05 Friday Aug 2016
Posted | August 5, 2016 9:07:24 | Economics
In its commentary on jobs today, the Bloomberg Econoday writer made this claim “The hawks will come out of hiding following this report which definitely brings alive expectations for a rate hike at the September FOMC.”
Let’s compare that thought to the market reaction from CME Fedwatch.
September 2016 Rate Hike Odds
February 2017 Rate Hike Odds
Bloomberg, I have to ask: Is that a real human being writing your Econoday reports, or is it a robot in need of an AI revamp?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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What a surprise. Trump is winning and magically the jobs report comes out glowing.
……..surely a coincidence. NOT.
Trump is winning? LOL.
Trump winning? Who knows 4 sure?
So, what’s lifting both GDP and employment claims 90 days before an election? A surge in government spending? I’ve read an otherwise unsubstantiated claim elsewhere, where even a percentage figure was given, that the same trick was pulled in 2012.
This is the third estimate for Q3 2012.
Go to Table 1 row 22
Federal spending grew 9.5% over Q2
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2012/pdf/gdp3q12_3rd.pdf
As gold and silver prices deflate interest rates must rise.
So will taxes actually.
Massively so if the US real estate market particularly in Manhattan and San Francisco collapses.
Of course this is the Age of Puerto Rico so maybe State and Local Governments why Cry Poverty and just stop paying everybody.
That’s what California did in 2008.
September, 2017. That must have been what those FED mouthpieces meant when they said September was on the table.
To be fair, probability of a rate hike in September did double.
“The hawks will come out of hiding following this report which definitely brings alive expectations for a rate hike at the September FOMC.”
10yr yield surged, alright … surged back to where it was earlier in the week.
Janet is a Dim lackey. She won’t raise rates unless Trump wins.
#Rigged
Let’s stop fooling ourselves and think like adults.
We know they can’t raise the rates even to a moderate degree. In this debt bubble they’d blow the housing market and the economy sky high. It would be a catalyst for disaster. Eventually it will happen regardless of what they do. But if the PTB can continue to kick the can down the road temporarily using sleight of hand magic tricks, they will.
Why do you think they always find an excuse not to raise them after we’re lead to believe that the Fed will pull the trigger and kick them a half percent higher?
We’re screwed. But they’re giving you lots of time to prepare to protect yourselves from our meltdown fate. Don’t waste it. Store some nuts like the squirrels do in the Fall. Learn from nature.
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