The Dallas Fed regional manufacturing report shows activity in the region at recession levels. Conditions worsened at a lesser rate but remain deeply negative.
Wages and benefits continue to rise (for those still with a job) but prices received continue to decline.
Bloomberg Econoday reports http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=472554&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2016&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
Highlights
Dallas manufacturing conditions remain extremely weak. The production index did improve but not very much, to minus 7.0 from minus 13.1. The general activity index also improved but even less, to minus 18.3 from minus 20.8. This index has been in the negative column since January 2015 when the price collapse in oil began to bite. New orders remain deeply negative at minus 14.2 while employment is at minus 11.5 which is the worst reading of the cycle, since November 2009.
Dallas Fed Survey Details
Let’s tune into the actual report for from the Dallas Fed for additional details.
The only positives this month were prices paid for raw materials, and wages and benefits.
Wages and benefits have been rising for 79 months while prices received have been falling for 18 months. Does anyone see a problem?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The administration is and the FED are now going to say this is all the fault of Brexit and Brexit was caused by the radical right. The talking points are already pen to paper.
It’s all Booooosh’s Fault!
Amen! Brexit came along just in time to give the Dems an excuse for the failing economy.
We’re screwed again.
“Wages and benefits have been rising for 79 months while prices received have been falling for 18 months. Does anyone see a problem?”
I would comment … but don’t want to run the risk of “peddling fiction” …
Everybody and his brother knew Obamacare would cause a recession, layoffs, robot substitution, medical inflation, and business exodus from USA.
It has really? the UE rate is under 5% and jobless claims are at record lows. turn off the television and talk radio that is peddling fiction and unhinged racist idiots
You can’t talk about UE rate without mentioning collapse in participation rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
And initial claims doesn’t factor in a person having hours cut … or that if holding 2 (or more) jobs and getting canned from 1 prevents filing IC due to not being unemployed.
Oh oh oh! I believe the gooverment’s UE rate.
I believe in the tooth fairy, easter bunny, and great pumpkin too!
The 2016 O’Care tax is $695 per adult and $347.50 per child under 18 to a maximum penalty of $2,085 per family.
…
Unless you are stone cold deaf, Nick Leeds, you heard the bell ring at the top on April 15.
Pretty funny, Nick Leeds repeats the administration’s fictions and accuses the realists of fiction. Oh and by the way, if you don’t believe what the administration says you are a racist!
Keep on posting here Nick, I love a good joke.
Are you new here ? You really need an education of how to look at more than a single data point. Do some real reading on this site and others like it and you might learn something.
POLICE SQUAD………
IN COLOR!!!!!
starrrrring…..
ANDY NORTH!
Tonight’s Episode: A Wrong Turn
with….
STEVEN SPIELBERG!
Nice Hyperbole here… Wages & Benefits Up is bad?? In what alternate universe do you live in?? Maybe that is because employers are running out of people to hire so they have to increase wage & benefits of current employees (that is the MARKET working), I mean it is very hard to find people now to fill open positions – you know people not strung out on opioids & meth, people who haven’t been in & out of jail and prison, people who don’t look like they can turn into another Omar Mateen etc..
The inevitable layoffs following productivity drops will also be the market working. Or will you complain that the market has failed when that happens?
Excuse me Nick, but Omar was fully employed, working for a “security” subcontractor for the government. Maybe we need a law to keep those security agents from buying guns?
“Wages & Benefits Up is bad??”
Take the S-L-O-W pill today?
Meant to add bad when prices received drops … of course, you fail to note that part.
Easy to tell who has run/own a business and who hasn’t.
If margins are compressed business looks to cut costs … and labor usually easier to cut than fixed costs.
Margin reductions generally first come out of dividends. Only when you start losing money do you cut staff. But that assumes you can cut staff and still meet the markets demand for your product. If you could do that, not sure why you added the staff in the first place. Granted not all CEOs know what they’re doing.
Tony stop with that. The only thing that matters are people’s feelings. I’m sure businesses can feel their way out of everything without making any changes. Nick knows the way.
If wages are up and prices are down, doesn’t that usually mean productivity has improved?
(I’m trying to see if someone has noticed the obvious as to why Mish called this “bad” – some posters seem to read the headline and then not bother to read the article.)
The output component of productivity is –
“Nonfinancial corporate output is a chain-type, current-weighted index
calculated on the basis of the costs incurred and the incomes earned from
production”.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.tn.htm
Lower price = lower income = lower output
Key word is “Usually”.
Also, the “Benefits” portion of Wages and Benefits is what’s rising.
Then again, reducing employment numbers and hours at the lower end of the scale will artificially boost Wages and Benefits as lesser earners are excluded.
These blogs have called 6 of the last one recessions since 2007. Someday they may be right in calling 6 or 8 of the last two,,, if the Fed falls asleep at the switch, that is.
But, alas, doom sells clicks.
For sure when it comes to all this hand wringing data mining and technical analysis, it takes a quick mind to beat the algo’s and technocrats at the helm.
Meanwhile, multiple bids over asking in local real estate. Restaurants full. New cars everywhere. But I guess that just doesn’t fit into the Matrix?
For a walk on the wild side, GLL? SJB? Las Vegas?
Same here. Real estate prices up, restaurants packed, new cars everywhere.
I think the problem is we are seeing dramatic change in who is receiving the benefits in this economy. Folks who used to have sought after skills are finding they can’t get hired (or maybe their children can’t), and others can’t find ways to spend all of the income they’re receiving.
Some see doom, some see a golden age. Depends on who you are. The Dallas Fed surveys are heavily influenced by the oil industry. Obviously not a good place to be. But it will blow over.
And I see the same here, as rents get beyond stupid. I own, so I’m not worried there, but… Why does it feel like 2007/08 to me? Credit is a wonderful thing, isn’t it?
Inflation is bad. What we need in this country is some good deflation.
Technically any country with a zero interest rate IS experiencing DEFLATION. Public officials are afraid to call it like it is.
The appraisers of Tarrant county refuse to acknowledge the slowdown. Meanwhile there are parcels listed for ten percent less than assessed values. Must lock in that tax revenue while the plebes are in denial over stalling top-end home prices.
Help me here. The wage index was a negative month-to-month change but the trend reported was increasing. I’d like to understand the metric. Thx.