The debate in Germany over chancellor Angela Merkel’s open arms welcome of refugees is increasingly vocal and cantankerous on both the Left and Right.

Support for her policies will vanish as soon as there is a major incident such as we have seen in Paris, Nice, or Brussels.

Unfortunately, such an incident is increasingly likely.

The Financial Times reports Merkel Critics Turn on Refugee Policy as Germans Confront Terror.

Select Quotes

  1. “We are definitely capable of accommodating these people and making sure they have enough to eat and drink,” says Florian Hahn, an MP from the CSU, the Bavaria-based sister party to Ms Merkel’s CDU. “But actually integrating them individually, and making sure they get the right psychiatric treatment, is impossible. There are just too many.”
  2. Sahra Wagenknecht, co-leader of Die Linke, the leftwing opposition party, said the attacks showed the task of integrating huge numbers of refugees “is harder than Merkel, with her frivolous ‘we can do it’ slogan of last autumn, would have us believe”.
  3. Andreas Scheuer, the CSU party’s general secretary says all migrants who have come to Germany in recent years need to undergo stringent security checks. “The information they volunteer about themselves is not enough,” he told local media. “Every single refugee should be personally interviewed and subjected to thorough screening to avoid a generalised suspicion [towards all refugees].”
  4. Joachim Herrmann, Bavaria’s CSU interior minister, even suggested that Germany should be allowed to deport refugees back to war zones such as Syria if they have committed crimes. Government officials insist that is forbidden under the Geneva Convention.
  5. A backlash is brewing even in the chancellor’s own CDU party. “We have apparently imported a few completely brutal people, capable of barbaric crimes,” said Frank Henkel, Berlin’s interior minister. “We must state that clearly, and without taboos.”
  6. Thomas de Maizière, Merkel’s interior minister insists is fine. “The vast majority of refugees come to us for other reasons [than to commit violence] — either because they’re persecuted or expect a better life here,” said de Maizière.

Everything Fine?

Point number six is mathematically true. But let’s let’s did a little deeper starting with the March 2016 BBC report Migration to Europe Explained in Seven Charts.

Origin of Refugees

BBC Refugee1

2105 Refugees by Country

BBC Refugee2

In light of those charts let’s discuss Thomas de Maizière’s statement “The vast majority of refugees come to us for other reasons [than to commit violence] — either because they’re persecuted or expect a better life here.”

Six Assumptions

  1. Let’s assume no terrorists entered Europe in 2014
  2. Let’s assume no terrorists entered Europe in 2016
  3. Let’s assume the entire problem pertains to 1,321,560 refugees in 2015
  4. Let’s assume the “vast majority” of refugees are peaceful.
  5. Let’s assume if the people are peaceful, there are no other issues such as food, shelter, or services.
  6. Finally, let’s assume the refugees are not a drain on public finances.

Those assumptions bend over backwards as much as possible to support de Maizière’s viewpoint.

“Vast Majority” Math

What does “vast majority” mean?  Does 99% constitute a vast majority?

  • 1% of 1,321,560 (1 in 100) is 13,216 potential terrorists.
  • .1% of 1,321,560 (1 in 1,000) is 1,322 potential terrorists.
  • .01% of 1,321,560 (1 in 10,000) is 132 potential terrorists.

I suspect the problem cases are somewhere between .01% and 1%. If we assume 1 in 5,000 problem cases, there  are about 661 radicalized migrants from 2015 alone.

Whatever number you come up with, it might be wise to double it to account for years prior to and after 2016.

Are those numbers acceptable?

Apparently they are to Merkel and her equally foolish interior minister.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock