This election is quite likely to come down to which party is more motivated to vote for someone they do not like.
For the first time in Gallup polls, Trump’s Image on Par With Clinton’s, at an equally poor 58% unfavorable rating.
The numbers for both candidates, based on interviewing conducted July 18-25, are 37% favorable and 58% unfavorable. In all previous Gallup updates stretching back to last July, Clinton’s net favorable has been higher than Trump’s.
When the data from Saturday, Sunday and Monday are isolated, the numbers are even slightly more in Trump’s favor — 37%/58% favorable/unfavorable, compared with Clinton’s 36%/59%. In other words, there is no evidence through Monday night that Trump is losing his image gains from his Cleveland convention.
At this point, we can say that although Americans’ views of the Cleveland convention were not at all positive after it ended, the underlying trend data show that over the last week or so, Trump has managed to reach a milestone in his campaign: His image among Americans is now identical to that of his opponent.
Trend Favors Trump
This trend favors Trump, perhaps strongly so.
- Bernie supporters feel disenfranchised and many of them will sit this election out, totally disgusted with the mess.
- Trump may lose some of the warmonger vote to Hillary but will more than make up for it by picking up disgruntled blue collar workers who blame Mexico and China for stealing their jobs.
Good Riddance
Dave Stockman reports Neocons Lining-Up For Hillary—–Good Riddance!
AS HILLARY CLINTON puts together what she hopes will be a winning coalition in November, many progressives remain wary — but she has the war hawks firmly behind her.
“I would say all Republican foreign policy professionals are anti-Trump,” leading neoconservative Robert Kagan told a group gathered around him, groupie-style, at a “foreign policy professionals for Hillary” fundraiser I attended last week. “I would say that a majority of people in my circle will vote for Hillary.”
As the co-founder of the neoconservative think tank Project for the New American Century, Kagan played a leading role in pushing for America’s unilateral invasion of Iraq and insisted for years afterward that it had turned out great.
Despite the catastrophic effects of that war, Kagan insisted at last week’s fundraiser that U.S. foreign policy over the last 25 years has been “an extraordinary success.”
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s know-nothing isolationism has led many neocons to flee the Republican ticket. And some, like Kagan, are actively helping Clinton, whose hawkishness in many ways resembles their own.
The event raised $25,000 for Clinton.
Good Riddance Indeed
Had Trump chosen a more middle of the ground stance on Abortion (is there still a chance), he would pick up many more independent voters who now have the make the unpalatable choice between abortion and war.
No doubt many think: Can we please have someone else?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Mish, I don’t by the polls. I think Trump is far ahead. It a similar to the Britexit movement.
Right Tony.
Gallup has been a “cooked” bunch of numbers polls for the longest (decades) now.
To quote John Kenneth Galbraith on economist’s opinions, which will work perfectly for pollsters, always ask: “WHO’S PAYING THEM THE MONEY!”
Gallup is as bad as Nate Silver.
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fGLSWGLGTlo/VsMrR_Syw2I/AAAAAAAAD0k/Y6tafLKpju4/s640/Cartoon%2BPoll%2BDancing.jpeg
Surprise Fail – Reuters Announces Poll Changes To Help Lift Hillary Clinton…After Reuters polling showed a 17 point (two week) swing to benefit Donald Trump something urgently needed to be changed….As a result, Reuters/Ipsos is amending the wording of the choice and eliminating the word “Neither,”…So why the need to switch and correct now?.. Well, as Reuters openly admits, they need to help Hillary Clinton….
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/07/29/surprise-fail-reuters-announces-poll-changes-to-help-lift-hillary-clinton/
Clinton Kaine cancel Ohio rally – Only 3 or 4 dozen people attend Clinton Kaine rally in PA.
https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/clinton-kaine-pa-1-mitchell-tweet.jpg?w=876
As we move closer to election day Donald will pull away from Hitlery in the polls. Otherwise when Donald beats Hitley by 5+ percentage points on Nov 08 and the polls have Hitlery ahead by that same amount no one will believe the polls anymore.
This is the dilemma that Nate Silver may have created for himself. When a pollster loses his or her credibility in the eyes of the public it matters not how loud they scream – no one listens.
There’s nothing worse than ostracization for those who cling to the public’s approval.
Problem is that “MOST” people would not agree with you since Hillary picked Paul Ryan as her running mate… and yes, think about it, we are really dealing with mostly stupid people:
Polls, like the statistics from the US Labor Department, CBO, SSA, and the Fed show exactly what they want them to. Made As Instructed.
It is a good headline to act as “click bait” however.
If 58% of Americans want “someone else” why don’t they vote for someone else? There are other options.
Unfortunately for Johnson, and America, unfavorable trumps (or perhaps Trumps…) Unknown.
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2012/04/18/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-0418-lateFAV1/fivethirtyeight-0418-lateFAV1-blog480.png
i have feeling Hillary’s campaign is in full meltdown mode. They are throwing around words like treason. It’s sounds very desperate to me.
I don’t care what the say on TV; Bernie’s supporters are furious. My take is a few will go to Trump out of spite; a few to Jill Stein. for ideological reason and the large majority will just stay home.. They have been completely disenfranchised.
There was a vocal dissent going on today… over Kaine. They fixed it though. They turned the music way up. This election is way different because the democraps are talking into the mainstream media microphones and the people are reading sources that detest Clinton and the entire neocon crowd. Mainstream media should just figure out what they want on their tombstone and we should be worrying about what the elites plan to do with the free exchange of ideas over the web. Our days are probably numbered by language in TPP.
The whole Hilary Campaign is coming down to scaring enough Bernie supporters sufficiently witless about Trump, so that they hold their nose and vote “against” him.
Pretty much a mirror Image of how the GOP was stuck running campaigns for RINO McCant and “I understand the plight of auto workers, since I’ve bought a lot of Cadillacs” Romney. And we all saw how well that turned out……
This pretty much says it all… Found it on Zerohedge.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/07/25/20160725_DNC3.jpg
Where did 2012 go? NY Times couldn’t print it.
So there is a realistic chance that the Tea Party and Communists get more popular votes than Trump and Crooked Hillary? That would basically imply the US is about to have a 2nd civil war.
Donald and Hitlery are unlikable (‘unfavorable’) for completely different reasons.
Donald speaks the truth and oftentimes the truth rubs people the wrong way. This is what makes him incredibly likable to me. The total opposite of what we’ve been conditioned to expect from a politician.
Hillary is a criminal who is above the law. Nobody likes ‘inequality under the law’ in America. The reasons Hillary is unlikable have no redeemable value.
There’s your difference.
LIKE
I have to disagree with that. Speaking the truth has nothing to do with reasons for disliking Trump. His demeanor, his knack for saying outrageously wrong things and refusing to back track, and his ongoing praise for dictators are all scary, and none of them have anything to do with speaking the truth. I do agree with Trump on many issues, such as the wall. If you don’t have secure borders, and you aren’t willing to deport illegals, you don’t and cant have an immigration policy at all. You have to start with secure borders, and once you have that, you can decide on an immigration policy.
I do think Trump will most likely win, based on the trends in the polls, all of which have shown a huge swing from +Clinton to +Trump in recent weeks, and I can’t see that trend reversing. I’m just contemplating what to do about investments with us on the brink of the massive depression that we are about to see. As it becomes more obvious that Trump will win, watch the market start to tank soon.
“Outrageously wrong things”
To others, those things are true.
“Refusing to back track”
You mean apologize? That’s why he’s going to win. Apologizing means accepting guilt. You can do anything you want to a guilty person. That’s why all SJW’s have to do is scream “Racist, sexist, bigot” and win when cuckservatives roll over. It’s revitalizing to have a leader that refuses guilt for objectively correct words and deeds.
“Praise for dictators”
You mean popularly elected leaders? Like, say, Erdogan. Or whoever the Chinese premier is. How about Maduro? Chavez? Castro? People the SJW and progressive stripe had no problem with these guys. Now Putin appears, is a far better leader, and is far more popular with his own people, and therefore must be a dictator.
I suggest dropping the neocons and joining the Alt-Right. Love the fact that now there’s a leader that won’t piss down your neck and call it rain.
Remember Michael
… we’re in this together .
I did check to see if Weekly Readet has posted anything lately… it had one pol frm 9/2015. Nothing since. Its the only pol with 100% accuracy as far as I remember back.
The loyal Dems are laying a typical guilt trip on Bernie supporters. Supreme Court picks, even a Great Depression if Trump wins. But folks are pretty tired of bargaining with terrorists already.
A worse Great Depression if Billary wins. The Fed will keep the ponzi going and the bubbles will get even bigger and the pop will be heard round the world.
I’m with her:
http://clashdaily.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/qmeme_1468591690618_780.jpg
Göring: Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? … It is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.
The people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.
— Gustave Gilbert, interview recording of Hermann Göring for “Nuremberg Diary” (1947)
—-
The way people can be manipulated… at times I feel people get what they deserve.
Now look at the email leaks… how the Deep State is diverting the issue. The issue actually is “Are the emails leaks true? If yes, then the nomination process is patently wrong and the results stands cancelled.”
Instead the Deep State (politicians, regulators, media, lobbyists in bed together) have turned it around to “Who leaked the emails?”
They would have made Goring proud.
In that sense, Hitler and Goring were geniuses.
“The issue actually is “Are the emails leaks true? If yes, then the nomination process is patently wrong and the results stands cancelled.””
I originally thought the same thing, even comparing Wasserman-Schulz to Nixon. But that ptesumes the rules in the primaries are the same as in general elections.
I believe that the DNC and RNC could in theory eschew the pretense of primaries and simply choose a candidate by committee who goes straight to the general election. Of course, they would piss off their entire electorate. But that is essentially what the DNC did in the primaries. They sacrificed the support of the entire Sanders wing of the party.
Now comes the spectacle of Clinton needing the support of Republican neocons to win. If she wins, the Democratic Party will move rightward. The Republican Party will also move rightward.
There will truly be only one Party, but then we’ve known there’s only been one Party for a long, long time. There will be no more pretending is all.
The more I hear Trump talk the more I think he will tank on purpose as we get closer to election day. I think he is a Manchurian candidate after his private meeting with Bill Clinton prior to announcing his candidacy. After 2008 hillary was promised the next election by the DNC. They fixed the primary in her favor. The Clintons then knew in order to ensure success in the general election they needed someone willing to win the primary but lose the general. They got the loudest voice to ensure media coverage to drown out everyone else. They did everything they could to make sure trump got what he wanted – more media coverage than ever before. Trump will now go on to casually lose the election and seal a Clinton victory. The Clintons planned this after the infuriating loss in 2008 to Obama. An election that any Democrat would have won in 2008 given the disaster of the Republican white house then. The Clintons are geniuses playing the country for fools. And it has worked to a tee.
Had you concocted a similar conspiratorial tale a few years ago I would have suggested a full neurological workup. But in 2016 you offer a feasible theory that I won’t dismiss.
After the FBI and the AG let Hillary off the hook for obvious criminal violations of the law that placed the security of the nation in harms way I’m certain that those in power have a greater interest in giving immunity from justice to the elite rather than protecting the basic principles (eg. Equality Under the law) upon which America was founded.
I like Trump. He’s a straight talker and we haven’t had one of those nominated for POTUS for over a hundred years. But I’m not so stupid as to give him my undivided trust.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Hillary is nothing more than a modern day Jezebel. A vote for her is a vote for the final nail in America’s coffin.
The jury is out on Trump. Trust, but verify. But we have no other choice.
For the good of the Nation I hope you’re wrong, Sekar.
I didn’t want to believe it but the more I analyzed what and how things happen the more it became crystal clear. This may be the biggest con job in the history of America on a scale unprecedented.
If “The Clintons are geniuses playing the country for fools.” how did Hillary lose to Obama?
Bill would win again in a landslide. Against any living opponent.
…which is fantastic vindication for term limits. I wish we had them in the legislative and judicial branches.
That was 2008. Obama simply is more skilled at politics than Hilary and even they know it. Obama would defeat Hilary every time because she simply doesn’t have the personality he does. The Clintons needed a guy like Trump to get back to the white house so they hired their friend Donald Trump for the job. They even attended his wedding. The Christie’s trumps and clintons are friends outside of the public eye. The Clintons made sure no Obama would beat them this time.
“The more I hear Trump talk the more I think he will tank on purpose as we get closer to election day.”
You will be absolutely WRONG. Trump is absolutely in it to win it.
Right.
I don’t know that Trump will tank it on purpose. I do know that the major media are going to attack him very, very hard. They gave him a free pass during the primary season, but now that he’s the nominee, look for a fierce attack that is unprecedented in it’s bias.
That was a free pass?
Looks like the Democrats want to take the fight to Trump. Might also be a case of jitters…
Biden…”Trump cares about Middle Class. Give me a break.”
He expects people to believe Clinton cares about Middle class. I have to say Give me a break.
Bloomberg… “I am a New Yorker. I know a con artist when I see one.”
Looks like he can’t since he is speaking up for Clinton.
I do not know how Trump will turn out but that he is not from the political class is what he has going for him. I hope his communication plays this up to the hilt…
The time to show the political class the middle finger is here. I hope the people get it right instead of being the sheepie they have been till now…
Really I no longer worry about any of these stupid political runs anymore. Neither candidate is going to help the normal working person. Both will just continue to spend like there is no tomorrow. Even Trump will spend.
I imply will not vote for Hillary as she is a criminal that should have been indicted. I really do not care who wins. I will not lose a bit of sleep over it. My yellowdog friends are though LOL!
There all running scared. every one on both sides of the aisle knows they must stop Trump. Or the gravy train stops .
The politicians have underestimate their control of the message. They think the people hold what they say is held as truth.
People know when everyone is trying to tell people how to think about Trump they know they are being treated like mushrooms.
People see the results of the actions of those in power has destroyed the American Dream and EUROPE is a basket case .
People said “enough is enough we know the mold must be broken.”
Trump knows The government was formed to do one thing for the people protect the borders Or you do not have a country. That has resonated with the people. You don’t need a poll or throw millions of dollars to elect the same people who did nothings but make promises they had no intention to keep just to stay in office. People know its time we cleaned house from the top down.
“Neocons for Hillary”
Think about it. They don’t care what kind of a crook Hillary is.
leading neoconservative Robert Kagan told a group gathered around him, groupie-style, at a “foreign policy professionals for Hillary” fundraiser I attended last week. “I would say that a majority of people in my circle will vote for Hillary.”
People should just vote straight democrat then and throw the republicans completely out of office. With people like Kagan, who needs the republican party?