In the wake of the Brexit vote, two issues regarding Scotland have arisen.
- Can the Scottish parliament veto the referendum?
- Will Scotland seek another referendum to leave the UK?
Veto Threat
The BBC reports Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit
Notes: The Scottish parliament is in the Holyrood section of Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland. MSP stands for members of Scottish parliament. Nicola Sturgeon is leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP).
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK’s exit from the EU.
SNP leader Ms Sturgeon said that “of course” she would ask MSPs to refuse to give their “legislative consent”.
Constitutional law expert and Conservative MSP Adam Tomkins tweeted that Holyrood had no power to veto the UK’s withdrawal.
Mr Tomkins – who backed the Remain side of the referendum campaign – said that while Holyrood had the power to withhold consent, that was not the same as blocking.
Another Scotland Referendum?
The veto threat is a mirage. What about another referendum?
Scotland had a chance to break away from the UK on September 18, 2014 in a Scottish Independence Referendum.
The vote was 55.3% to stay vs 44.7% to break away. Now Scotland is having second thoughts.
The Sunday Post reports New Survey Shows 59% Support Scottish Independence After Brexit Vote.
The online survey, by research firm ScotPulse, took place on Friday and was sent to a representative sample of 1600 adults across Scotland.
Respondents were asked: If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, how would you vote?
A total of 59% said Yes, 32% said No and the rest were undecided.
A total of 73% of those under the age of 25 backed independence, with over-65s the only age group with support for separation under the 50% mark.
People were also asked: “In light of the EU referendum result, were you more or less supportive of Scottish independence?”
A total of 50% said they were more supportive, 17% said they were less supportive and the rest said the result hadn’t changed their view on the question.
Asked if Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to stay in the EU was the right decision, 62% backed the First Minister, 33% said it was the wrong decision and 6% were unsure.
Asked what will happen to the EU in future now that England and Wales have voted to leave, 56% thought other countries would also look to quit the alliance, while 31% believed it would carry on as normal without the UK.
A further 7% thought it would expand its membership to make up for the loss of the UK, while another 7% believed the EU would collapse.
Scotland to Negotiate with EU to Remain
The Telegraph reports Scotland Will Start Negotiations to Protect its Place in the EU immediately, Nicola Sturgeon Says.
Nicola Sturgeon said yesterday she would seek “immediate discussions” with Brussels to protect Scotland’s place in the EU while warning again that another independence referendum was “very much on the table”.
Following an emergency meeting of Scottish ministers – the first held on a Saturday – the First Minister said she would “act decisively but in a way that builds unity across Scotland”.
Ms Sturgeon insists a second vote on independence is now “highly likely” in the next two years, and confirmed her government will draw up the necessary legislation for a fresh vote.
“I can confirm today that over the next few days I will establish an advisory panel comprising a range of experts who can advise me and the Scottish Government on a number of important matters – legal, financial and diplomatic.”
The SNP manifesto for May’s Holyrood elections said the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another independence vote if there was a “significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014” – such as Brexit.
Henry McLeish, a former Labour first minister, said he was now “very, very attracted” by separation if it kept Scotland’s place in Europe, and described Thursday’s referendum as a “game changer” for the constitutional debate.
Meanwhile, the SNP has reported large numbers of No voters from 2014 contacting the party to say they would now vote Yes.
Statement of the Obvious
Sturgeon: “It’s a statement of the obvious that a second referendum must be on the table, and it is on the table”.
Obvious Complications
Scotland would not remain in the EU even if it won a referendum tomorrow. Like any other country it would require a new treaty.
If Scotland was in the EU with its open migration policy, border issues come into play.
Finally, and most important, what about currency issues? Scotland could not stay on the British pound.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
https://www.facebook.com/YesMinsterYesPrimeMinster/videos/1141233072615883/
Thought you might appreciate this Mish, you are an American with a sense of humour after all.
Steve
Scotland already has its own currency it has pounds issued by the Clydesdale Bank, Bank of Scotland (owned by Lloyds Bank plc) and the Royal Bank of Scotland (majority owned by the UK Government).
The EU would not allow Scotland to join as this would have implications for secessionists elsewhere in Europe (like Basques).
This poll is about as valid as the polls conducted in the UK prior to the last general election and the BREXIT vote, in facr, I would hazard a guess that the polling company has 1,600 people it can rely on to support the SNP – so it is a device to advance a single party.
A secessionist referendum based on Scotland (re)joining EU should only take place once there is a clear statement from EU in place authorizing a subsequent inclusion of Scotland . To vote on independence in the naive hope of , is absolutely stupid , if you do not mind my opinion.
As is it gives the impression of conniving politicians out to scrape what they can from someone else’s table without being invited, or behind the backs of their citizens – I really expect a little more dignity from the Scots than that .
I used to have a lot of respect for the Scots, but it is fading quickly. If the Scots think they need a Big Government to support them, the Brits should be happy to let them go.
Yes, I am part Scots, but they have become a miserable bunch of socialist beggars. England should be glad to be rid of them.
I won’t judge the Scots for now , and sure there are issues between England and Scotland that might make some look for independence . I think England listens and offers concessions , maybe not enough , maybe it cannot reasonably offer more , who knows , but it does not punish Scotland in return .
Look at somewhere like Greece and what happens every time it threatens to walk out of EU/Eurozone even though it has supposed full sovereignty . Sure , Scotland is not Greece , Cataluña is not France , Italy is not Spain … they are all EU , or in the case of Scotland considering being.
So the idea of Scotland seeking independence based on the idea of being able to join EU I find a little sickening . I have witnessed how EU influence works and it saddens me that Scotland seems to subscribe to it , maybe having UK as cover softened its encounters . It is quite possible Scotland has been, and is, a prime objective of EU strategic ambition , after all EU cannot formulate its own supremacy without first somehow dissolving the nations that host it .
Ms Sturgeon is both a political opportunist and delusional.
EU membership is not in the cards if only because Spain would vociferously object. (Spain does not like separatists. There may be other EU members holding similar views.)
Also, as Mish noted, Scotland would have to come up with its own currency. Good luck with that!
Finally, Scotland is heavily dependent on subsidies from wealthy ofd England. Where would all the welfare expenditures come from? Also, the large and inefficient boondoggle known as the Scottish government, hundreds of parliamentarians,, etc. are hugely expensive. There’s no money in Scotland to support such a top-heavy governance system. In fact, I don’t believe there’s the makings of economic/fiscal self-sufficiency in Scotland at all.
Like CJ above, I also used to have a lot of respect for the Scots. Unfortunately, it seems that most of the Scots worth respecting for their fierce independence and entrepreneurship emigrated, and most of those that are left are soft socialists who want nominal “independence” while expecting others to foot the bill.
Let them leave and fend with the EU for themselves. Until they wake up and K-select again, England and Wales are better left without them.
Scotland versus Britain and Wales is an ancient set of tensions (and battles); that the union has lasted 3 centuries is quite remarkable, and I suspect at this point in time there could be separation without cross-border raids and wars. Some Scottish politicians were calling for another vote right after the last vote, and any issue with traction will do. Playing to their base is what the politicians do everywhere. Not that different than Dems always calling for more domestic gun control and exporting more war (more weapons and financing) as the solution to the latest violent blowback from War Party foreign policy fiascos too numerous to list.
I just don’t see what possible incentives EU can offer Scotland: TTIP, ever increasing debt in need of bailouts, an extra helping of Islamic migrants, a war against Russia, more Merkel? EU is not exactly a stable entity, and I think sand pile analogy applies (avalanche in progress, albeit slowly). EU of two years from now may not look like such a great alternative.
One of the most serious problems faced by the original Scots exit was that they were not going to be allowed in the EU. That blanket NO card will no longer be there. Naturally there would be currency and EU application issues.
The natural labor majority in the UK historically is helped by the extreme strength of Labor in Scotland.
If Scotland were no longer joined with England, England would be a more naturally conservative nation, extremely productive, imaginative and unencumbered by the interference of the continent or Scotland.
As someone of English heritage, both colonial and early 20th century I would really enjoy seeing that. Too be quite honest it wasn’t until Thursday night that I felt proud to be English again.
LIKE!
Like
A super majority of Scottish voters may very well wish to remain in the EU. Unfortunately, it I seriously doubt there is a stomach for the pain that would be required to make it happen. First, Scotland is the beneficiary of a 15 billion pound annual subsidy from Westminster. If they were to leave there would be a gaping hole in their budget requiring massive cutbacks in services. And that’s even before Scotland has to start paying it’s own dues to the EU.
Secondly, Scotland would have to abandon the Pound to join the EU. There will be little appetite amongst voters for adopting the Euro or creating their own currency (which would almost certainly be a prerequisite before they could join the Euro).
Thus, Scottish politicians will never call for a new referendum since they know that it’s just not in the cards.
Agreed – which is why England, Wales and Northern Ireland would be best served if the government told Scotland it was leaving the Union, no referendum required.
Sturgeon’s worst fear is losing a second referendum and now oil is less than half the price it was when the last was held and the then economic case was dubious, it must be doubted she really wants a referendum. What she does want is to establish ever more firmly the notion that Scotland is obliged to live with decisions it does not like that are made elsewhere in the UK. The irony is lost on her and the SNP that being subject to similar but with the decisions made in Brussels is very likely worse.
More silly temper tantrums…
France — actually not France, really Mr Hollande — stomped his feet, pouted like a 3yr old and threatened trade wars and stinky cheese falling from the skies. Then his own staff pointed out how quickly French farmers would turn on Hollande and how quickly the British could get agriculture products from South / Central America (where they already get farm products 2/3rds of the year).
Spain isn’t going to kill their farmers to spite England in a trade war either. Encouraging Catalonia to succeed from Spain doesn’t need encouragement as several others pointed out, so Scotland’s plea for EU welfare checks isn’t going to land well in Madrid.
Some Germans (read “Angela Merkel”) thought the financial community would flee from London to Frankfurt if there was a Brexit vote. Bankers looked at the positive yield spread in UK, and negative spread under the ECB and openly mocked Frankfurt. As long as Draghi or other “free money” advocates control the ECB, banks are not moving to a city where they cannot be profitable.
And today it was the 3yr olds in Scotland taking their turn to stomp their feet and throw silly temper tantrums. France has no money for their government bureuacrats, no money to bail out Greece, no money to bail out Credit Agricole — but they will find money to pay Edinborough instead? Or maybe the Germans, who are already complaining about paying more than their share, will suddenly send billions more to Edinborough?
The EU can’t stop making themselves look stupid, and getting “support” from the day dreamers in Scotland (or the media opinion polls in Scotland) isn’t going to help their case.
Deepthroat said, “Follow the money”. Clinton said, “Its the economy stupid”. Reagan asked if you are better off today after 15 years of EU mismanagement (OK, maybe that is paraphrasing into EU terms)…
How about this quote: “The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money”. The EU ran out of German money, Draghi printing Italian Lira like a drunk just underscores the failure.
Go back to the European Economic Community — a free trade bloc. That worked, and unlike the EU fascists, it enjoys public support
.
I assume we will have a lot more temper tantrums this week, but ultimately people need to eat. Economic practicality will trump fascist fear mongering.
The rise in support for Scottish independence is not only about the UK referendum. There is strong feeling in Scotland due to broken promises made by the London prime minister.
I am intrigued whether our American friends feel that it would be a good idea for California (for example) to leave the USA? Being able to make its own trade tariff deals, able to set its own immigration policy, enhanced local democracy etc.
If California wanted to break away I would let California decide
In addition, the Scots government is B.R.O.K.E.!! We’re living here for two months, Scottish friends and family educating me about about SNP’s politics, policies that you never read about in the Scottish papers.
Healthcare? When Scotland ‘Devolved’ from England they were given their own health services, and education, etc., to run. Consequently, the NHS in Scotland is/has now been run into the ground, almost bankrupt, can’t pay Drs, nurses, most are leaving. My nephew, a medic, tells us horror stories about incompetence, lack of equipment, access to hospital beds, etc., it is a nightmare to listen to. I always said I never want to get sick while on a visit to “Auld Reekie”. Ironic, in a way, when one realizes that the Scots were responsible for so many medical discoveries….Alexander Fleming? Penicillin anyone?
Education? — an even worse situation! Had dinner last night with friends – stories of the new “education” system…touchy feely, can’t hurt the children’s feelings, must make them feel íncluded in a non-threatening atmosphere, no mention of actual school curriculum, etc., when parents are called in en-masse for annual meetings. Apparently history and geography are not on the agenda, if they are it is a quick half hour a week. This isn’t the Scottish education I received….which was internationally renowned 60+ years ago. They have also introduced learning Gaelic – a dead and dying language in Scotland. As the Scots would say ‘help ma boab’. This is like the English introducing Beowulf or Shakespeare as the new language of England.
Since Devolution, Scotland has truly DEVOLVED! Rubbish bins are not picked up regularly, trash is spread all over the streets – all of this in a City – the Athens of the North – historically known for its addiction to keeping streets washed and cleaned every single night when I was growing up.
I won’t attempt to go into all the ‘Social Programs’ currently initiated by the SNP. Tax payers are screwed, but drunks, drug addicts, welfare recipients are all carefully nurtured, housed, fed, and paid a stipend…..so they can buy their ciggies and beer. You know – all the really important things needed for their ‘survival’ in this wicked Capitalistic Society they have to live under.
And let’s not forget Scottish Industry/business – there is none. Whiskey, haggis, kilts and shortbread for the tourists. A friend working for Scotland’s major gas company tells us the company was bought out by a foreign company (I think French), whose major shareholders are a Teachers Union Pension Plan in the US. Don’t get me started!!!
The Scots kind of remind me of Texans. They bluster and talk a lot, but at the end of the day they seldom have much to show for all that hot air. Best to smile and say, “Yep, go for it.” knowing the whole while that nothing will ever come from it because, well, they’re delusional about their place in the world.
An even better, watch as the Europeans have kittens, as they immediately look over at Catalonia … and at the Basques, and goodness knows where else.
I find it odd that Brits are allowed to leave a union but Scotland considering the same is considered “treachery”
So the Scots, who believe in man-made Climate Change, want to go it alone and pay for their gov’t and social programs using North Sea oil, which the will happily sell to people who burn the oil and spew more CO2 into the air. Is that about right?
And when Brussels decides they want to curb oil production to save the environment, then we’ll see how much the Scots really like the EU.
“The vote was 55.3% to stay vs 44.7% to break away. Now Scotland is having second thoughts.”
I saw part of a news story over the weekend in which some voters were presented as having second thoughts about Brexit, saying they hadn’t made an informed decision, indicating voters remorse.
How could anyone have made an informed decision, when Brussels was hiding their future plans for Britain, from the British people?
Some Brexit voters may have voters remorse now, but remain voters would have had remorse after finding out what Brussels had in store for them once the gloves came off.
There are many who would guard the rejection of EU with their lives if need be. Let it not come to that, that no disuasion be needed for those tempted to meddle .
If Scotland wants to enter the EU, on their way in, they should take care not to get trampled by the stampede of countries trying to get out!
“Poll Shows 59% of Scottish Want to Leave UK” ”
So why did they vote to stay?
As a Scotsman, the exit from the EU will reduce the tension to ‘break away’ from England, as a lot of the Independence frustration was caused by EU regulations, migration and other matters such as fishing rights being set by the UK Government as part of the European Integration of regulation, laws and employment directives, etc
By becoming a sovereign country (that’s the UK), this can be rolled back to a trading partnership with respect to both sides and differences being allowed to balance out between the UK and EU and which will actively diffuse tension by returning decisions to a more local (Uk or Scottish Government) level.
Nicola Sturgeon, knows she does not have the backing at present and needs to wait at least a couple of years to let the Brexit take place and the economy start functioning (or not) in order to determine her course of action as the Scottish Government (like the UK Government) currently runs a deficit.
Oh please….! Apart from the fact that the Scots just don’t have the economic credentials to make it in, the one resource they do have – North Sea oil, has plummeted in value thereby invalidating any economic claim they may have had even if they were to diddle their entry papers a la Greece. Then there’s the small issue of currency….Are they proposing using the euro? Would kind of make sense given there’s no way they could use the pound after succession. Again, see the latter. Given the thrust of this cause is riven with a deep-seated animosity toward their British supposed ‘overlords’, one would hope they’re not going to expect Britain to continue paying for their profligacy after this failed bid to escape has reached it’s fruition (fail). Seems to me they just can’t get enough of those EU-equalising subsidies… Either way, leaves a sour taste in my mouth.