My vision of driverless trucks and taxis within the time frame of six to eight years looks downright feeble to that of Chris Dixon, a partner at prestigious Silicon Valley investment firm Andreessen Horowitz.
Not only does Horowitz see things happening faster than I do, he envisions entire cities totally driverless within ten years.
Tech Insider reports A top Silicon Valley investor predicts what the world will look like in 10 years, when roads are full of self-driving cars.
Within ten years, roads will be full of driverless cars. Maybe within two, depending on where you’re driving.
That’s what Chris Dixon, a partner at prestigious Silicon Valley investment firm Andreessen Horowitz believes.
Dixon Predictions
- In about 2 years, you’ll be chauffeured around in driverless cars on highways.
- Regulations will change quickly because of a global autonomous race.
- “At some point, it will be seen as a national priority to be ahead in self-driving cars,” similar to the space race of the 1960s.
- Entire cities will flip from drivers to driverless all at once, and they’ll change how we live and commute.
- Within 10 years, we won’t own cars, we’ll just hail them.
- The real hold up on driverless cars isn’t technology — it’s all of us
Driverless Car City
Before dismissing Dixon’s view as ridiculous, please read the article.
Mish vs. Dixon
My vision is that driverless trucks will displace millions of long-haul truck drivers in a six to eight year time frame. Dixon takes my rather simplistic vision multiple levels further.
I think Dixon is ahead of things time-wise, perhaps way ahead. Yet, I propose he is far closer to the mark than those who think my comparatively modest vision is decades away.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
There are many problems to overcome, which will push out the time frame; We would have to switch big time to Thorium based nuclear in order to produce enough electricity, otherwise oil and gas prices will rocket. There is no alternative way to produce large scale power generation. Solar and biogen will never be enough and wind is a joke only useful for the politicians being paid off to get the subsidies.
Also, the insurance industry would have to rethink its business plan, no longer insuring individuals but corporations.
The legal profession could have a hayday with claims litigation if a autonomous car hits a human driven car – or even vice versa since the bigger payout will be from the corporation owning the autonomous.
Finally what about hacking?
What if a car gets hacked and hits a pedestrian (not a human driven car)?
What if a car gets hacked by terrorists, who use it to plow down a whole street full of pedestrians like in Nice France?
How do the driverless cars make money without red-lining poor neighborhoods? (or creating the perception that they are redlining… lawsuits and politicians go off public opinions)
Do driverless cars accept welfare stamps (SNAP cards?) — hackers will steal money like mad.
How do cities that rely on parking / traffic tickets stay solvent? Will there be a huge tax on driverless cars to pay the unemployment of bus drivers and taxi drivers? How about reimbursing the owners of taxicab medalions? And the city bureaucrats who’s side income depends on selling those medalions to the biggest bribe?
People in San Fransisco live in a fantasy world. They should focus on dealing with their homeless population and stop trying to sell these tech unicorns to “investors”
Dixon is pitching his “book”…Who will pay for all these very expensive vehicles? Oh…more government debt…What is their economic justification for individual families? Oh..none
Both Mish and Dixon are way too optimistic, given our political environment.
More than likely, the legislative hurdle is the bottleneck. If the same attitudes prevail as that which found Uber finding itself no longer able to do business in Austin, then six or eight years seems rather optimistic itself.
Big Maq,
Houston is EMI records fighting Napster or Woodrow Wilson and the Volstead Act.
A convenient, readily available, easily implemented, inexpensive, widely desired service has been demonstrated to work well. It will happen one way or another.
Frank, In the fantasy World of Tomorrow! these problems never happen. Terrorists don’t exist, either. The minimum wage is $1,000 per hour and money is obsolete, so it’s easy to pay anybody $1000 / hr. The rich are generous and their superiority is acknowledged by all. The poor just vacation on the Riviera and ignore them. Thank President Chelsea who completes the vision of the Clinton family using the $trillions at the Clinton Foundation. (Hillary was a good president for the family. Remember when they used to be broke? Only 16 years later, they’re worth $150 million. 8 years from now with Hillary as president, woo woo woo) Driverless trucks are the new underclass. AI runs all machines, which serve man. They’re favorite TV show is Battlestar Galactica.
What happens to all of the cars on the road today? Are they confiscated and destroyed? What about the loans attached to them? Are the loans forgiven or do the borrowers have to continue to make payments even though their car has been confiscated? Will the taxpayers have to repay the lenders or will the banks all become insolvent due to $1 trillion in auto loans going bad? How much will it cost to dispose of 200 million cars and trucks in such a short time? Can we even build enough driverless cars in 2 or 8 years to replace every car on the road?
My guess is driverless cars will be available for those who want and can afford them. The current model will continue for at least 20-30 years. The autopilot mode will be optional just as with airplanes. If the driver takes their hands off the wheel, autopilot will turn on. A person can set the autopilot mode and go to sleep, eat, read, or do work on their computer while commuting. The big challenge will be hackers and coding bugs.
We would need a whole lot less energy (saving would come from producing less car, more smooth and efficient journey would also save tons)
All the cameras+sensor on the road is a dream come true for data whore
– law enforcement+security (but if you got a dictator, pray you got a good one :p)
– local council (problem reporting i.e small pothole or street need cleaning and send automated cleaner)
– meteorological department (actual temperature,wind speed etc weather on ground)
– emergency response (chance of ambulance block reduce)
– disaster response (able to send require vehicle where needed and most importantly to reroute and avoid bottleneck)
– much much more can be done
We already know where the potholes are. You don’t need an app for that — just eyes. Look up from your cell phone once in a while — there is a whole world outside of Pokemon
What energy do you plan on running your daydream on? Electric cars were mandated by the enviroterrorists in California… before anyone bothered to remember they have to be plugged in to a power grid that is already over-taxed.
None of the electric cars on the road make economic sense — they are just fashion statements for hollywood celebs, like $50,000 designer clothes.
Electric engines are not essential to driverless except in the author’s essay.
if Dixon is to believed, he thinks that the next round of QE will be to turn cities driverless. That is what is meant by “national priorities”. If so, then his vision is very possible, “not ready for rollout” notwithstanding. It just means that companies like Tesla will be paid trillions to push out driverless cars that every so often go haywire and kill people in horrifying accidents.
Then the resultant newspaper articnes will cause a Highway Administration beuocracy to lock down on new entrants, locking the wealth of the next bubble into existing entrants. Those who own the companies will do quite well, regardless of the fact that those who could use the cars will be unwilling or unable to afford them.
The world is on fire and you are still talking about driverless cars and robots?
Even if I were to agree with Mish on the technology / doable end (I don’t) the coming global recession / depression will push back the timeline by years.
When has the world NOT been of fire?
During the great flood?
Considering the AVERAGE age of a car in the USA fleet is over 11 years old, this is entirely NOT possible.
No more parking spaces, no ownership…
People who believe predictions like this don’t understand why we have cars and roads everywhere. Nobody wants to be dropped off somewhere, then have to wait an hour or two to be picked up. Nobody wants to take 2x as long to get somewhere because the ride is shared.
Consumers have chosen the model we have. People want freedom to come and go IMMEDIATELY — that is why we have ownership and parking spaces. And that is why mass transit does not work, except in some very high density corridors.
For this unicorn vision to work, the government would have to force it on us. Perhaps that will happen someday, because young people seem to be getting more and more socialist. But it won’t be in 2 years, or even 20.
Mish’s driverless city of the future:
== A city full of really happy and wealthy trial lawyers, as juries will still sympathize with people who walk in front of traffic — but stealing huge litigation awards from a machine is seen as “victimless” (or maybe even revenge from newly unemployed bus/taxi drivers)
== Daily protests from bus drivers, taxi drivers…. quickly joined by shop owners that have much fewer paying customers. Low income workers don’t shop at Whole Foods and Starbucks, unlike the aloof folks in San Fransisco
== Police departments that depend on revenue from parking / speeding tickets will soon join the protests implicitly.
== Bankrupt cities that could afford driverless train / subway service already … but already decided not to do it. Now they have to pay train / subway employees to sit around all day in empty trains. Taxes skyrocket, and no rich person wants to risk their driverless car to a city full of high taxes, crime, and protests.
== Rich people fire their one chauffeur, and replace him with 10 heavily armed personal security guards in an attempt to buy one starbucks vendi grande coffee outside whole foods…. The rich got that way by noticing subtle things like: “10 security guards cost a lot more than one chauffeur, even if I don’t get mauled in a protest / crime.”
Sounds like paradise, or the marketing spew from a world’s fair decades ago.
A little dark, but you also forgot sabotage of the vehicles. And yet another race to the bottom in comfort and style, much like what happened with the airline industry. When you don’t actually have to sell product there’s no incentive to make it attractive.
I guess with everyone getting off work at about the same time then we will need about the same number of driver less cars as we have owner cars now. Or you will get to stand in line and wait your turn, you get crammed in a small car with obese smelly people and everyone has a different store to stop at on the way home, kids need to be picked up and such, oh yea do you think the TSA will keep their hands off of this one. Now you will get to go through screening before you get in one, for your own safety of course. More waiting. It may happen but I will keep my car.
That is correct. Except the kiddies will be able to whistle up a ride for themselves (using mom’s credit card, of course).
If I am right about this, then society would need EVEN MORE driverless cars than today’s cars. One for the commuter + one for all the other family members who no longer have to wait.
No way to avoid this choice. Either we have just as many (if not more cars), or everybody waits their turn. The latter model has already been rejected by consumers. Hardly anyone wants to use buses.
It took decades for commercial aviation to switch from piston / prop engines to jet engines. Glass cockpits have been around forever yet even today many companies still operate airliners with standard instrument panels. I would not hold my breath for that 10 year deadline… 🙂
Mish, my hobby is dog training and showing. My minivan is totally set up for transporting my dogs (as are the vehicles of all my friends) with crates strapped and ziptied in place on platforms with space underneath for storing chairs, extra crates, and training equipment. “Just hailing” some random vehicle would not work for me! Not to mention that rental cars do not allow dogs…..
Oh but people will do it anyway. This will lead to the “busification” of the automated vehicle fleet, with plastic seats, rubber floors and plexiglass that will end up covered in graffiti and stickers. Getting in a vehicle on Sunday morning will be like sitting in the alley behind a popular nightclub. A little accident from your dog will just be hosed out when the vehicle comes back for a “recharge.”
Or, for only 10,000% markup you can upgrade to the “deluxe” vehicles with comfortable seats and no vomit or pot smoke.
(https://newsroom.uber.com/us-california/introducing-uberlux/)
Kojeg,
Well said. A vision of some of the people I see riding the electric shopping carts at Walmart comes to mind.
What silliness. Liability alone will keep this from happening.
silliness indeed
Accidents will decrease
Insurance will rise for driver vehicles
I have proven Mish wrong on this several times.
Here the article he quotes does it again.
” “It’s much easier to solve self-driving when the weather’s good, for example, than when it’s snowy, dark or rainy. And it’s easier on highways and in suburbs,” says Dixon. “So you can imagine pushing a button on your Uber or Lyft app, and depending on the situation and location, an autonomous car comes or a person comes.” ”
You can see Dixon admits they have absolutely no ability to drive in heavy rain or snow.
And Dixon wants to propose that people will sit around all day and wait for a rainy or snowy day to drive, and do nothing on good weather days. For starters ignoring even if true You would see the Uber and Lyft prices on snowy and rainy days – go through the roof – …
I have witnessed the hype following car design for electric for years. Musk right now is pulling back on his guaranteed buy backs. The Electric car and the Driver less cars are 80 % hype and a little science.
++++ Question for Mish.
The electronic car is programmed. There is a situation wherein if the driverless car veers to the right there is a 30 % chance the ‘passenger’ in the driverless car will be killed. But there is a 60 % chance the driver in the oncoming lane will be killed.
But if the driverless car does not veer to the right, and stays straight, there is a 60 % chance the driverless car passenger will be killed and only 30 % chance the driver in the oncoming lane will be killed.
What is the program ? Is it save the passenger in the driverless car.
What if the situation is that if the driverless car with one passenger veers left the passenger will die, but two passengers in the oncoming car will live ?
What is the acceptable programming ?
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.
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2017 – early adopting trucking
2018 – Long haul trucking from Distribution center to Warehouse
2019 – My 80 year Old Mom’s Car
2020 – for hire vehicles
2021 – regular trucking
2022 – 20% Market Share of New vehicles (3 mill)
2023 – 25% Market share (4 Mill)
2024 – 30% Market share (5 mill)
2025 – 35% Market share (6 mill)
2026 – 50% Market Share (7 mill)
figure 25 Million SD vehicles on Road in 10 years
Just looked at the article. From Business Insider. Clickbait. Utterly ridiculous.Few people can even build a reliable home network and now we’re supposed to trust our lives to driverless 18 wheelers on the interstate? Or entire networks of cars on all the roads? Will they work better than hotel wifi?
Heaven help someone in a motor home who uses their microwave oven on the road and the network blanks out in that area for a couple of minutes. Use 5 gigahertz? What about the pesky range issue? Use other spectrum? Whose?
Your home router suffers attempted hacks about 1000 times a day (not exaggerating even a little). Everyone. They all generally fail because of standard features built into all home routers. Not all, I presume, otherwise there wouldn’t be so many tries from all over the world on a daily basis. Wireless just needs a password or a back door for the fun to begin. If someone hacks your car, then your car implicitly controls all the cars in the vicinity. Of course, hacking will be abolished in the future? The chips inserted in everyone’s brain will not permit that kind of behavior?
Oh yes, in maybe 10 years some imaginary technology will exist that fixes all the problems. We’ll all have gigabit home internet by then, right? And it will be almost free.
You can tell who doesn’t know much about a given technology when they make fanciful pronouncements about how it will work in a couple of years. It’s easy to look smart if you’ve got a live one in the audience.
Is this an April’s fool joke of some kind?
You miss 100% of the unlocked doors you don’t try.
That said, I’ll wait for self-driving cars OS 3.1 or better.
Can I keep my uncle’s Red Barchetta anyway?
One thing he said is in his article which tells me the whole idea is his version of utopia, saying they will build more parks when they have room. They will probably fill the space with high rise housing to pack more people into already crowded cities.
My town cannot pay for the parks they have now. They are not well maintained. In rural areas…. Few people use a park. The park is my back yard.
North America was built on cars for personal use. Having your own car to travel anywhere you wish is the ultimate in our expression in freedom. These new driverless cars will be resisted not only by people but by big business that has way too much to lose in this game.
Mattson, you are clearly over 30 years old. Your vision of Americans on the open road is dead.
The largest generation in American history wants their hands on a cell phone, not a steering wheel. They won’t see a traffic light, the road, or the landscape until the car stops and texts them to get out.
I have two boys 17 and 20… Let me tell you that the “Freedom” thing you get from driving your own car is very alive and well.
So yes, you are over 30.
I don’t know your boys, but in most cases I think a correction is due.
“Let me tell you that the Freedom thing you get from driving your own car is very alive and well.”
should be
“Let me tell you that the Freedom thing you get from convenient transportation without parental oversight is very alive and well.”
Also, as a parent you should consider the benefit you get from autopilot when those Freedom loving boys go drinking with keys in their pockets.
Every day, 28 people in the United States die in motor vehicle crashes that involve an alcohol-impaired driver. This amounts to one death every 53 minutes.1 The annual cost of alcohol-related crashes totals more than $44 billion.2
Thanks for a sensible comment
And what about truckers falling asleep?
Pols in my low population density metro area are double-timing to get bond money for already needless commuter rail before driverless cars completely obsolete them.
Why would I walk/drive to a dirty public rolling trailer with frequent stops to not quite where I want to go if I could Uber someone’s otherwise idle driverless Prius to exactly where I want to go in quiet privacy?
IMO:
Driverless cars plus Uber raises private car utilization rate and lowers price by competition.
When the same pols tax, fee and license it beyond reason otherwise honest citizens will cheat just as they cheat on highway speeding limits, small project building permits and underage drinking,
It depends on how quickly Global Dimming accelerates.
More stupid people make for an easier hurdle rate for smart cars to take over driving from them.
Zoom Zoom becomes ZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZ
With all the talk of driverless this and driverless that, robots and computer/software doing our jobs. I haven’t seen anything to explain what those that are displaced are going to do. Or more specifically how long it would take these people to find employment, after having been sacked by a machine. and even if/when they do find re employment how they’ll earn compared to their old job, IMO usually those people earn less.
This is a point totally ignored by those salivating at the great and glorious future for mankind.
Personally, I do not look forward to a future where I’m not driving my car, unless I’m physically unable to.
Mish, you have surmised that you and your blog would be safe. But all you need is a computer and the right algorithms.
Mish isn’t safe, because he doesn’t own any of his content. He cuts and pastes other people’s reporting and opinions. There are attempts being made to outlaw this. It’s probably hidden in the TPP somewhere.
Average car loan averages 67 months. Self-driving tech might be available in 2 years, but most of us will be driving around in cars we’re still paying for.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/06/01/new-car-loans-term-length/28303991/
There are still plenty of people running Windows XP on Core2 Duo laptops.
Heeeeyyy, don’t knock XP.
To me it is the last of MS OS that worked.
And dual core.. ha ha ha, my netbook is happily single also.
But my phone, now that is something else, and I rarely use it as a phone.
Maybe there will be something driverless cars do replace… pets or something.
I have to admit … every time Mish has one of these posts … my mind wanders to …
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/bb/bb/30/bbbb30ba32438e1d33035997b2eff0cf.jpg
Personally my thoughts get steered towards the somewhat cruder R&D world, civilian missile jockeys and so on….
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s–7UTnbl7b–/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/18n2cyeg0pb1cjpg.jpg
LMAO!
Is that, what, the February 1951 edition?
What about the jet packs that we’re going to strap on like a canvas backpack and then rocket off to wherever. Meanwhile, a whole lot of badly needed research dollars won’t get to the places it needs to go to find cures for cancer, AIDS, Alzheimer’s , ALS, etc. and the timeless idea of currency debasement continues to weather attacks against it since the days of Ancient Greece.
There is NOTHING new under the Sun, just new promoters seeking out the newly gullible.
Has anyone noticed the FAA just crapped all over Amazon’s drone delivery dreams? A drone must be within sight of a human at all times, and that human controller must take training every 24 months.
Did you really think dot gov would forget planes were used as weapons, and let anybody just drop “packages” everywhere?
Fully driverless cars will face the same hurdles. Illegal to use in rain, snow and off main drags that are well mapped. Absolutely forbidden ever on gravel/dirt roads that are not mapped.
Testing is moving forward in Britain.
We already have “dtiverless tech” when it comes to freight. Its called “a Railroad” and yes….it’s a hybrid diesel engine too.
For a Class A truck to be fully autonomous it would have to drive VERY slow (15 mph max.) There are too many variables for a fully articulated vehicle to “compute” in order to take the human off from behind the (steering) wheel.
That’s not true of a garbage truck though.
And garbage trucks in many places have fully converted over to dual fuel diesel/natural gas.
That means a lot fewer fuel trucks on the highway already….and in a big way and obviously much cheaper fuel.
The Federal Government will still use “drivers” to deliver the mail. They will cover every address in the entire USA…whether you want the mail or not.
That vehicle contract is for 200,000 vehicles and is currently down to 7 contenders and will be decided next year.
Drones cannot compete with that but it should be mildly interesting to see what the USPS decides upon.
Two years ago only the idea of a Tesla like autopilot system was seen as a “2040 at the earliest”. I think you are absolutely correct with regards to big riggs, first they drive slowly (generally) and mostly over highways. There is an immediate and important shortage of drivers. As for the general public, in fact, aside for a small number of “petrol heads” most people are either (a) stuck in traffic, or (b) looking for a parking space. For those the idea of a Uber like self driving car is going to be a real plus. Already the arrival of Uber in a new city has a massive impact on how people use cars…
Old fashion cars will be around for a decade or two still, but more and more autonomous vehicles will take over the roads. The reality is driving is borring, I don’t drive because I want to, I do so because I must.
I moved into the city center to reduce my driving. Today, I walked to work (20 minutes) that change removed the stress from driving from my daily life. In fact, for most people driving is not something we look forward to do.
“I don’t drive because I want to, I do so because I must.”
Stop kidding yourself. Walk to work like that in bad weather, carrying a brief case, lap top, or even just your lunch. Holding an umbrella in one hand. Not impossible, but unpleasant.
Now try the grocery store. Impossible to carry even a few days worth of supplies. Absolutely no heavy cans or bottles. No frozen foods that thaw out on the way. No heavy bags of rice or pasta.
When I lived in the city the shopping carts were used the whole way home. I understand that years later the stores didn’t want to pay people to round up the carts so they installed breaking systems that tripped if the cart went too far away from the parking lot.
when they can handle 6″ of unplowed snow on black ice in the middle of a blizzard at oh dark thirty, in small town usa, carrying my personal emergency kit, then I’ll think about it.
until then, furgetaboutit
Fully automated trucks will handle black ice and snow far better than humans.
100% confident of that
Agree. Laser beam headlights will fix the black ice problem. Coming in 2021. Prototype chip in 2017 CES, made in China.
Yep, and chips in credit cards ought of just about stop fraud in it’s tracks.
Credit card fraught is rampant and responsible users with 800+ credit scores must still accept 15% interest charges to help pay for it.
When I need a sump pump and associated plumbing right away, I can’t do mail order. I can’t call the stores because they don’t have enough labor to answer the phone unless you want to be on hold for 5 minutes. If you think local hardware stores have up-to-the-minute inventory counts on their web sites, you don’t understand the guts of how IT database systems really work.
You’re going to want a vehicle that you can use within 20 second’s notice – not five minutes. You’re going to have to schlep from store to store, you’re going to need a large enough vehicle waiting for you to haul all the stuff you need for your emergency project.
The number of personally-owned vehicles will shrink by over 50%, in part because people simply can’t afford the car payments and insurance and don’t need the . But the idea that over 80% of the market is going to be hailed rides sound like the dreams of a central planner.
Well, you could go on-line, order the parts you need, and the appropriate car show up at the businesses. The businesses workers put the parts in car and deliver them to you. Probably a lot faster than schlepping around in your own car to different places and a heck of a lot cheaper.
You’ve obviously never replaced a sump pump in an emergency.
Obviously. 🙂
Replace the humans with non-polluting robots and we are good to go.
As the resident pinko-commie, I think this whole thing works best as a public service, similar to bus service, but a thousand times better. You could put a small parking area within 10 – 15 minutes walking time of most humans in an urban/suburban area. You walk up, jump in a car, swipe your iWatch for payment and tell the car where you want to go, and it takes you there.
A computer algorithm tracks where it is best to place the car after it drops you off for the next user in order to maximize resource availability. A camera tracks you to make sure your being car friendly. Any weirdness and you’re not allowed in a second time without some type of administrative override.
The central system is constantly moving cars to where they will most likely be needed while weighing against power requirements.
It should be run like a utility, not directly by the local government. Like your local phone or electric service, not like your local bus service. The local pols might sit on rate setting committees, but should not have direct operational control. The system should be set up to pay its own costs. The poor can still ride the bus.
And I can finally turn my garage into my motorcycle maintenance and showcase facility.
There will be a long period of trials and formats, but eventually I think no driver will be standard… decades though.
The local bus service USED to be independent. Then governments decided they knew best what the prices should be, and all the independent mass transit companies went bankrupt and were taken over by government. Decades later they’re all still bankrupt of course.
Agreed. Which is why I think it should be run more like a regulated utility than a government agency.
Reminds me of the Movie Carrie.
Driverless cars
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/05/cars 3.jpeg
https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTxUDia5I6rLCJcWG0i6ETtrpVU2y29hd2d88rOX5iogtxiagLK
The issue I see is that driverless cars will not be autonomous cars. They will inevitably lead to a centralized authority and power, and concomitant abuse.
Simple scenario – police need to block road due to accident/robbery/terrorism. Autonomous cars start piling up like lemmings. Somebody says, “We should pass a law that they all should listen to the same network (like Onstar) so they can travel around the block.” (central communications) Smarter person says, “I’ll do you one better, let’s make sure we can make them all do the same thing (drive no closer than 1 mile).” (Central communications and standard algorithms) Someone else, “Even better, let’s make sure we can simply control where they go during an emergency – it’s for safety!” (Central communications and direct control)
Result? Now the police can stop all cars in an area to search for criminal suspects, like they did in Denver and Boston. Or order all cars to evacuate an area, even though the one car is taking a woman to check on her sick mother, etc, etc.
Authoritarian government loves to restrict free movement – for safety! The abuse could be endless – I wouldn’t want it, but others may – for safety!
I don’t know about your town. But my town is already having problems paying for the parks it has. I live in a rural area. About 32 minutes from a large city. Nobody uses uber, lyft or the rail system. Because it is currently to inconvenient, time consuming and expensive to use in a rural setting. The rail use is way down over the last couple years because it’s to inconvenient and eats to much time. Hail a car out here and it takes 20-45 minutes for a car to arrive. I also do not wish to pay the current 100 bucks plus for one round trip into the city. I can be from point A to point B, Before the Uber arrives at point A. If you are a farmer, rancher or soccer mom. All the stuff you carry in your vehicle that makes your day to day routine comfortable. Would be a nightmare to haul around. Just imagine trying to get 2 child seats, stroller, diaper bag, purse in and out of the car you hailed. Yes, it can be done. But it’s not very convenient. Another issue for rural people like me. I know that the closest store is 15 minutes away( 30 minutes round trip). So I carry those little things I need from time to time in my car. Without having to preplan each step of my day. Because I cannot stop and grab it at my local store 2 minutes down the road. Like someone else brought up, I really do not like using a car that someone just left food wrappers, mud, graffiti or a dirty diaper in. The US rail system has been trying to do this for thirty years. Even with a goverment mandate that has been pushed back countless times. And billions of dollars later. It still does not work. If a train system that has 2 tracks for sometimes hundreds of miles. Is much less complicated than a drive A couple miles from my house would be. Still does not work. How do we really expect an autonomous car to work in such a short time span. Living in a rural setting I can see how great it world be to head to the city and be able to do whatever I need on the way. While the car takes control. I just do not see it happening in the next decade.
Anyone who thinks “we” will just be “hailing”: cars in a few years; standing around with our 3 carseats, strollers, skis, coolers etc.; has about as much credibility as the rest of the “got rich by taking a cut off of distributing free money from the Fed” crowd.
Drink SAFELY outside the home.
Send your car to pick up your kids at school while you work another hour.
Deliver a bag of sugar from your pantry to your mother-in-law across town without leaving home.
Drive itself home from an airport.
Fly to another state and have your own car show up at the hotel a few days later.
Sleep in the car fully reclined while driving 24 hrs straight at the speed limit Washington to Houston.
The benefits are too huge to ignore. You might not want it now, but eventually you will.
I want what you guys are trying to sell. But as someone that has worked in automation for a long time. See millions in machines fail daily and wait for the tech because of one little problem the stumped it. I do not see it happening as fast as you guys do. I sure hope it does… I drove to my parents house earlier. There was the group of quail and two rabbits in my driveway. I had to get around a car that crossed the road right in front of me. A piece of pallet with nails in it, part of a tire. A dog that crossed to road unexpectedly. And a guy pulled over changing a tire that stepped back into the roadway. Then I turned onto another road and found a black filled trash bag laying in the center of the road. Then to top it off a farmer irrigating, had flooded the road. Someone was stalled out just past it. This was all in 5 miles. I wondered what the world was coming to. But these are all things I was able to get around with ease. While not causing any harm to anyone else. I doubt Mr robot would of done so well. I could see it going right over something and getting a flat. Or wrecking trying to get around the mess I saw today. Or how about the flying pipe that came off a truck on my way down the freeway last week. If I had not went around it. It would of went right through me. Last year There was a storm. A tree came down right in front of me. I do not know if Mr robot would of got thru that unscathed. Or had the saw in the truck to cut the tree in a couple places and go on. It would of sat in the blowing wind and rain. Waiting for the tech to come and save it.
Yes all of that highly on interstate highways
And please don’t forget runaway baby strollers,hot air balloons,men with pitchforks, and 80 year old women on roller skates
And also note 8,000 accidents caused by such during Googles 1.5 million miles driven
I was told in 1995 by a senior manager in a prestigious consulting firm that internet is this wacko thing that college kids tinker around and cannot be used for selling books. Nobody is going to challenge this massive infrastructure for selling books.
Now for the auto cars story –
1. This automation will create auto driving magic lands and manual driving ghetto. Don’t believe me – ask your friendly neighbor who doesn’t have FIOS.
2. From point 1, there will be roads that will be marked exclusive for auto drive only. Go to any suburb and see that for yourself. Put a pavement for all roads in your township with $20 million dollars in additional taxes or get a tax credit by dedicating your entire road infrastructure for self driving cars – I know what I’ll pick.
3. Auto driving cars will not need a car seat since it will not drive thru a ghetto. Other cars will be “polite” around a child carrying auto.
4. Self driving car infrastructure will be funded by a tax from your income and suddenly you think, why am I owning a car when a self driving car for which I am partially paying for can ….? Look at your cable tv bills and why the hell you haven’t switched to Netflix.
5. Self driving autos will be designed to be small discussion rooms. Imagine mobile offices. There will be a need for a very high speed network infrastructure for auto to auto communication – not for traffic control but for business meetings.
6. auto to boat to auto – Amphibious autos will be in vogue. Why not use the water infrastructure in big cities for self driving “Ducks”. I’m not even going to venture auto to drone to auto.
I’ll add more Mish. This is definitely on the horizon of all auto manufacturers.
For the folks who think this is all a pipe dream –
– China and Japan have a bullet train infrastructure that is paid for in Unsound money.
– The next wave will be America blowing cash on internal infrastructure projects will tax credits up the wazoo and car manufacturers lining up to the hill.
– Jobs managing this infrastructure will show up as “onshoring” opportunities in the millions.
I’ll add more Mish. This is definitely on the horizon of all auto manufacturers.
Please don’t bother with more stupidity
Mish
Thanks Mish. You are getting in that line of old geezers who rebuff out of the box ideas – which are bound to be stupid since they are not in your box!
Even if the US regulatory and legal processes attempt to slow driverless vehicles, other countries and cities will adopt (ala speed trains) because it will enhance their economies and lifestyles. I agree that it will arrive sooner than most think.