The Atlanta Fed and New York Fed GDP model forecasts are slowly converging with the New York Fed Nowcast at 2.1% and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 2.4%.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 2.4 percent — July 6, 2016

GDPnow 2016-07-06

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on July 6, down from 2.6 percent on July 1. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked down from 4.4 percent to 4.3 percent after yesterday’s light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.25 percentage points to 0.15 percentage points after this morning’s international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

FRBNY Nowcast July 8, 2016

Nowcast 2016-07-08A

FRBNY Nowcast Detail July 8, 2016

Nowcast 2016-07-08B

Markit Forecast 1.0%

Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, estimates second quarter GDP to be 1.0%. For details, please see PMI Services Essentially Flat, Non-Manufacturing ISM Jumps Huge.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock