Truck shipments were up in June from May. So were expenditures.
That sounds pretty good, but it really isn’t. Shipments are normally up in June and the Cass Freight Index report from which I get numbers is not seasonally adjusted.
The best way to compare June is to prior years, and that picture isn’t pretty.
Cass Freight Index
Truck shipments and expenditures are below the June level of 2015, 2014, and 2013.
Cass notes “The June freight shipments index climbed 1.7 percent. This was 4.3 percent below last year and 7.6 percent lower than June 2014. Stores are already stocking school supplies, which accounts for some of the rise. … June’s shipments are in step with patterns that have been observed in the past few years, but are still well below the volume in the last two years. July usually sees a dip in the number of freight shipments, but the first part of July seems to be fairly robust.”
“Total freight expenditures jumped 3.9 percent in June—the second largest increase this year. Most of this increase can be attributed to the growth in shipments. June 2016 is still 8.8 percent below June 2015.”
Mike “Mish” Shedlock