Today the Census Department released its first “Advance Economic Indicators Report”. The new report adds wholesale and retail inventories to its existing International Trade in Goods report.
For details see Trade Deficit Widens as Imports Rise More Than Exports; Advance Economic Indicators Initial Release.
Following the report, the GDPNow Forecast dropped 0.5 percentage points to 1.8%.
Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — July 28, 2016
The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.8 percent on July 28, down from 2.3 percent on July 27. After the U.S. Census Bureau’s inaugural release of its advance economic indicators report, which covers retail and wholesale inventories and foreign trade in goods, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.17 percentage points to –0.10 percentage points and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to growth declined from –0.63 percentage points to –0.79 percentage points.
That is the final DGPNow forecast for the second quarter.
The “Advance” BEA Gross Domestic Product, for 2nd quarter 2016 comes out tomorrow. The next GDPNow forecast will be for third quarter.
Note how lagging these BEA GDP reports are. The third quarter is nearly a third over and we will just now get data for the second quarter (and it will be revised again and again).
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“working in a coal mine going down down” Its the Devo economy…..
Whole Foods same store sales down 2.7% year on year was most telling. Whole Foods customers are generally price insensitive. Rich housewives sporting diamond rings have only one purpose in life, and that is to spend their husband’s money.
Tony Bennett said:
A canary coughing …
Ford Motor Company
2016Guidance: Expect another strong year of results,
and Ford committed to full year guidance of company pretax
profit and operating margin equal to or better than last
year; however, company now sees risks challenging
achieving guidance. Entire Ford team working to mitigate
Leasing has been escalating as percentage of new vehicle sales to current 1/3 of all sales. Vehicle manufacturers now have to compete with MILLIONS of newish used vehicles hitting the secondary market every year … for years to come.
Troy Ounce said:
Depending on the method, GDP calculations have a margin of error between 1,5 and 3%.
So what will it be? – 1,2% or +4.8%
If you’re gonna start reporting “massive loss season” now’s the time to do it. “Throw everything in including the kitchen sink.”
The Fed’s bubble, the Federal Government’s problem.
People are waiting for the driver-less cars.