The Atlanta Fed and New York Fed GDP model forecasts are slowly converging with the New York Fed Nowcast at 2.1% and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 2.4%.
GDPNow Latest forecast: 2.4 percent — July 6, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on July 6, down from 2.6 percent on July 1. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked down from 4.4 percent to 4.3 percent after yesterday’s light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.25 percentage points to 0.15 percentage points after this morning’s international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
FRBNY Nowcast July 8, 2016
FRBNY Nowcast Detail July 8, 2016
Markit Forecast 1.0%
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, estimates second quarter GDP to be 1.0%. For details, please see PMI Services Essentially Flat, Non-Manufacturing ISM Jumps Huge.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Mish – can you give a blurb on how predictive these models actually are. Compare what models showed and what actually happened say six months and one year out?
Economists NEVER do that. NONE are ever held accountable in any way for any prediction.
The fish slap in the face from this post is that NOBODY can predict much of anything with accuracy. Otherwise, these ‘predictions’ would not differ by much.
People feel ‘safe’ if authority figures are in the know and in control. None are. These ‘predictions’ are no more than crowd control. Since most people are sheep, it works.
The alternative is honesty, which would reek of panic after the shock settled in.
Circle your calendar … the revisions should be interesting
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July 29 At 8:30 A.M., GDP news release for 2016:Q2 (Advance Estimates), Annual Revision: 2013 through First Quarter 2016. Web release of the quarterly “Selected” NIPA tables through BEA’s interactive data system
Again…these are machine generated “estimates” and are therefore representing of…in fact nothing. The market is moving higher on the news of mass murder in Dallas…absolutely a trade able event just as surely as the Paris Attacks were bullish. Still doesn’t pay the bills though and treasuries, yen and silver rally accordingly. This is in my view “wagon wheel money” being traded on Wall Street and not in fact repayable debts or obligations.
One cannot default to a fiction so I would argue the next best play for investors is palladium which is massively undervalued relative to the “not so random number generator” called actual gasoline production.
Any move higher in palladium prices is bullish for gasoline production and therefore bullish for real output or “GDP.”
Start small to get big imho.
What happened to the “Recession is Imminent” meme?
As we head for 20,000 Dow.
Seems to me that gold up, stocks up, real estate up, most everything up, is signaling a move out of the dollar. Dollar strength is an illusion because it is marked to a basket of even faster depreciating currencies,,,i.e. cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry.
The dollar may be holding up by acting as a conduit between foreign money and tangible assets, being the reserve currency that it is. OK, maybe also as mattress stuffing material by the financially illiterate, maybe?
A world of Central Banks striving for higher inflation (devaluation) will eventually succeed. Fight ’em if you really think this time is different, but don’t be crying about the outcome.
“A world of Central Banks striving for higher inflation (devaluation) will eventually succeed.”
Sorry, deflation on tap
Central Banks policies have been disinflationary / deflationary … you have been warned.
Don’t be crying about the outcome 🙂
Ride that Dow high fellas
Anyone remember 1929? Thought not, that’s why history repeats itself every so often like a warped record.