Please recall that Prime Minister David Cameron repeatedly stated there will be no second vote.
Cameron also stipulated that he would invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which represents formal notification of a decision to leave the EU.
Unfortunately, the battle is not over. A key question remains: Is Cameron an even bigger liar than we all know?
Now that the vote is in, I fully expect all the other liars, notably French president Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to propose a second vote with added sweeteners.
Also note the Brexit vote is not legally binding. Cameron could easily resign, leaving this up to the next parliament to decide.
Either of those is arguably more likely than straight-up leave negotiations.
And we have yet to hear from European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker who no doubt will promise (lie) anything and everything to get another vote.
Vote by Country
I captured that snapshot earlier in the evening. I have no update but it is likely reasonably close.
What I am certain of is the two biggest votes for remain were Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Final Question
I leave you with one final question: Whose country is this, and will Cameron support it?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Scotland should have left when they had the chance
99% of votes counted and LEAVE wins with 51.8%, just about the opposite of the predicted result. Kudos to you Brits. Shame on you Scots.
The adults can’t allow this vote result to take effect, just like the thinking about the Quebec vote except there they just adjusted the vote,here they need to override the majority – for their own good, of course!
I always stated it was going to be Middle England that was going to decide the outcome. And was hoping that at the Bookies it was the fact that 70% of the bets were for OUT, that still meant there was hope.
Anyway still a start to regaining control of sovereignty, but a good start.
Cameron clearly much weaker, Boris clearly stronger. Cameron support likely conditioned on support for Brexit, maybe Boris in charge of negotiations and heir apparent.
Bankers enraged, but hopefully little they can do given vote and large Tory support for Brexit… And those that opposed Brexit don’t want to go to the polls soon on their own account… Cameron himself very unpopular.
Cameron is history, he is probably wondering if he should hang himself before someone else does.
At that level in the UK, you don’t f around. He should not have campaigned, he is damaged property now.
Any part he plays in future government will be taken as purposefully antagonistic.
I would think Juncker started wetting his PJs hours ago, and called Cameron to tell him (not ask) to stay on as PM.
If you were Juncker (or any of the unelected fascists in Brussels) — do you want to “negotiate” a trade agreement with Cameron or with Farrage?
England will get the same terms as Switzerland, or better — because the EU can’t afford to say no.
The lame duck in the White House, on the other hand, just got much lame-er-er-er. Hard to imagine a real American president being opposed to democracy, but that’s Obama for you. And with 6 months to departure, any trade threats Obama makes are just out of spite.
EU means sht now, including Juncker, whose last words before the vote were ‘ out is out ‘.
Talk is of a 10% drop in EU markets, Cameron giving a speech at 8am local time, just as they open, in a half hours time.
This is going to be ‘fun’, and probably either sad or sickening or both as far as what he tries to say…
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/24/global-markets-ftse-pound-uk-leave-eu-brexit-live-updates
The EU can’t afford to bail out tiny Greece, where would they get the resources to bribe England?
As Mish pointed out, Spain’s Rajoy is likely gone this coming Sunday. The EU will have to make lots of concessions there (as Spain is a debtor, and could easily just tell the ECB to eat the losses of a default).
France can’t afford to bribe its public unions, much less other countries.
Greek debt is up for another roll over and/or default soon. How does the EU give free money to England and not give free money to Greece? Where would the EU get money to do either?
And Germans have simply had it with having their savings destroyed. Merkel might make lots of promises, but the CDU already has serious problems with the German electorate. Either Merkel tells Brussels enough, or the CDU gets themselves a new leader, or the AfP evicts the CDU from office. I suspect the first option (Merkel is a political survivalist), but none of the options would give Brussels the room to bribe Greece much less a bigger economy.
The EU will be gone by August unless they find a way to work with England. They will offer full trade access to Europe in exchange for equal access to British markets — its not like the EU has any negotiating power.
Spain, Greece and (probably) France are going to default. Germany is not going to throw Deutche bank into the trash bin.
Juncker will be on his knees begging Farage for leniency. England will get the same (possibly better) trade terms as Switzerland.
All the fear mongering in the world isn’t going to change this
All BS on the part of those who thought they had it rigged well enough to be able to say “See, we have the backing of the people.”
Still, Brexit isn’t in the cards. Allowing “Leave” at this point would bring the whole facade down. Remember, “What Ever it Takes?” soon to be applied to reversal of the implications of this referendum.
Ben Hunt has a nice article up, called “Stuck.” All of them are stuck. From Brussels to Eccles to Basel. They are all out of options, other than attempted command and control of the results of the chaos they created.
Next we will hear “In the interest of preserving markets, we are postponing any exit.” Then, “In the interest of national security”,,,and so on.
It’s for “The little people” mind you.
Put another way, the EU will not be dissolved in an orderly democratic manor. It will be destroyed uncontrollably in a violent way, by it’s own illogical construct, after all means of placing band-aids on it fail.
Undoubtedly in the early morning hours behind closed doors in the smoke-filled rooms the globalists are scheming their next move. Brexit won’t stand as intended. Some new cockamamie plan will get introduced that’ll dilute the will of the People. The globalists will throw a bone to just enough peasants to get their desired outcome in a 2nd vote.
I just can’t believe that England would be allowed to depart the EU. Now the squabbling begins. Hopefully the Brits won’t allow the globalists to steal their votes and their country.
The People voted. The intention of the vote should get implemented. The People should demand nothing less and REFUSE any do-overs.
Now we’ll see the real character and resolve of the folks in England.
Will they follow though or fold?
It was established more than a year ago that the globalists don’t have the money or resources to bail out Greece. What makes you think they can bribe a much bigger economy?
Seriously old man. Enough of this. No one cares what the fascists want.
Enter this tidbit regarding “Direct Democracy.”
http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/AmericanIdeal/aspects/demrep.html
It gets even more messy in systems based on Monarchy.
City of London financial people are globalists, and they benefit from EU exit. So, why would they undermine their victory?
Right now I am caught up in the glee of the Brits rubbing sh1t in obama’s face. Obama’s Wrexit.
If the British people want to rub &^*) in Obama’s face, they will have to wait until the Cubans are finished doing so.
Obama issued dire warnings and drew some more of his red lines thru the South China Sea. China just shrugged their shoulders, said “whatever”, and focused on what Trump might do
Not England, but UK. Or at least England+Wales.
This was supposed to be a reply to LFOldTimer
For Cameron to resign would mean he cares more the cause (Remain) than his own career, which is absurd and out of character for someone who has climbed to the top in British politics. Losing an election of this sort is hardly the end of the line. Indeed, for Cameron, this “loss” should be regarded as a success, as Cameron, far from being a liar, kept his promise to have a referendum on the issue. That is the larger issue, holding the referendum. Of course, lots of lies for Remain, but that is typical election stuff and is now water under the bridge. Remember, Cameron lived with dissenting party members and did not attempt a purge over the issue; and it would be poor sportsmanship for the winning Brexit wing of his party to kick him out. He is still the leader, as he kept the party together and on top through all the tumult and dissent. Pretty remarkable by any measure.
Voters did not reject Cameron per se. Now Cameron is in a very strong bargaining position vis-à-vis the Brussels nannycrats and Merkel. The Brits and City of London get their way and relegated to irrelevance are the EU nannycrats and their crazy financial transaction taxes, immigration schemes etc. Like India and their Africa colonies before them, the Brits by opting out of Colonial status within the EU have indicated they are ready for self-rule.
Someone was bound to not get their wishes in the referendum. Brits and Wales versus Scotland and Ireland is an ancient divide. By being free of Brussels, UK should be more competitive in the global economy. London versus EU should be a no-brainer for industry and finance. Scotland and Northern Ireland should also reap the benefits.
The EU desperately needs to keep trade with England going, so England will get the same or better terms as Switzerland.
But if you were Juncker (or the other clowns in Brussels) — do you want to negotiate with Cameron or with Farage? The EU will be groveling before one or the other by September.
“For Cameron to resign would mean he cares more the cause (Remain) than his own career, which is absurd and out of character for someone who has climbed to the top in British politics.”
It is in keeping with British tradition that politicians resign when their campaign or major policy stance fails.
“And we have yet to hear from European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker who no doubt will promise (lie) anything and everything to get another vote.”
Juncker should resign along with Cameron. Perhaps Merkel too. Juncker’s accession to the EU presidency with Merkel’s backing was a slap in the face to Cameron. And he has contempt for non-elites.
Maybe Merkel should resign, but she is a political survivalist. Merkel will turn on Brussels like her career depends on it. Whether the German populace will tolerate the about face I don’t know (she has survived in part because there are limited obvious alternatives)
If Cameron opts to resign, Juncker would probably want to. But how would the EU pick a new fall guy before Sunday when Rajoy gets the heave-ho?
“My first and most immediate action as Prime Minister post Brexit, is to order a trillion tons of concrete to be poured down the Channel Tunnel.”
There … Sorted 🙂
No need to do that – Just let the French unions blockade it
Carney has just come up with his own version of a “Whatever it takes” moment. I am no expert on these matters but wonder what he really can do other than waffle and threaten Ctrl P which seemed to be the nub of his message. Oh there was a slightly self-congratulatory moment in which he reflected on the (now) strength of the banks as compared with 2008, but little information about the potential weakness of the European banks. Any informed views?
Just watching Spanish banks trading near -20%… no idea how they are going to backstop this, words… but intervention has traditionally been a national government programs. Italian banks were halted earlier in the week, suppose the ECB has its QE at hand, but not sure if it can be used openly as price support in this manner…. guessing.
Watch what goes next… if the figures being aired bare out then there are hundreds of billions getting flushed in the next ten minutes… could short the whole system out…
WOW
-16% on Ibex, – 10% Bel…
“Housebuilders plunge by 40%
It’s an absolute rout!
The FTSE 100 has shed 527 points, or over 8%, in a massive selloff….
Some shares have lost a third of their value. Housebuilders Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon have plunged by 40%
And some shares have still not opened….”
With a 4% margin for brexit there is no way another vote will be allowed. The pressure from the brexiters will be immense to push on with severing the euro umbilical cord which was\is wrapped around our necks
This reminds me of Iceland’s referendum that said no to the banks back in 2010…Perhaps this is part of a new trend of the people demanding what they want instead of waiting for their “””representatives””” to do it for them?
Cameron will resign. Bet on it.
If Cameron resigns (agree he probably wants to / it is in keeping with tradition) — that would be a plus for British trade / businesses.
UK will get at least the same trade terms as Switzerland; Cameron (based on his own track record) would be far more accommodating toward Juncker than a Brexit supporter.
While we were obsessing over Brexit — a Dutch (Geert Wilder?) and France’s Le Pen (who else?) have both demanded that their countries also be allowed to tell Brussels where to shove it — diplomatically of course.
Short term panic moves in the market aside (speculators caught off balance / getting margin calls) — England will come out just fine medium term.
What remains of the EU is in very very serious trouble…. no one is going to want to be the last country holding the bag of #$*%
Cameron has resigned, fantastic news.
Yes. It’s 2 wins in 1.
Cameron: I called for the vote, the Brexit side won, we must honor what the voters say. Blah, blah. Could be that was the plan all along.
“We have to be honest in our exploration of the Brexit event and admit that in this case the globalists win either way.
If the Brexit succeeds, the globalists can allow the market systems they have been inflating for years to finally crash. They can then blame those dastardly “far-Right extremists” in the U.K. for triggering a domino effect within the global financial system, conveniently scapegoating British conservatives, moderates and sovereigns for a breakdown that was going to happen eventually anyway. Their solution will once again be to argue for the end of “barbaric” conservative principles and install complete centralization and socialism as the cure.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-22/brexit-global-trigger-event-fake-out-or-something-else
The article goes on to say that the Brexit vote may be allowed to succeed because 1) Soros and other elites have suddenly decided to jump back into the market on the negative side, and 2) the IMF and BIS have been warning that a global downturn is on its way in 2016 and, if it happens, they can blame it all on Brexit.
“…the IMF and BIS have been warning that a global downturn is on its way in 2016 and, if it happens, they can blame it all on Brexit.”
They can blame it on anything they want. They will just look like clowns in doing so. The business cycle has not been eliminated by the IMF. Neither has the IMF eliminated the Kondratieff cycle.
EU needs a new financial capitol. Who do you trust with your money? Italians, French, or those Volkswagen Diesel types?
Noone ever needed a “financial Capital.”
Noone aside from the banksters grazing there, and their fellow traveler politicians and apparatchiks, have ever benefited from being stuck with one in their midst.
Within an, at most, 5% margin of error, the only “purpose” they serve, is to provide an obfuscation mechanism for robbing productive people for the benefit of connected people.
totally stunned
glad i got out to vote 15 minutes before polls closed
England 1 The Illuminati 0
how could the bookmakers get it so completely wrong?
Remain was 1/8 ;Brexit @5/1 on the day of polling