This election is quite likely to come down to which party is more motivated to vote for someone they do not like.

For the first time in Gallup polls, Trump’s Image on Par With Clinton’s, at an equally poor 58% unfavorable rating.

Trump Hillary Ratings2

The numbers for both candidates, based on interviewing conducted July 18-25, are 37% favorable and 58% unfavorable. In all previous Gallup updates stretching back to last July, Clinton’s net favorable has been higher than Trump’s.

When the data from Saturday, Sunday and Monday are isolated, the numbers are even slightly more in Trump’s favor — 37%/58% favorable/unfavorable, compared with Clinton’s 36%/59%. In other words, there is no evidence through Monday night that Trump is losing his image gains from his Cleveland convention.

At this point, we can say that although Americans’ views of the Cleveland convention were not at all positive after it ended, the underlying trend data show that over the last week or so, Trump has managed to reach a milestone in his campaign: His image among Americans is now identical to that of his opponent.

Trend Favors Trump

This trend favors Trump, perhaps strongly so.

  1. Bernie supporters feel disenfranchised and many of them will sit this election out, totally disgusted with the mess.
  2. Trump may lose some of the warmonger vote to Hillary but will more than make up for it by picking up disgruntled blue collar workers who blame Mexico and China for stealing their jobs.

Good Riddance

Dave Stockman reports Neocons Lining-Up For Hillary—–Good Riddance!

AS HILLARY CLINTON puts together what she hopes will be a winning coalition in November, many progressives remain wary — but she has the war hawks firmly behind her.

“I would say all Republican foreign policy professionals are anti-Trump,” leading neoconservative Robert Kagan told a group gathered around him, groupie-style, at a “foreign policy professionals for Hillary” fundraiser I attended last week. “I would say that a majority of people in my circle will vote for Hillary.”

As the co-founder of the neoconservative think tank Project for the New American Century, Kagan played a leading role in pushing for America’s unilateral invasion of Iraq and insisted for years afterward that it had turned out great.

Despite the catastrophic effects of that war, Kagan insisted at last week’s fundraiser that U.S. foreign policy over the last 25 years has been “an extraordinary success.”

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s know-nothing isolationism has led many neocons to flee the Republican ticket. And some, like Kagan, are actively helping Clinton, whose hawkishness in many ways resembles their own.

The event raised $25,000 for Clinton.

Good Riddance Indeed

Had Trump chosen a more middle of the ground stance on Abortion (is there still a chance), he would pick up many more independent voters who now have the make the unpalatable choice between abortion and war.

No doubt many think: Can we please have someone else?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock