In less than a month, Nate Silver’s 2016 Presidential Election Forecast has jumped wildly.
Odds of Donal Trump winning went from 19.7% on June 29 to 47.0%. on July 24.
On July 22, I received an email from a Political oddsmaker who stated Hillary Clinton had a 74% chance of winning.
The above forecast and Silver’s June projections were ridiculous.
Online Gambling says Election Odds: Clinton v. Trump is anything but conventional.
In that article Political oddsmaker Larry Josephson projects
- Hillary had a 74% chance of winning.
- Trump has 49/50 odds (50.5 %) that Donald Trump wins the swing state of Ohio.
- Clinton has 1/1 (50%) chance of winning Florida.
I find that parlay ridiculous. Hillary does not have a 74% chance of winning if Trump carries Ohio and Florida.
I will hand them one thing, the forecast was “unconventional”. But unconventional and reasonable are not the same thing.
Nate Silver Election Forecast June 29
Nate Silver Election Forecast July 24
Nate Silver State by State Forecast
Trumps odds of winning were never as low as 20%. Heck they were never as low as 40%.
Ahead of two conventions, Silver jumped the gun by a mile. It appears as if Silver posted the odds of Hillary winning based on an election in July, not November.
By now, Silver should have learned something about his Trump predictions, voter anger, voter dislike of both candidates, and Trump’s appeal to the working class in rust belt states.
Silver still has not learned this is not a normal election year.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock