Several readers are still wondering why the odds-makers and pollsters got it wrong so badly.
Let’s recap.
- If the odds-makers made money, they got it correct. If they lost money, they got it wrong. That is all there is to it. Odd-makers do not predict results. People betting money do. I have not seen any analysis that suggest the odds-makers lost money. It’s possible they did, but if so it was most likely due to a late voting surge.
- The pollsters did blow it badly. I surmise pollsters looked at historical trends to judge a vote that happens once a century or so. Since the pollsters got it so wrong last time, they over compensated this time. ORB was particularly bad.
- Surprise surprise. It turns out the online polls were far more accurate. In telephone polls, the pollsters attempt to persuade people to choose. Was there a bit of a hint in that force?
- Jo Cox. There was a snapback in favor of remain that started before the murder of Jo Cox. However, it’s now pretty clear, as I suggested all along, that snapback was exaggerated. When pressured to choose, I suspect people said Remain out of sympathy, then voted how they really felt at the voting booth.
- Passion and Complacency. It was a given by many that Remain would win. But the passion was with leave. Likely voters for Leave turned out in droves. Voters for remain had less passion than voters for Leave.
- The weather. Without a doubt weather played a role. But weather and passion go together. Rain likely kept more Remain voters home than Leave voters.
- Lies. Let’s not discount the possibilities of outright lies. In an online survey it’s easy to be honest. When talking to a live person, there is a tendency to say what the other person wants to hear. Also, some people just did not want to admit to others personally they took a stance opposite to that of their party. With online polls people do not have such reservations. Online is impersonal.
Points #2, #7, #5, and #4 resonate strongly in this corner (and in that order).
There is going to be some serious soul searching by the pollsters and analysts following yet another pathetic performance by them.
Nearly everyone “presumed” how those undecided voters would vote, despite there being no real historical precedent.
For further discussion please see …
- History Lesson: Don’t Count On History
- Word of Thanks to the Person Most Responsible for Brexit: Angela Merkel
- D I V O R C E – Sarkozy Calls for New Treaty, Reiterates “Turkey Has No Place in EU”
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
George Soros fixed it so “Leave” will win so he could make money shorting the pound but will get his marionette Obama to do whatever it takes to keep Britain in and give young people there a future
I think your estimation of Mr. Soros’ power and influence may be somewhat too elevated.
However, as a well-connected insider, he surely may have had knowledge of the outcome well in advance. I wonder whether the so-called “elites” were not also fully advised as to how this would turn out … if not actually involved in some of their own engineering behind the scenes.
Everyone is now celebrating their defeat in this BREXIT vote. I wonder about this.
Many have commented about the 1988 article in The Economist titled “Get ready a world currency”, which is scheduled for 2018 (you can google and see tons of references, if you have not). Was this vote orchestrated to further this objective?
Conspiracy theories abound … and Mr. Soros is mentioned frequently … whether he is a puppet master himself, or the tool of sources even more powerful is open to question.
(ok … I am going to take off my tin foil hat now to get back to the real world)
“the number is two” in Chess.
It’s not enough to be right…you have to have the second move too…which is why I avoid this crap because there is pretty much only one of a kind smarts for “moves one then two.” (I think there was a French dude in Loius XIVth ‘s Court who really was a master… Montesquieu?…anyhow… George Soros was WRONG. He got the gold part right…but that flag waving in the breeze waves from one end of the Planet to the other…it’s called the UNION Jack for a reason.
So sure…the Pound gets slammed (news flash: still even with the dollar YTD) and yes gold tacks on a forty spot…ZIPPITY DOO DAH! The entire European financial system collapsed not Great Britain’s!
So HOORAY….this thing has blown up in everbody’s face…meaning it’s not the pollsters who got it wrong but the morons PAYING the pollsters to “get it right.”
SOMEBODY was bidding “remain” to the Moon all week…and obviously that wasn’t the “Exeters.” So that’s a cool…trillion…right there.
I mean I love it because I’ve been hook line and sinker Silvergeddon for going on 9 months now as silver unlike gold IS IN FACT A CURRENCY.
NOBODY trades gold because a: they’re all goldbugs b: there isn’t any gold to trade in any volume c: the notional amounts that in fact exist to be bought and sold are hilariously small and d: THE MONSTER IS ALWAYS THE DOLLAR.
The you ducky the bucky you are not paying for that screwball in gold because you’re taking TRILLIONS.
IN DOLARES
So here is a MERE 100 million dollar BOND offering and…ooops! Sorry! No Bell!™
This is in the midst of the Biggest Energy Boom in History™…so sure, “just a flesh wound on Wall Street”….now start forking over 12% on my passbook savings account douchebag gold bug…because everyone knows “sorry, no bell!” now. (H/T Gingy from Shrek)
Short Great Britain? Bwhahaha. They’ve just been LIBERATED. Ditch the VAT … break Putin’s balls, join up with a massive fleet in the South China Sea starting right now, start pouring Royal Marines into Cyprus…. sky’s the limit for GB right now.
Wall Street? Bwhahaha. You know how many shoeshine boys be yapping since February? Reeeediculus….
BRAVO Ikofenglish.
British Politician Nigel Farage Credits Pompous Obama For Helping Brexit Succeed…
https://i.imgur.com/ZsQZabF.jpgBRAVO Ikofenglish.
British Politician Nigel Farage Credits Pompous Obama For Helping Brexit Succeed…
https://i.imgur.com/ZsQZabF.jpg
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/06/24/british-politician-nigel-farage-credits-pompous-obama-for-helping-brexit-succeed/
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/06/24/british-politician-nigel-farage-credits-pompous-obama-for-helping-brexit-succeed/
BRAVO IKOFENGLISH.
British Politician Nigel Farage Credits Pompous Obama For Helping Brexit Succeed…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/06/24/british-politician-nigel-farage-credits-pompous-obama-for-helping-brexit-succeed/
https://i.imgur.com/ZsQZabF.jpg
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/c5/70/25/c570252a858a57d086e2e26384dcdbc1.jpg
The betting polls were actually correct since betting polls are based not on individual votes but the amount of money bet to win lose draw etc – in this case, money was bet on 2 outcomes, leave or remain and the majority of money was bet on remaining but the majority of bets were made on leaving, the difference being more large money bets made on the stay side while more individual bets, in the aggregate containing less money, were bet on the leave side – a case of the “big” money (often thought of as the smart money) getting it wrong
“When talking to a live person, there is a tendency to say what the other person wants to hear.”
This is especially true when a ‘pro-EU’ MP like Jo Cox is murdered by someone like Thomas “death to traitors, freedom for Britain” Mair – and the British news media keeps harping on it right until the day before the vote.
Hi Mish
I posted once before, in the early days of canvassing. I said then that we were finding a heavy vote for Leave (south-east England). I found the polls baffling as all the anecdotal evidence we had from everywhere (except London of course!) was different to what the polls were saying. If you look at London, the margin for Remain was around 3/4 million. If that number is taken from the final totals, you can see how Leave had a pretty solid lead in the rest of the UK added together. Take out Scotland and it’s even more decisive. Food for thought. The EU has not been popular in Britain for at least 30 years and many people were more than pleased to be able to give it a good kicking! By the way, you should hear the tantrums from the losing side since yesterday morning over here – funnily enough those who suggested a vote for Leave was a vote for hate have been pouring the vilest vitriol and abuse over social media against the “idiots,morons,**** etc who voted the “wrong” way. Interesting times we live in…..
When psychopaths don’t get their way, they tend to behave VERY badly.
Just wait and see how vicious and vindictive the EU Commissars will be towards Britain.
You won’t have to wait very long.
There may be something to that, but a much more fundamental reason for the “hate”, is that there is no conscionable reason why those who want to stay can’t. While those who want to leave, can. At least down to a much finer grained level than 60 million individuals at a time. Pretending one has the “consent of the governed,” simply because 50.1% of those who cared to vote on some issue way to complex for anyone to fully comprehend bothered to cast a vote one way or another, is nothing but an ugly sleight-of-hand aiding the current ruling class in justifying their arbitrary, tyrannical rule. Leaving the 500million strong EU for something smaller is good. So is leaving 50 million string nations, as well as 5 million string states/regions. Once you get to 500,000 strong cities and counties, at least there may be some reasonable debate.
No doubt
With other countries considering a referendum now that the sun actually rose the next day …. need to (attempt) put max pain on Britain … lest the other referendums gather steam.
You are right Stuki, no one is stopping anyone moving to the continent, at least those who do not want the continent moving into their country are heard. That is how it should be, you conserve what you have unless you are sure sure sure sure you are exchanging it for something better.
British sentiment against EU influence is deep rooted and goes way back, that the British actually pulled together to achieve a majority opinion, even a small one, is something of a small miracle given the imposing psychological and ‘moral’ agenda being forced on them.
Democracy is the best of a bad lot, but this result will bring home responsibility and much closer to a local level. You ‘should’ be in agreement if that is your metric.
Tony – just readin press here and this one is ‘very funny’ :
“German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said the European Union has “no need to be particularly nasty in any way” in the negotiations with Britain about its exit from the bloc.” Beeb.
You know as well as I do what is behind a comment like that – an arrogant show of power that is designed to screw with sentiment and psychology, all dressed up in a false concern and out of self interest.
A very bad start.
I think I wil be using lots of ”””” given we seem to have entered the thinly disguised twilight zone of poitical double talk.
Oh no!!!
Brexit just chewed up the ‘speshul relaishunship’!!!
Naughty Brexit, bad Brexit, spanking then oral sex for you.
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/-brexit–threatens-to-undermine-u-s–britain-special-relationship/42251370
Bam Man what you said is 100% fact.
Frustrated psychopath = cornered rat
They seem to think they should have had two votes each instead of one, attitudes of the more equal.
British are tactical voters and tactical poll responders. Who responds honestly to a poll and why would they?
I’m still completely baffled that the EU/globalist folks didn’t do more to “fix” the vote in their favor. Now, they probably wish they had called in the Clinton/Democrat machine to get the “remain” job done for them LOL. But, let’s not celebrate too much – we know the globalists will be back.
You assume they have much more power than they actually do. They know they don’t have the power, but they act in a way that perpetrates the myth that they do. Earlier this year, there were terroristic threats made against a high school in Indiana. They were posted on Facebook. It took the FBI and various law enforcement agencies 6 months to make an arrest. Six months, and at the end of the day they made it the old fashioned way…by talking to informants. All the spy technology they supposedly have and they couldn’t figure out who posted something to Facebook? Think about it. The emperor has no clothes. They are powerless and can be totally destroyed if the people ever get their act together.
Their power is exercised on a much deeper level.
Over a century of virtually pervasive indoctrination of all children, plus a massive propaganda machine coupled with heavy handed transfer of resources from those who may form the nexus of a threat, to those likely to be willing sycophants, have rendered a population so delusional they believe central banks, “financial systems”, “financial capitals”, “health care systems”, laws and lawyers reaching into every aspect of private life, gun laws, fiat currencies, zoning laws, standing armies militarily vastly more powerful than the aggregate of those they are supposedly the servants of etc., etc., are somehow useful institutions. Instead of the 100% pure detriments to anything decent that they in reality are.
So, in essence, the elites do rule by the “consent” of the governed. Who are mostly all well indoctrinated enough to genuinely believe Wall Street, government and “high asset prices” are somehow “good” for them. Rather than just cancers slowly bleeding the host dry. Until a reality check imposed from the outside, wipes the whole idiocy off the table once and for thank goodness all, as the caliphaters are well on the way to accomplishing to Europe.
@Stuki Moi
Like
I would have to agree with these comments, but may want to expand upon them as well.
Actually, the control mechanism may be more pervasive than imagined. Dennis Cuddy has some excellent and very well researched articles that comment upon this. Here is an extract from one of them –
Changing attitudes, values and beliefs were also aspects of “social control” which, like education, was an important component of the Rockefeller plan. In order to control people, the Rockefellers knew they had to have the ability to monitor what people do. In that regard, investigative reporter Thomas Lawson in EVERYBODY’S magazine (August 1904) learned “about the greatest information bureau in the world. A ‘Standard Oil’ agent is in every hamlet of the country.” Of course, it was also an important aspect of control to be able to manage what information the American people received. In that regard, in 1905 U.S. Rep. Joseph Sibley (Rockefeller Standard Oil payoff man in Washington) wrote a letter to John D. Archbold (Standard Oil’s money provider) saying, “An efficient literary bureau is needed, not for a day or a crisis but a permanent healthy control of the Associated Press and kindred avenues. It will cost money but it will be the cheapest in the end.”
See: http://newswithviews.com/Cuddy/dennis143.htm
Of course, the likelihood that many will appreciate this is greatly diminished by the effective program launched simultaneously by these “scions of the economic order” to “dumb down” the populace … please see John Taylor Gatto’s many well researched discourses … here is one you can check out –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hf2uhrszlo
(In case you’ve never heard of him, please check out his wikipedia article which mentions that he was designated “teacher of the year” and where he opined on the op-ed pages of the Wall Street Journal, as he quit the profession, regarding this honor … see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Taylor_Gatto)
“Conspiracy Nut!” you may be thinking … ahh … perhaps … but, how do you account for these quotes –
https://www.metabunk.org/anyone-care-to-debunk-these-two-rockefeller-quotes.t431/
Let me add that one other reason, i.e., that many cannot accept the ideas that the behavior of the political establishment may be completely at odds with their understanding of how society operates, is that they believe that the operators (politicians and ruling elite) do so within the boundaries of their own behavior, which is governed by ethics, morals, and doing the “right thing”.
I am persuaded that those in authority are largely unencumbered by such constraints.
For instance, St. Augustine wrote about “Libido Dominandi”, which is the “Lust for power”, and is something I believe motivates many who move into political circles and seek higher office.
Here is one article: http://www.jimtonkowich.com/libidodominandi.php
Another though in this regard, involves the psychology of those in authority. I have heard in the past that two professions that attract sociopaths (those who have no moral compass) are religion and politics.
See: https://mic.com/articles/44423/10-professions-that-attract-the-most-sociopaths#.JKPeyYElg
Here is an article, for those unfamiliar with the term –
http://www.medicaldaily.com/whats-difference-between-sociopath-and-psychopath-not-much-one-might-kill-you-270694
Anyway … the world may operate much differently than most people have modeled in their minds and understanding …
The prophet Daniel had his own commentary (which an atheist might actually agree with) on the character of those who achieve the highest level of government –
https://immortalityroad.wordpress.com/2008/05/16/politicians-are-the-basest-of-men-according-to-bible/
So, don’t think that these people operate according to how you might, in similar circumstances.
They are not like you.
@Mike
Thanks! Nice references.
Pretty much tautologically, those with the least scruples about doing whatever it takes to climb in any organization, will be the ones climbing the highest. Hence, by simple deduction, every organization; “public” or private, will be headed by not not just a sociopath, but indeed by the most extreme example of sociopathy on offer.
The only realistic check on sociopathic behavior, is the ability of subordinates to just leave, if Top Sociopath gets too carried away with his self aggrandizement. In most voluntary, private, organizations, this has traditionally been relatively easy. Although the Sociopaths, via laws, lawyers and other such machinations, are doing their darnedest to make even that harder. I.e mandatory Obamacare and it’s ilk.
What makes governments and religions especially fertile grounds for sociopaths, is that they are much more difficult to leave. So almost all realistic checks on sociopathic behavior is gone. Leading to what we have today.
Because of this inevitability, the politician and state serving serving notion, that there are some meaningful differences between “good” politicians and “bad” politicians, hence between “good” governments and “bad” ones, is pure folly. They, politicians hence governments, are all bad. Simply because any possible “good” one, will be back stabbed and sharp elbowed out of the way by his more unscrupulous peers, long before he can rise to any position of real power. It always has, and always will be, this way. For all time and place. Without exception. Hence, the only choice people have, is whether they want their inevitably bad government to be bigger or smaller. Or, if they are truly enlightened, prefer no bad at all, I suppose.
.
Never underestimate Putin’s power
and the divide and conquer strategy,
.
Nice to see that you have no clue as to what the real threat is.
Maybe your man Trump should announce how he wants to be buddy buddy with Putin and see how many votes that gets him.
I’ve heard much of the way of bitterness from facebook comments, mostly by Americans. Seems they think it’ll kill the stock markets, etc. I think they have it all wrong, but what do I know. I am glad to see that Britain voted to leave.
I’m American and I’m glad too. the self-loathing cowards who believe a one world government will protect them from evil white male bigots with guns are getting quite old. I wish history would hurry up and right the ship.
Right the ship? Not likely
I fear ‘dumbocracy’ will prevail with 6 billion 3rd worlders vesus 1 billion 1st worlders ‘voting on lunch’.
Even pollsters won’t get that one wrong as clueless trendies get swept into oblivion with the rest of us in the great western civilization wipeout.
The silent majority finally spoke up. The same thing will happen in America. Speak “politically Correct” but vote “Silent Majority.”
bingo
When Britain thrives after this it will be apparent that the EU is doomed. Already the exporters are rejoicing and will have a great boom in business. Every country is trying to devalue their currency and Britain just did it overnight.
Great Britain needs to take a few deep breaths and then go borrow Hong Kong’s playbook for their economy.
“Predictions are hard to make, especially when they are about the future.” Yogi Berra
Using bookmakers’ odds to forecast a result is meaningless as one large bet (from a voter or non voter) will overwhelm many small bets (most of whom would likely be voters).
Using bookmakers’ information on the number of bets is also meaningless’ as the people who chose to gamble make for an unrepresentative sample of the nation as a whole.
The MSM announce bookmakers’ odds in a clumsy attempt to convince the voters that the outcome is clear so the undecided voters will follow the herd
Stocks are rising into the vote and the stock pattern was extremely bearish and broke down as expected it’s your typical buy the rumor sell the news BS
Easy call stocks were bearish.. it was simple by the rumor sell the news
“The pollsters did blow it badly”
Really?
Its not a case of ‘pollsters’ being tool for expectations management?
They seem the the go to tool for Edward Bernays fans.
Pollsters, elites, politicians,and to many news sources are either clueless or afraid to see what is happening right under their nose. Maybe they are afraid to see it. The United States has turned into two classes. Those who have it all and don’t care and those struggling and not cared about.
As a side note those .1%er”s are about to lose it all as well.
This is how I see it:
* Young people have no memory of living non-EU-member UK, so they voted Remain.
* A high percentage of Londoners had a vested interest in UK being part of EU (mainly the financial and property sectors), so they voted Remain.
* Scotland (which almost voted to leave the UK recently) was OK to be part of UK as long as UK was part of EU. If UK became independent (of EU), then they also wanted their own independence. For this reason, they voted Remain.
The rest (largely) voted Leave.
Two to three million Muslims voted remain.
Mish what do u think about the chart over on zero hedge “Was this the deciding factor for Brits to vote leave”?
Coincidence
Obama going to UK did not trigger anything
Mish,
I just thought of this, you are very free trade\open markets. In fact you advocate eliminating all tariffs in the USA. The elimination of tariffs is one of the intended goals of the EU. You however were for Brexit, which most people would think is anti-free market, or anti-free trade. Your stance this seems to be contradictory. Have you changed your stance since you stated that “the first country that practices free trade regardless of what anyone else does will be a winner.” or I’m I missing something?
Brexit Question on Free Trade
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/25/brexit-question-on-free-trade/
Mish
What has happened in Greece, Cyprus, Sweden, Austria, Paris, Italy, Spain, etc. was not hidden from the U.K. voter as there are many sources of news and a a long active LEAVE campaign.
The lies of the REMAIN campaign backfired and thus neutralized the lies of the LEAVE campaign. The educated young who wanted the ability to work in the EU logically voted REMAIN. Those who remembered the Battle of Britain and what it was like before the EU, were much more likely to vote LEAVE.
The rapidly declining economic and political environment on the European Continent steadily increased the argument for LEAVE.
LEAVE voters were willing to endure short term PAIN to avoid the long term loss that rule from Brussels and Berlin would mean.
July 4th, 1776 and June 23rd, 2016 have a lot in common.
One interesting theory about the betting odds is that some clever traders noticed that those betting odds were moving stock and bond markets.
The mainstream media were scrambling to find a narrative that was pro-Leave, and this created a trading opportunity.
As a deliberate act to create disinformation, the clever traders then placed large bets on Remain with the bookies, but made much larger bets on options that were pro-Leave in the markets.
The deliberate skewing of the betting odds at the last minute might have cost tens of thousands of pounds, but the clever traders more than made up for this loss by making a killing in the markets. A few currency options betting on a fall of the pound would have made enormous sums.
Exactly why else would anybody place lots of large bets on a roughly 50-50 proposition?
There were lots of small pro-Leave bets and a few big pro-Remain bets. Hmmm …
Hi Mish,
I think you should have entered an 8th item: meddlesome outsiders. Obama is a glaring case in point. But Juncker and Tusk in Brussels, Merkel in Germany, and Hollande in France all ended up reinforcing the determination of the Leave voters.
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Meet the new boss… same as the old boss.
” Tory Brexiter Daniel Hannan: Leave campaign never promised “radical decline” in immigration ”
” It was the Leave campaign’s pledge to reduce EU immigration that won it the referendum. But Daniel Hannan struck a rather different tone on last night’s Newsnight. “It means free movement of labour,” the Conservative MEP said of the post-Brexit model he envisaged. An exasperated Evan Davis replied: “I’m sorry we’ve just been through three months of agony on the issue of immigration. The public have been led to believe that what they have voted for is an end to free movement.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/tory-brexiter-daniel-hannan-leave-campaign-never-promised-radical-decline
.
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This is also going to happen to Trump supporters.
Meet the new boss… same as the old boss = fooled you again !!
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Offering the proles false political choices is another elementary particle in the textbook of Zioglobalist physics.
Exactly! I predict the legions of Trump idiots will be calling for his impeachment six months after he is elected.
.
HA!
” Trump shifts immigration plan: No ‘mass deportations’ ”
” Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump appeared to soften his tone on immigration Saturday, saying he wouldn’t issue mass deportations if president. ”
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/284910-trump-shifts-tone-no-mass-deportations
.
Stop lying. He never said anything about mass deportations.
You and the hilldebeast make a cute couple.
“Several readers are still wondering why the odds-makers and pollsters got it wrong so badly.”
You forgot to mention yourself.
To wit:
“I will wait for the final tally, but 52-48 for Remain matches my prediction a few days ago when asked.”
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/23/brexit-initial-sample-suggests-52-48-remain/
Betting odds ARE NOT predictions. Their only purpose is to attract equal bets on both sides. If more money is backing one side, they raise the odds of the other side to attract more money. The casinos only make money on the commissions.
Most people don’t understand this. The odds are not some magic future-reading crystal ball.
The odd thing about this was that no one really even tried to make a case for remain. There were plenty of idiots saying how terrible it would be if we left and we should be terrified of a post Brexit world.
There were no positive messages anywhere apart from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptfmAY6M6aA
which was never part of the official campaign.
Similar arguments could have been made for much EU legislation but weren’t e.g. EU inspired laws have helped to make the rivers cleaner than they have been in a generation and the air is mostly safe to breath, beaches are no longer polluted with raw sewage, Theresa May has less rights to spy on people than she would like, The EU acts as a method of extracting money from London and moving it into poor communities in the north etc.
Remain were (1). So confident of winning that they didn’t bother, (2). They just love a good scare campaign and failed to notice that it didn’t work for Zac Goldsmith in the London Mayoral elections (3). They didn’t really want to remain anyway (4). Fill in your own ideas here.
I was reading on ZH that they are considering another vote on the BREXIT because it didn’t go the way they wanted it too.. Oh FFS, CRY ME A RIVER!
I don’t think the opinion polls got it wrong. They did show a swing towards LEAVE during the campaign which was also reflected in the increasingly desparate scare stories of the REMAINERS.
The big unknown was how many of the youngsters (mostly REMAINERS) would vote. The government spent millions targeting their Facebook accounts urging them to register to vote and even extended the cut off date for registration.
Most of us oldies had already made up our minds years ago about how we would vote in a referendum and had been voting UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) for many years in the elections for the European Parliament (a toothless talking shop) and were highly motivated to get out and vote. But from my personal knowledge a lot of young voters only decided which way they would vote in the last two days.
The murder of the Labour politician late in the campaign created some uncertainty about how the vote would go as her death was used to smear LEAVERS as ignorant, racist bigots.