telling each other to bring pens to polling stations — prevent Cameron from rigging votes / erasing pencil marks.
I have no idea if Cameron or his thugs are actually erasing pencil marks (wouldn’t put it past him) — but it sounds a lot like the Brexit campaign is pretty organized and actively getting out the vote
Come on! You know that Radical Islamic Terrorist Tool Cameron does!
Rumour is big turnout in Leave areas, 70-80%. NW England impressive turnout by blue collar Labour leavers. All just rumours.
JP Morgan …..when they removed a Brexit “hoax” poll, the lead for the Leave crowd increased.
Her Majesty The Eurosceptic Queen: EU Courts ‘Denigrate’ Britain By Protecting Terrorists
I liked his speech.
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