Illinois has the worst migration statistics in the nation. Every 5 minutes, someone decides to leave.
This a guest post by Michael Lucci, Vice President of Policy at the Illinois Policy Institute.
Out-migration is a serious problem for Illinois, and policymakers should focus on curtailing it by fostering a better climate for job creation and economic growth. The more Illinoisans leave, the fewer there are left to shoulder the burden of Illinois’ tremendous debts. The sheer number of residents leaving Illinois matters – but it’s also critical to understand the demographic breakdown of those out-migrating Illinoisans.
When it comes to who’s heading out of Illinois, the largest group of out-migrants is people who are in their prime working years, ages 25 to 54. This is a troubling trend, which points to a weak state economy and the loss of adult taxpayers along with their children. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, Illinois’ out-migration appears in large part to be composed of prime working-age adults.
Illinois has lost 310,000 people due to net migration over the last decade, according to U.S. Census Bureau migration records from July 2005 to July 2015. This loss is made up of Illinois’ significant net population losses to other states (-690,000), which are partially offset by international immigration gains (+380,000). Like all states, Illinois experiences net gains from international immigration. However, Illinois’ population loss to other states runs at one of the highest rates in the U.S.
Understanding Illinois’ Loss of Prime Working-Age Adults
The Census Bureau migration data provide aggregate totals of domestic migration and international immigration each year for each state. In order to understand who is leaving and why, it is necessary to examine closely the age cohorts of people who are leaving.
This can be done by considering the population of a given age group of Illinoisans in 2005, and then looking at the same population group again in 2015 after the group members have aged 10 years.
For example, BLS data show Illinois had 1.75 million adults in the 25-34 age cohort in the year 2005. Looking forward to 2015, these 1.75 million 25-34-year-olds should make up the entire age group of the 35-44 age bracket. Assuming nothing changes on the migration front, by the year 2015 Illinois would have 1.73 million adults in the 35-44 age bracket after the 25-34 age cohort has aged a decade. The slight decrease in population is based on the mortality assumption of 16,400 deaths from this age cohort using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mortality data. Only net gains or losses from migration would make this number move from the expected 1.73 million.
The BLS data for Illinois’ 25-34-year-old age cohort from 2005 reveal that only 1.53 million of them remained in Illinois by 2015. That means that Illinois lost 216,000 adults from this prime working-age cohort between 2005 and 2015, with the majority of that population loss attributable to migration. The same pattern appears true of the other age cohorts that make up Illinois’ current prime working-age population. Over the past decade, Illinois lost a net of 12,000 people from its current 25-34-year-old age cohort, 216,000 from its current 35-44-year-old age cohort, and 126,000 from its current 45-54-year-old age cohort.
All told, BLS data show Illinois had a net loss of 354,000 adults over the last decade from its current prime working-age adult population (ages 25 to 54), with 290,000 of that loss attributable to migration rather than mortality.
The Illinois migration data make clear that prime working-age adults make up the largest portion of Illinois’ out-migration losses. In summary, here’s what the migration data tell us:
• Census Bureau data provide overall migration counts and show Illinois’ net outbound rate to other states is the highest ever at one person every five minutes.
• BLS estimates show that from 2005 to 2015, Illinois has experienced a net loss of 290,000 prime working-age adults.
• Enriched Internal Revenue Service migration data from 2011 to 2013 also show Illinois’ biggest population losses come from the three prime working-age categories.
What does all this mean? Illinois cannot fix its out-migration problem until it fixes its jobs problem. People are leaving Illinois in the heart of their working years, not only when it comes time for retirement. Illinoisans need to be able to find well-paying jobs in the local economy. Until they can, Illinois will continue to lose its taxpaying population to other states.
Michael Lucci
Vice President of Policy
“International migration gains” – read minimum wage, illegal, welfare, etc. Economic drains. Keep it up Illinois – and don’t forget to vote Democratic again!
http://www.commieblaster.com/nwo-cfr-bilderberg/index.html
“Every 5 minutes, someone decides to leave”.
Won’t just be Illinois.
And not just talking other states.
If countries attempt to (seriously) debauch their currencies or raise taxes (too high) to stimulate growth … rather than addressing real problem of too high % public debt to GDP which means cutting govt spending … the productive citizens will move to other countries … leaving the unproductive (those sponging off govt teat) citizens to fend for themselves.
> Justice Ginsburg on Tuesday called Mr. Trump “a faker” who “really has an ego” and said he had been treated too gently by the press. Mr. Trump, she said, “says whatever comes into his head at the moment” and has no consistency in his thinking. > “On reflection, my recent remarks in response to press inquiries were ill-advised and I regret making them,” Justice Ginsburg said in a statement. > > I think that you may appreciate the irony of the statement…What a brave new world we live in!! > Claude de Joybert >
Ill advised by whom, one might ask?
Ginsburg must be talking about those legion of voices in her head.
Geesh and that criminal thing is sitting on the Supremes?
My relatives are stuck in the land of Marx, unfortunately.
Condolences. Too bad it’s not the Land of Groucho Marx.
curious when you leave mish. I finally left michigan
2banana’s Rule:
Long term democrat rule + insane public unions + huge free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
= misery, ruin and bankruptcy
Which is true of all forms of government. It just happens on different timetables.
USSR about 70 years, USA around 240 years. Of course the US had much more favorable conditions.
Hello Mish. And you are moving to Montana someday, but meanwhile, you are still in Illinois. I don’t want to know exactly where you are going to live in Montana, but an approximate area would help my daughter who has just put her house in Loves Park (Rockford) on the market. Thanks. Jack j
Sent from my iPhone
>
Columbia Fall – Whitefish
Movin to Montana soon, gonna be a dental floss tycoon.
And we all know that ” international immigration gains ” are real quality folks, don’t we?
Pingback: One of the reasons to leave Illinois – Bruins In The Bus
‘Voting for a living’ causes ‘voting with your feet’.
They don’t teach that in advanced economics.
Just ceteris paribus.
Touche!
First – Hey there 2B – good to see you over here.
Mish:
As 2B alludes – I see his comments on Housing Bubble Blog often – you have to live in ILLANNOY to truly understand the magnitude of how bad it is here. The most painful component of this is property taxes. And there are so……many issues one cannot even begin to list them in their entirety herewith without going utterly insane. This place may be beyond saving. Utter hopelessness seems to be the mantra of the residents that remain.
The State House under Mad Again and Cullerton are as dysfunctional and corrupt as anything since the days of Tammany Hall. Nothing of import gets done. Unions and pensions get the life rope while small business, students, and the future are scavenged for any pennies to pay pensions.
Article in Illinois Policy from 2 days ago notes that Chicago’s true current debt is 24 BILLION dollars – Billion with a big “B”. Bond ratings at or near junk. No end in sight.
I have 16 days and counting when the moving truck shows up on the curb at my apartment and I will be one of the refugees leaving this dump every 5 mins. for good. It cannot come soon enough.
Lived here 30 years and I watch monthly as my support structure, my friends and in some cases my collegues pack the box and just leave. The slow steady stream is like the that of the Israelites as they headed out of Pharoah’s bondage.
Ha – small world!
Soon-to-be-former IL resident here of prime working age here. My wife and I are leaving next week.
Mish or Michael – If you were in my situation and could move anywhere in the US and wanted a good and reasonably sized economy (I’ll be starting an accounting firm), reasonable cost of living, and peaceful place to live, where would you go?
Thanks you both for your continued insightful analysis.
two cents from a reader…
PNW (washington/oregon/idaho) – clean & wild, w/ the best demographic/economic growth forecast in the country (population growth, jobs, major corporate anchors).
Florida – tax haven for both americans & internationals – an acctg. firm in FLA that caters to the clientele/tax needs there could do very well, imo.
Denver/Colorado – similar trajectory as PNW above, on a smaller scale.
We looked at PNW. Really nice, but they seem to like the government a lot there, left coast, etc.
Florida seems nice, and a good possibility. I can deal with the humidity.
Denver/CO – also looked here. Too expensive at the moment.
Cannot answer about setting up an accounting business.
For quality of life we are heading to Montana eventually, near Glacier NP.
Make sure you spend a couple of months in Montana in the winter. Chicago may seem balmy by comparison.
You said re: the winters.
In fact, I would NEVER move somewhere without renting for 6-12 months first.
I have lived in 25 states at one time or another.
Cali, New Mexico, Nev, Florida, Georgia=Crap
NY, CT, NJ = great places but too expensive
Maine, NH, Up state NY, Mic, Montanah = too cold
PA, Indiana, Ohio = dumps
Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, ND & SD = you’re kidding, right?
TX = the nice places are expensive
CO = still one of my favs, but home prices have gone through the roof as everyone flocks there
Idaho and Utah = also have some potential
I guess the accounting firm isn’t the important aspect as one can thrive any place with a healthy business climate. I have a friend going to the same area…I’m just worried it’s a bit small in terms of population to support a business. Looks like a nice place to live though…
Also, make sure you sit on a good Internet pipe. Attempting to do what you do by satellite or wireless is zero fun. This can be challenging up here in the NW if you are locating outside of a major city.
The Flathead Valley in NW Montana is terrific. My wife and I have headed out there for years during all seasons. Whitefish would be my #1 selection and Bigfork would be #2, followed by Columbia Falls and Kalispell. Glacier National Park is the greatest.
I currently reside in Florida, but I would move in a heartbeat to MT if not for my wife’s health. We own 22 acres in Columbia Falls. If you can swing it, check out Northern Lights subdivision on Big Mountain…..exquisite views, but pricey. One thing ai noticed after perusing various real-estate magazines and websites, it appears that a boatload of expensive MT style ranch / chalet homes were built in the late 1990’s and early 2000s. Many of these homes were in rural areas and I noticed that many were up for sale within 2-3 years of being built. Make sure you are in civilization, especially coming from Chicagoland with an abundance of shopping, restaurants, and activities. You don’t want to drive an 45 minutes to buy a quart of milk.
It is waaaaaaay too late for IL policymakers to start worrying about resources/earnings/taxbase leaving their state. There is absolutely NOTHING they can do (realistically) to stunt the exodus out of IL. The problems are so large, so deep, and so systemic that collapse/disintegration will be necessary before any credible reform can happen.
States beholden to public unions are dying a slow, embarrassing death. Illinois is in purgatory and will remain in purgatory until their inevitable dissolution, but there are decades-worth of redtape, graft & legal precedents to undo before dissolution (bankruptcy) can happen. Dead state walking.
I cannot understand why Mish insists on staying in IL. It will NOT get better there in IL during his lifetime. Practically impossible. I’ll assume that Mish has sentimental/emotional reasons for staying, but leaving is actually the best thing he can do for that state…
Who gives a crap.
Don’t like it, leave – QED
And thank God you live in a country where you can just pull up your tent stakes and move on.
BTW – who’s buying all the house that are sold when folks move out, it sure as sh&t isn’t illegals.
“…who’s buying all the house that are sold when folks move out…”
GREAT question.
If you can afford a house in Chicago and pay the substantial property taxes, you’ve probably got a pretty decent income and lifestyle. You are probably not leaving. It’s the renters who don’t have the income to pay the ever jacked up rental rates who are leaving.
I live in Florida and see Illinois plates hauling trailers of stuff all the time. Those aren’t the vehicles of the upper middle classes.
We see the same here on the west coast. Illinois and Michigan tags are very common. That said, one trip through Illinois 10 years ago, in November, was enough for me to not blame anyone for getting out of that mess. We have friends who went to Naperville many years ago, now they are stuck.
Mish,,,been all over Montana, my dad’s side of the family being from there. Western Montana is inhabitable. Central and eastern is not. Though I would NEVER winter there, I could most definitely summer on the Front Range.
Chateau comes to mind. Fantastic scenery, rural but only an hour to the big city, Great Falls.
That’s Choteau. Damned spell check!
Who cares who’s buying it?
1. They are the greater fool.
2. Make sure the check clears the bank.
3. Profit.
Good luck to Illinois to convince people to stick around and shoulder the burden of Illinois’ tremendous debts, including lavish pension promises, while the average joe will rely on Social Security and 401k savings for retirement.
+ insane public unions + 2banana
No mention of the biggest cartel of all, the government enabled/enforced/subsidized usury cartel?
One bad cartel deserves another?
I haven’t followed Mish for a long while but once upon a time he was strongly against “fractional reserve lending.” I hope that’s still the case.
One bad cartel will fight with another bad cartel.
Rather, I hope he’s against government subsidies for FRL and for restitution to it’s victims.
But I guess not to the latter since mal-investments, including people, must be purged?
So losing 310,000 people every decade and with a population of 18,859,99r Illinois will be completely deserted by 2430.
In absolute terms.
In real terms it will be a bankrupt Tejahna or Mogadishu in about 5 years.
Even my Aunt, who is a well-meaning but a ‘rainbows & unicorns’ democrat, recently left Illinois.
She told us that the tax burden (she had owned a home there) had become way too heavy. Unfortunately, though, she and her family haven’t yet made the connection of: democrats=taxes without tangible benefit. Maybe someday…. (I know that we can include some Republicans in this as well, but democrats love to make tax increases on “those people” a platform).
So many of my beloved family members, liberals and democrats all, don’t make the connection between what they say (and tell others to do) and how they live. My Aunt moved to Florida because it has lower income tax (but, yep, you guessed it, she supports Hillary/Bernie sticking it to “those other people” and squeezing more tax $$ out of them…)
Out west, we call this “Californication”
This is why California socialism must be fought everywhere, and fought aggressively.
Humor makes the best weapon.
And this is why California has an $11B budget surplus, the economy is booming, and Republicans are an endangered species. Two Democrats will be vying in the fall for CA’s open Senate seat. The GOP couldn’t get close with a Senate candidate.
People are leaving Illinois if they think that a healthy, well-funded school system is important. So I would bet that the emigrants are parents of current, or soon-to-be, K-12 public school students.
Even though Rauner managed a stopgap budget deal, he’s made it clear that he and the GOP will destroy the state and its public education system, similar to Brownback in Kansas and Jindal in Louisiana. No clear-headed, concerned parent would choose to stick around for that show if they want their children to have a shot at a life beyond high school.
sheesh – what complete nonsense
People are leaving Illinois because property taxes are out of sight, the business environment totally sucks, and union idiots are in control, seeing more and more taxes to support untenable pension plans.
By the way – how many CA cities went bankrupt? That would happen in Illinois as well if we allowed it.
Economissed = MillionDollarBonus
😀
Amazing how some people don’t make the connections between too-low corporate taxes, and how they shift the tax burden to individuals through income, property, and sales taxes. GOP-dominated states are going down the same road, and any parent who cares about having decent public schools, and maintaining their property values (which depend on well-funded schools and healthy public infrastructure) are smart to get out and go to a well-run state.
There is no such thing as “too-low” corporate tax rates. Consumers pay one way or another. In fact, it is too high rates in the US that causes US corporations to move capital and operations overseas. If the US had a flat 5% businesses from all over the world would locate here. Instead US corporations hold profits overseas.
The ideal corporate tax rate is 0%. But a flat tax of 5-7% would likely do wonders vs. 35% full of loopholes.
Mike,
Time to make it one every 4 minutes 59 seconds! Just do it! Staying only subsidizes that madness.
Hmmm…so, according to the data you invoke, ~ 30,000 people per annum are leaving.
From the fifth largest US state with a population of 12.9M.
Doesn’t say much for your powers of arithmetic.
Last one to leave turn out the lights.
I bet the mean IQ of those still living in Illinois has dropped by 15 pts in the last 5 years.
Mish – you’re overdue.