Retail sales jumped in June albeit from a decidedly weaker than initially reported May.
From Bloomberg Econoday
June proved a fabulous month for the consumer though May, after revisions, proved only so so. Flat vehicle sales could not hold back retail sales which jumped a much higher-than-expected 0.6 percent in June, with May revised however 3 tenths lower to plus 0.2 percent. Excluding vehicles, June retail sales surged 0.7 percent as did the key ex-auto ex-gas reading.
Ex-auto ex-gas offers a gauge on underlying trends in consumer spending, a dominant one of which is ecommerce as nonstore retailers popped a 1.1 percent surge in the month which follows even stronger gains in prior months. Department stores, up 0.9 percent, show a big comeback in the month with sporting goods & hobbies strong for a second month. An outsized gain, one that hints at adjustment issues and the risk of a downward revision, is a 3.9 percent surge in building materials & garden equipment, a component that had been lagging.
This report is a major plus for the second-half economic outlook not to mention coming data on the second quarter (sales for April, after the second revision, are at a standout plus 1.2 percent). The job market is healthy and the consumer is alive and spending.
We will check out how “fabulous” later this morning with a look at GDPNow and Nowcast estimates.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock