Tensions over disputed islands in the East China Sea reached new levels as a pair of Japanese fighters locked radar on a pair of Chinese fighters in what is billed by the Financial Times as a “Near Dogfight“.
The incident took place on June 17, but reports are just now surfacing.
A near dogfight between Japan and China — according to the latter, involving the rare use of fire-control radar to target its warplanes — has further escalated tensions between the two powers amid fears that clashes are growing more provocative.
China and Japan have spent much of the past two years embroiled in an increasingly heated dispute over territorial claims in the East China Sea, with both sides launching manoeuvres in support of this.
The latest clash on June 17 threatened to turn dangerous, according to a statement by China’s ministry of defence on Monday, when Japanese warplanes used fire-control radar to “light up” Chinese counterparts and released infrared flares during evasive manoeuvres. Japan’s deputy chief of cabinet on Tuesday denied China’s claims.
Both sides agree a pair of Chinese SU-30 fighter-bombers encountered two Japanese F-15 fighters somewhere over the East China Sea, where China and Japan dispute ownership of a group of islands known in Japan as the Senkaku and China as the Diaoyu. The nations also claim overlapping Air Defence Identification Zones, which require foreign aircraft to identify themselves.
Ian Storey, of the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore, said a radar lock by either side would be a “very dangerous move” because the targeted plane would have seconds to decide whether it was under attack and how to respond.
Japanese officials on Tuesday did not deny the claims that its aircraft had fired infrared decoy flares during the incident, a move that would be consistent with believing they were under attack.
Maritime tensions in the western Pacific are edging higher a week ahead of an international ruling on a dispute between China and the Philippines over sovereignty claims in the South China Sea.
An arbitration court in The Hague is expected by analysts to rule in favour of the Philippines and invalidate many if not all of Chinese claims in the South China Sea. China has already rejected the arbitration proceedings.
Senkaku Islands Dispute
Wikipedia has a lengthy discussion on the history of the Senkaku Islands Dispute.
On 14 January 1895, during the First Sino-Japanese War, Japan incorporated the islands under the administration of Okinawa, stating that it had conducted surveys since 1884 and that the islands were “terra nullius”, with there being no evidence to suggest that they had been under the Qing empire’s control.
After China lost the war, both countries signed the Treaty of Shimonoseki in April 1895 that stipulated, among other things, that China would cede to Japan “the island of Formosa together with all islands appertaining or belonging to said island of Formosa (Taiwan)”, but yet the treaty does not clearly define the geographical limits of the island of Formosa and the islands appertaining or belonging to Formosa ceded to Japan. The treaty was superseded in 1945 by the Treaty of San Francisco, which was signed between Japan and part of the Allied Powers in 1951 after Japan lost the Second World War.
In the treaty of San Francisco, Japan explicitly relinquished the control of Taiwan/Formosa together with all islands appertaining or belonging to it. There is a disagreement between the Japanese, PRC and ROC governments as to whether the islands are implied to be part of the “islands appertaining or belonging to said island of Formosa” in the Treaty of Shimonoseki.
The United States does not have an official position on the merits of the competing sovereignty claims, but the islands are included within the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, meaning that a defense of the islands by Japan would require the United States to come to Japan’s aid.
Senkaku Islands
No one would care about these islands were it not for fishing and oil rights. Now, Japan and China are close to war over the islands and the US could potentially get drawn in.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“Now, Japan and China are close to war over the islands and the US could potentially get drawn in.”
How many Americans will get killed over this?
Someone has to stand up to the Chinese before they claim the entire western Pacific and intimidate everyone into accepting it. Apparently it’s going to be Japan, since they have the most to lose geographically, including that all-important Asian commodity; face.
So China cannot spread their influence in their hemisphere but America can do it around the world. The US needs to stop meddling on the doorstep of Russia and China. It is none of our business. Let china and Russia run their spheres of influence and back off. The Cold War did one thing. It brought much needed stability to the world compared to the mess we have now.
Naval war could be interesting actually. China needs to learn the limits of its fleet. Far more scary would be the financial fallout. This could blow up the financial system.
Hate to break it to the Japanese, but debtor countries don’t get to decide these things.
Japan lost those islands back in 1989 when they went on a debt binge. Japanese opinions no longer matter. Sign your little Japanese kids up for 2-3 jobs so they can keep the debt charade going a little longer, but stop pretending like Japan isn’t a failed state.
By your logic then the US, China (private debt to GDP is worst than ours), and Most of Europe are failed states leaving Africa, most of the middle east and Russia as Not failed states and thus getting to decide how to run the world.
I am saying the history books don’t lie — neo-keynesians do.
Yes, most of Europe ****IS**** a sh!t show. They can’t even enforce rules among their own members (see Greece, France, Spain, Italy, etc before arguing). Remember when the sun never set on the British empire? If you are typing on a computer, you are too young to remember when France and Spain used to be important world powers. Austria-Hungary used to be called the Hapsburg empire, and no one would mess with them.
You should read more history books, and make fewer blog comments.
And yes — no matter what lies Washington DC tells US citizens… when we do the same stupid things as other failed powers, we end up in the same place. No exceptions.
You are not making any sense. Nor did you refute or address the original reason for my comment. I am rather passionate observer of history and not only our western rose colored ones. While it may be true the Hapsburg where great powers, there have been far more to study and arguably more impact-full powers then European based ones. The Ottomans, Persians, Ming to Tang China and Parthia come to mind. As far as great powers Spain was one before even you were born, and indeed most historians date the beginning of the end for them at the Battle of Rocroi. France began its ascent shorty after climaxing around the early 1800s leaving it open for Britain but I digress.
You’re rather brash comment besides being an ad holmium attack does not address the fact that by your logic Africa, Russia and the Middle East should decide what happens in the world because of their low debt to GDP ratios. Quoting you:
“Hate to break it to the Japanese, but debtor countries don’t get to decide these things.”
Please refrain from making blanket uniformed comments before posting, who let you out of the house?
Japan is a debtor country, with a declining industrial base, and demographics that make it even less relevant going forward.
China is a net creditor (we don’t have accurate numbers about their debts, neither do the Chinese). China’s industrial base is growing. China’s population is growing, despite the foolish one-child policies of recent history. Basically, China has a lot of “extra” males to staff their military with.
The question at hand is about how quickly the debtors in Japan will be forced to accept China’s rising power. Its a question of when, not if — and if neo-keynesians like Nixon / Obama continue in the USA, Japan will be forced to concede sooner.
You brought up Russia and Africa and all the other crap outside the question at hand — which was just an emotional outburst at being told you are wrong. Its history repeating, not my logic.
Get your emotions in check, and accept that debtor countries are in retreat. Otherwise, go apply for Spanish social security or go live in Chicago and try not to get killed.
History says this isn’t the first time a global power has collapsed under too much debt, and it won’t be the last… but Japan will be sacrificed first.
China is going to prevail. They have the industry and the population. Japan has a lot of debt. Legal mumbo only matters when the government can afford to pay the judges, and the G7 / UN is no longer able to do so.
“Japan is a debtor country”
Not strictly true; Japan is the word’s biggest creditor nation for the past 20 odd years!!
Japan’s debts are not external debts; the fact they have the word’s highest internal debt is not here nor there as the debt is held by Japan’s government and private institutions at the tune of well over 90% og GDP.. Japan is not at the mercy of foreign creditors, like the US, Britain and, yes, China!
Check you figures before talking;please.
Both nations are getting really old really fast. Japan’s fleet is much stronger and better than most realize, and I think they’re the favorite here in a naval war actually. China needs to stop pressing here.
While I don’t necessity disagree it the previous assertions your assumptions are very much open. First let us not forget Japan still has the 3rd largest economy in the world and among the best of armies, qualitative it almost par with any first rate nation. Furthermore you don’t seem to be aware the dire straits China is in. I recommend you read on Jim Chanos, Kyle bass, Mr Stanley Roach for a better perspective on economically where they stand.
The only reason China seems like a net credit country as of now is because they have not bailed out the massive banking debt that is in their books right now. A massive devaluation of the Yuan is just a matter of time. In fact they are basically where Japan was in 1989.
Ironically you mention China demographics which are even worse than ours (US). In fact it is because of their one child policy that their demographic picture is looking grim. Apparently I don’t think you grasp the current Geopolitical scene. Based on everything that’s happening it will most likely be a counter alliance aimed at containing china similar to what Great Britain did with any rising continental European land power.
China has vital maritime interests built around global trade. The problem is the sea lanes are not under its control, but rather under American control. In addition, China has a geographic problem. Its coastal seas are the South China Sea, south of Taiwan, and the East China Sea, to its north. Both seas are surrounded by archipelagos of island states ranging from Japan to Singapore with narrow passages between them. These passages could be closed at will by the US Navy. The US could, if it chose, blockade China. In national strategy, the question of intent is secondary to the question of capability. Since the US is capable of this, China is looking for a counter.
The Chinese currently are unable to break through the cordon the US can place around the exits. China is, therefore, buying time by trying to appear more capable than it is. Beijing is doing this by carrying out strategically insignificant maneuvers in the East and South China Seas, which should be considered less engagement than posturing. China will maintain this posture until it has the time and resources to close the gap. Under the best of circumstances, this will take at least a generation, and China is not operating under the best of circumstances.
China is as has been said many times will grow old before it grows rich. Changes include a substantial decline in the supply of young labor, the escalating financial burden of caring for the elderly, and an aging society with Chinese characteristics—namely a severely weakened family support system, caused in large part by China’s three-decade one-child policy. These changes have already begun to exert a powerful impact on the Chinese economy, and pose a serious risk to future economic growth, social harmony and political stability.
By the way I think you had the original emotional outburst at my logical response by quoting:
“Yes, most of Europe ****IS**** a sh!t show. They can’t even enforce rules”
Cursing does not make your point more convincing, so calm down and focus.
BTW what are you talking about spanish SS and Chicago? what does that even mean?
So “Jason” sounds like a US name, but you sound like a Japanese person…
I could very well say the same to you. Greg sounds like a US name, but you sound like a Chinese person….
War preparations are being made in front of naive citizens around the world. Our navy is posturing off the China territory. Our navy is doing the same thing in the Mediterranean and the middle east. All it will take is a hip being sunk or aircraft being shot down.
Walla you have war
No worries. Forty years ago USA shipped fifty tons of plutonium to Japan. USA has no safe method to dispose plutonium. Japan seemed like a safe place at the time.
Nothing much to fight over but a few rocks right now. No human populations colonizing the islands. No occupancy, no winner or loser possible. Just a jousting ground. Might as well lay down some rules, and have some ships and planes fly their flags and banners and battle it out with prizes and honors to the winners. At the end of the day, will still be unsettled rocks. Make it Ritualized War Games: Japan vs China would get good TV ratings.
Gibraltar is more strategic than these islands near Taiwan. The more likely war theater is the USA/EU/NATO military moves (e.g. Eastern Europe front, Syria) against Russia; where you got some real troop and missile movements and USA.gov Neo-Con War Party is upping its investments; has disappeared from the radar for some reason.
Japan has been a belligerent, America is a belligerent, when has China been a belligerant