In the “I will believe it when I see it category”, the Atlanta Fed 3rd quarter GDPNow Initial Forecast is 3.7%.
Latest forecast: 3.7 percent — August 4, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.7 percent on August 4, up from the initial third-quarter forecast of 3.6 percent on August 3. The final model nowcast for second-quarter real GDP growth was 1.8 percent, 0.6 percentage points above the advance estimate of 1.2 percent released on July 29 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York FRBNY “Nowcast” update comes out tomorrow. The July 29, forecast was 2.5%. There is nothing I am aware of to explain the massive difference.
Unless we see a huge jump up tomorrow in the FRBNY estimate tomorrow, at least one of these models is seriously wrong.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock