The Dallas Fed regional manufacturing report shows activity in the region at recession levels. Conditions worsened at a lesser rate but remain deeply negative.

Wages and benefits continue to rise (for those still with a job)  but prices received continue to decline.

Bloomberg Econoday reports


Dallas manufacturing conditions remain extremely weak. The production index did improve but not very much, to minus 7.0 from minus 13.1. The general activity index also improved but even less, to minus 18.3 from minus 20.8. This index has been in the negative column since January 2015 when the price collapse in oil began to bite. New orders remain deeply negative at minus 14.2 while employment is at minus 11.5 which is the worst reading of the cycle, since November 2009.

Dallas Fed 2016-06-27

Dallas Fed Survey Details

Let’s tune into the actual report for from the Dallas Fed for additional details.

Dallas Fed 2016-06-27A

The only positives this month were prices paid for raw materials, and wages and benefits.

Wages and benefits have been rising for 79 months while prices received have been falling for 18 months. Does anyone see a problem?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock