The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for second quarter GDP slipped a tiny bit from 2.4% to 2.3% following today’s wholesale trade report.

Latest forecast: 2.3 percent — July 12, 2016

GDPnow 2016-07-12

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.3 percent on July 12, down from 2.4 percent on July 6. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth ticked down from -0.50 percentage points to -0.55 percentage points after this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Overall Inventory-to-Sales Ratio

Inventory-to-Sales 2016-07-12

Wholesale trade is a mess. For more details, please see Wholesale Trade: Inventory-to-Sales Ratios Extremely Elevated.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock