Pollsters in Europe must be among the world’s worst. In Spain they cannot even get exit polls correct.
“United We Can” was supposed to soar into second place in Spanish elections. Instead, with 94% of the vote counted, “We Can” has a mere 13% of the vote.
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13 thoughts on “Exit Polls Note Even Close: “We Can” Clobbered in Low Turnout; Another Hung Spanish Election”
kimosaid:
The other possibility: voter fraud, exposed. Isn’t that what exit polls are supposed to detect?
Rajoy is in nearly absolute control of the media –the pollsters, maybe too?–. Berlusconi is an amateur by comparison. A huge black swan would be needed to displace him from power.
So if you exit you are to be plunged into a Civil War if you stay you are to be plunged into a Civil War too?
Those dont sound like choices to me. Certainly a sound Philosophy however. Just “throw a bunch of letters together” and call it language.
After that people will believe anything…although censorship of said “blurfing” wouldn’t make any sense as meaning itself would cease to exist.
Maybe we need to return to symbolic forms of expression in order to get our points across…”a punch to the mouth” or “a kick in the nut sack” for example.
Stabbings, roller coaster crashings, boating accidents…all of these will become part of a “subjective form” from whence even greater acts of Fiction can be inferred.
All the failed election pollsters could go into the game of gathering economic statistics. Someone needs to generate the stats for “data-driven” economic central planning, and perhaps the election pollsters are in the wrong work niche and would prove better at economic forecasting than the current crop of economic forecasters.
Why not try job swaps? Would anyone notice the difference in economic or election forecast results? Might Central Planning eventually prove superior to the free market, and election forecasting prove a suitable replacement for messy elections and campaigning?
Perhaps the simple solution has been in front of us all along, the old coin flip: heads means X wins and no recession; tails means Y wins and a recession. Of course for Spain, you need a multi-sided coin or a pair of dice.
Spain is a dying country, with the exception of Catalonia, which has Barcelona and the productive Basque people. Spain also has an extremely low birth rate, and compensating large inflows of 3d world moslems…….It is a powder keg.
If the Spanish were happy with the status quo, they wouldn’t be having a runoff election.
That was the truth going into this election, and still is. Maybe Rajoy gets the ax, maybe there is yet another runoff election, maybe some of the “C”‘s (others) decide to join the coalition just to mess up the status quo.
Or maybe…. the Catalonians can form a new country together with Scotland. United Separatists of the EU 🙂 United Separatists would be in keeping with the insanity of Brussels.
In all seriousness, whatever party / coalition that emerges is going to be really really weak. If whatever coalition tries to force feed the population with EU mandates, it will make the situation worse.
Beyond the panic selling in markets, It is surprising just how panicked the Davos crowd is that the people are thinking for themselves
We are currently in Edinburgh, Scotland as I write. Born and bred here, now an American citizen. Thrilled about the Brexit win!! Yesterday, Sunday, the Spanish elections were to be held. Sunday news programs showed people being interviewed on the streets of Madrid about Brexit and the Spanish elections …would their be a Spexit for Spain? Every single person being interviewed (which we thought was strange) said it wouldn’t happen in Spain – QUOTES: ‘ we cannot exit the EU…..we love the EU….we have no money….. the country is broke….we need the EU money to keep the country afloat’!!
We could not believe what we were hearing. The Euros don’t care about democracy, freedom or who they are ruled by as long as the money comes pouring in for their pensions, welfare, social services, etc. The whole of Europe reflects the attitude of the Scots and Scotland. I recommend Mish readers to go onto some of the comments pages of the UK papers re the ‘Wee Fish/Sturgeon” and her comments about calling another never-end-up/Referendum for Scotland. The English bloggers and indeed many Scots have mercilessly crucified her and the Scots for it. As an aside, I just watched a three part series on “The Stuarts” by the BBC produced in 2013. Ironic that James I of Scotland (the rightful heir to the throne of England/Scotland) was responsible for uniting Scotland, England, Ireland, Wales into one country. His son, Charles I, was responsible for blowing it all apart, causing civil war, foreign wars, rape, plunder pillage. And what was the critical issue that destroyed what his father had taken so many long years patiently putting together without wars, plunder and pillaging (well maybe a little bit in Ireland). RELIGION!!
It is a truly fascinating insight into the makings and uniting of the British peoples under one roof so to speak and is where the original term – United Kingdom – comes from. Much later it was changed to Gt. Britain. But I still use the acronym, UK, in all my correspondence and social discourse. I hope and ‘pray’ that the Brits have the stamina and guts to stick to their guns and give the two finger salute to the EU and the US. I name the latter because today I read Obama/Kerry are pivoting towards Germany as their next “comrade in arms” ally in Europe.
The other possibility: voter fraud, exposed. Isn’t that what exit polls are supposed to detect?
Well people are accusing now. You have PP awarded 20 seats and Podemos losing 20 seats between the exit poll and given result.
Rajoy is in nearly absolute control of the media –the pollsters, maybe too?–. Berlusconi is an amateur by comparison. A huge black swan would be needed to displace him from power.
Indra?
My initial calculation of either PSOE or C’s abstaining was wrong. Specifically PSOE would have to abstain.
So if you exit you are to be plunged into a Civil War if you stay you are to be plunged into a Civil War too?
Those dont sound like choices to me. Certainly a sound Philosophy however. Just “throw a bunch of letters together” and call it language.
After that people will believe anything…although censorship of said “blurfing” wouldn’t make any sense as meaning itself would cease to exist.
Maybe we need to return to symbolic forms of expression in order to get our points across…”a punch to the mouth” or “a kick in the nut sack” for example.
Stabbings, roller coaster crashings, boating accidents…all of these will become part of a “subjective form” from whence even greater acts of Fiction can be inferred.
All the failed election pollsters could go into the game of gathering economic statistics. Someone needs to generate the stats for “data-driven” economic central planning, and perhaps the election pollsters are in the wrong work niche and would prove better at economic forecasting than the current crop of economic forecasters.
Why not try job swaps? Would anyone notice the difference in economic or election forecast results? Might Central Planning eventually prove superior to the free market, and election forecasting prove a suitable replacement for messy elections and campaigning?
Perhaps the simple solution has been in front of us all along, the old coin flip: heads means X wins and no recession; tails means Y wins and a recession. Of course for Spain, you need a multi-sided coin or a pair of dice.
Spain is a dying country, with the exception of Catalonia, which has Barcelona and the productive Basque people. Spain also has an extremely low birth rate, and compensating large inflows of 3d world moslems…….It is a powder keg.
Oh yeah, now you see Regrexit among the Spaniards.
Same old, same old, Dow still above 17k. What’s next?
If the Spanish were happy with the status quo, they wouldn’t be having a runoff election.
That was the truth going into this election, and still is. Maybe Rajoy gets the ax, maybe there is yet another runoff election, maybe some of the “C”‘s (others) decide to join the coalition just to mess up the status quo.
Or maybe…. the Catalonians can form a new country together with Scotland. United Separatists of the EU 🙂 United Separatists would be in keeping with the insanity of Brussels.
In all seriousness, whatever party / coalition that emerges is going to be really really weak. If whatever coalition tries to force feed the population with EU mandates, it will make the situation worse.
Beyond the panic selling in markets, It is surprising just how panicked the Davos crowd is that the people are thinking for themselves
We are currently in Edinburgh, Scotland as I write. Born and bred here, now an American citizen. Thrilled about the Brexit win!! Yesterday, Sunday, the Spanish elections were to be held. Sunday news programs showed people being interviewed on the streets of Madrid about Brexit and the Spanish elections …would their be a Spexit for Spain? Every single person being interviewed (which we thought was strange) said it wouldn’t happen in Spain – QUOTES: ‘ we cannot exit the EU…..we love the EU….we have no money….. the country is broke….we need the EU money to keep the country afloat’!!
We could not believe what we were hearing. The Euros don’t care about democracy, freedom or who they are ruled by as long as the money comes pouring in for their pensions, welfare, social services, etc. The whole of Europe reflects the attitude of the Scots and Scotland. I recommend Mish readers to go onto some of the comments pages of the UK papers re the ‘Wee Fish/Sturgeon” and her comments about calling another never-end-up/Referendum for Scotland. The English bloggers and indeed many Scots have mercilessly crucified her and the Scots for it. As an aside, I just watched a three part series on “The Stuarts” by the BBC produced in 2013. Ironic that James I of Scotland (the rightful heir to the throne of England/Scotland) was responsible for uniting Scotland, England, Ireland, Wales into one country. His son, Charles I, was responsible for blowing it all apart, causing civil war, foreign wars, rape, plunder pillage. And what was the critical issue that destroyed what his father had taken so many long years patiently putting together without wars, plunder and pillaging (well maybe a little bit in Ireland). RELIGION!!
It is a truly fascinating insight into the makings and uniting of the British peoples under one roof so to speak and is where the original term – United Kingdom – comes from. Much later it was changed to Gt. Britain. But I still use the acronym, UK, in all my correspondence and social discourse. I hope and ‘pray’ that the Brits have the stamina and guts to stick to their guns and give the two finger salute to the EU and the US. I name the latter because today I read Obama/Kerry are pivoting towards Germany as their next “comrade in arms” ally in Europe.
Like.
“Pollsters in Europe must be among the world’s worst. In Spain they cannot even get exit polls correct. ”
Alternately, the vote count riggers are just so much better…………